Speaker and PC

That's pretty much the best possible outcome as both coalitions would require the Lib Dems which will mitigate much of the extremism - either Lab/SNP/LD or Con/Lib/Random nationalists/UKIP.

If they don't get PR this time, they deserve oblivion.

ComRes poll of UKIP-CON target seats (17 - 19 Apr):
CON - 39% (-7)
LAB - 28% (+2)
UKIP - 21% (+15)
LDEM - 5% (-10)
GRN - 4% (+4)


Not great for the kippers

That was the average across 10 seats, I assume that UKIP will be concentrating their efforts on just a few of those in the hope of winning 2 or 3 seats.

https://twitter.com/ComResPolls

The big factor in my eyes is how many of those who currently say they will vote Green or UKIP but on the day stick to the mainstream with Labour and the Tory's. Everyone is aware that it he polls are the closest in memory and may give the big party's one last chance to prevent the other getting in.

Part of the problem is that most people only think about politics when the Government does something that angers them or during an election. They have no idea that UKIP may be on 13% but the chances of getting seats are slim. If they vote UKIP in a Labour area thinking they'll get UKIP, then unless EVERYONE votes UKIP then Labour will still get elected. It seems perverse that the only guarantee of a vote on the EU (which UKIP voters feel passionately about) is a Tory vote, yet they're likely going to get further integration into Europe with a Labour/SNP Alliance.

Why don't the media educate voters better?

Anyway, based on your theory, here is my prediction:

Labour: 268 seats
Conservatives: 297 seats
LibDems 28 seats
SNP 43 seats
DUP 8 seats
Plaid: 3 seats
UKIP: 2 seats
Others 4

This could potentially give Tories a majority of 8 if they join forces with LD and DUP.
Or Labour a majority of 13 if they join forces with SNP and LD. The Lib's could end up more crucial than we currently realise.

Except that the left wing voters no longer care about what happens to the Libdems, even if they lose seats to the Tories.

Does anyone have a latest opinion poll for Northern Ireland, please? Will the DUP claim enough seats to be able to prop up a Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition?

I wish the media would educate people better on how a Parliamentary democracy works.

To the contrary, in the rest of Europe, it's commonplace for parties to get allocated seats broadly according to their share of their vote in an election* and so coalition governments and minority governments are the norm.

In the 2011 Danish election, the Social Democrats actually came in second place behind the centre-right Venstre Liberal party (venstre actually means 'left' though!) but the centre-left parties overall had more votes so a three party centre-left coalition (yes, it can happen, it can last and it can work well) assumed power and that coalition is currently running Denmark until the next election which will probably be in autumn this year.

Link: http://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Folketingsvalget_2011

*Note: to many people, that might actually seem to be a fair way of doing things.

Thanks for yet another patronising post. You really do know how produce them!

I know how it works thanks. But many millions don't. That's why so many are confused when LibDems get a few seats when their percentage score is higher. I said nothing in my post that suggested I wasn't aware of how it works.

Constitutionally it is whichever party which can form a government. That party does not even have to get the largest vote share or the majority of seats - as was the case when Harold Wilson formed the Labour government after the Feb 1974 election.

I know it's more common in other parts of Europe to have a no majority government, I guess I am just used to seeing majority governments in the UK.

That and I am not the biggest fan of the prospect of a Lab/SNP or Lab rainbow coalition. Even though I despise everything Labour stand for and don't trust Miliband one bit I would take a majority Lab government over a left wing coalition as this election outcome (if they were the only two options).

Interesting poll.

I note it says that 1.007 people were contacted but that's a very small number for 10 constituencies - ony about 100 per constituency.

Grouping them together also means that two or three narrow leads would be washed out by a constituency where they are lagging.

Of the 10 constituencies considered, I'd say that only Thurrock, South Thanet, Boston & Skegness and possibly Castle Point offer realistic chances of winning.

The First Past The Post voting has artificially prolonged alternating Con/Lab rule for decades but it finally broke down in 2010 because so many people were voting for other parties and all the opinion polls indicate that that scenario will again repeat itself on May 7 this year.

I don't expect the old voting patterns to return at all so we shall just have to get used to more inter-party negotiations, coalitions and confidence and supply agreements from now on. I'm not troubled by this at all since the UK has a stable political culture and I am sure that some colourful form of viable government will eventually emerge.

Correct -- but the poster was stating that it was madness that a party with the highest vote- or seat- share might not gain power.

I was trying to point out that this isn't madness at all. It's purely down to whether the maths add up regarding being able to keep a government stable, regardless of what parties make it up. You would have thought by now that people would have realised that a plurality of either votes or seats guarantees precisely nothing.

It's quite a similar poll to the LD one in the SW last week -- with similar caveats.

What it does highlight though is how difficult it is likely to be for UKIP to gain many seats -- these were highlighted as the most likely UKIP targets a few months back and this poll would suggest that most of them are likely no-hopers.

But you can't expect people to realise something that they're not familiar with. In the UK, our mindset is to regard "winning" as the biggest, first, not second. It is something our elections have been producing for most of our lifetimes. To suddenly see the landscape change is quite confusing and, unnerving for many, including myself. In a couple of General Elections time I and others will be used to it so it will no longer be an issue. But familiarity is something we all like, and when things break away from what is familiar to us, it makes us a bit unsettled.

We won't get voters to appreciate a more pluralistic less winner takes all the power parliament by encouraging them to think Scots votes specifically for the SNP are worth less or somehow illegitmet.

Opinion polls are consistently showing no one party is trusted by the public to hold power.

It isn't about legitamising the votes of the Scots. It's about representation. Perhaps PR is the way forward. It is no different for English voters complaining about SNP MP's holding the balance of power to what Scots say about The Tories. "We didn't vote for them so we can't accept them" is what is said constantly. I am being swayed to the idea of true representation. A Government made up of members from each party from all across the UK. but, we're a long way off from that because whatever the outcome on May 8th, both Labour and Conservatives will still be thinking they will get a majority in the next election so FPTP won't be going anywhere until at least 2030.

Just had a quick look at Matthew Goodwin's Twitter feed (he's an academic who's following Ukip's campaign) and apparently half the seats on that list are not targets.

But yes, I don't think they will get many seats. If they get 5 or more, I think they will have done very well. Could conceivably be as many as 10 but that needs them to win all their narrow marginals.

The problem is that the 'targets' are a moving, err, target.

It seems to me that the real target list is South Thanet, the two ex-Tory seats, and maybe Thurrock and Grimsby (where they don't stand a realistic chance anyway). That's it. If they win anywhere else it'll be a shock to just about everyone.

Aside from the seats you mention, they also have a very strong chance in Boston & Skegness and Castle Point. In fact, I think those seats are more likely than Rochester and South Thanet.

I think Heywood & Middleton and Dudley North are getting some attention too.

Clacton
Rochester
South Thanet
Thurrock
Great Grimsby
Great Yarmouth
Skeggie
Camborne


For a start.
LDs IMO, will be lucky to make 25.

I also think thy got a good chance in Rotherham & Castle Point too