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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 18-06-2016, 20:15
MARTYM8
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Lord Sugar is betting that Cameron will be out by Friday.haha
He is only betting £5k on it - for him that's the equivalent of 50p for us mere mortals.
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Old 18-06-2016, 20:30
BanglaRoad
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Given recent events I would certainly not come out as a Brexiter in London to acquaintances or people I did not know well. It's just not worth the hassle. In the current climate I would expect a certain shy Brexit factor - with remain before it was more a shrug of the shoulders and let's stay in even of the EU isn't perfect.

I have no real idea whether any of this will influence the polls - but as we saw in 2010 what people tell pollsters as they think it's the right answer and what they do in the privacy of the ballot box may not be the same.

I expect remain to win - the only time I didn't was on Thursday morning after that MORI poll. But stranger things have happened - events have certain parallels to the Swedish 2003 Vote on joining the Euro.
That's twice you've mentioned Sweden 2003 Marty.
Is there anything specific you want to say? After all everyone is entitled to an opinion, no matter how far fetched it may be.
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Old 18-06-2016, 20:36
howard h
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If the poll in the Guardian is to be believed; it's neck-and-neck. Wonder of the pollsters have asked anyone in Gibraltar which way they will vote, if they haven't there's 25000+ votes to Remain to add, which could just swing it.

Anyhow, this vote is gonna cost me a liver. 12 midnight onwards and it might not be decided by breakfast...how many bottles of red is that? Arrrrgghhh....
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Old 18-06-2016, 20:37
MARTYM8
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That's twice you've mentioned Sweden 2003 Marty.
Is there anything specific you want to say? After all everyone is entitled to an opinion, no matter how far fetched it may be.
I am merely approaching it from the fact that a terrible tragedy occurred and a prominent and well respected pro Euro politician - the foreign minister - was murdered days before the vote - and the anti Euro side still won. It merely showed that people felt horror at what happened to her - but it didn't apparently material affect how they voted in the end.

Isn't that what pollsters will be trying to gauge - Comres have already talked about post and pre 2pm samples which was hardly subtle.

I will leave what I hope you aren't implying to the likes of Oliver Stone.

Anyway am done for a bit - off to the cinema. Independence Day isn't out till Friday so we are off to enjoy Julia Roberts instead.
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Old 18-06-2016, 20:40
BanglaRoad
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I am merely approaching it from the fact that a terrible tragedy occurred and a prominent and well respected pro Euro politician - the foreign minister - was murdered days before the vote - and the anti Euro side still won. It merely showed that people felt horror at what happened to her - but it didn't apparently materially affect how they voted in the end.

Isn't that what pollsters will be trying to gauge - Comres have already talked about post and pre 2pm samples which was hardly subtle.
Fair enough. Just been reading in another place some conspiracy about Mair being some sort of parse and it was a government set up.
Felt I had to ask and thanks for a straight answer.
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Old 18-06-2016, 20:57
welshfoxy
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Anyway am done for a bit - off to the cinema. Independence Day isn't out till Friday so we are off to enjoy Julia Roberts instead.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:04
Chirpy_Chicken
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When are the 2 youguv polls due out?
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:06
culttvfan
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Interesting you mention Tony Benn and how his words stand the test of time - his debate with Roy Jenkins in the 1975 campaign was shown on BBC Parliament the other week and a caller to Iain Dale on LBC said she had watched it and made her mind up to vote leave on the strength of it, as the issues they discussed were largely the same as now - and she's right!

It's available here, and the quality of debate on both sides seems so much better than what we've had this time round.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07f54sj
That's brilliant. I was only a schoolkid at the time so didn't really take any interest in what was going on. You gotta love Tony Benn in this. If he'd still been around today all bets would be off.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:11
aurichie
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When are the 2 youguv polls due out?
I hope we get some good news tonight. This has been a really horrible week.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:15
Chirpy_Chicken
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I hope we get some good news tonight. This has been a really horrible week.
I dont think any poll is good news either way, just interesting
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:15
razorboy
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Oh I'm sure there are Remain voters in the older age groups, just like there are Brexit voters in the younger group. It's not patronising, I'm just commenting on the facts of the numbers and breakdowns.
Not saying it is a scientifically representative sample but I was at a U3A discussion group recently where we were unanimous for Remain, it was unusual to have such unanimity and a few of us deliberately played devils advocate to ensure different views got heard. I do not know the age of everyone there but I think I was the youngest and I will shortly be celebrating my 60th birthday. I have no doubt you could find other U3A groups with the opposite makeup
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:25
boddism
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Not saying it is a scientifically representative sample but I was at a U3A discussion grounp recently where we were unanimous for Remain, it was unusual to have such unanimity and a few of us deliberately played devils advocate to ensure different views got heard. I do not know the age of everyone there but I think I was the youngest and I will shortly be celebrating my 60th birthday. I have no doubt you could find other U3A groups with the opposite makeup
Interestingly I saw a poll of the split by age group & the oldest group (over 80s) were (only just) in FAVOUR of Remain. The reason why this is note worthy is it puts out the theory that OAPs are overwhelmingly pro Brexit & also this is the only generation that can recall WW2 & the beginnings of the EU.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:31
James2001
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Remain: 45% (+3)
Leave: 42% (-3)
(via Survation, phone / 17 - 18 Jun)
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:33
Chirpy_Chicken
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Remain: 45% (+3)
Leave: 42% (-3)
(via Survation, phone / 17 - 18 Jun)
On dear is this the Joe Cox effect then...... i kinda knew it would happen...
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:34
MargMck
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That's brilliant. I was only a schoolkid at the time so didn't really take any interest in what was going on. You gotta love Tony Benn in this. If he'd still been around today all bets would be off.
Yes, I believe he would still inspire the young to think about democracy.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:35
roth30
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On dear is this the Joe Cox effect then...... i kinda knew it would happen...
Think it more the phone polling back to how it was. Still in margin of error as well.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:37
Chirpy_Chicken
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from twitter:

Has BMG lost the plot here? They add 2/3 of don't knows as #remain@to get a 6% lead instead of ignoring them. #EUref
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:40
inothernews
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On dear is this the Joe Cox effect then...... i kinda knew it would happen...
If people value democracy they really shouldn't change their mind- otherwise one madman has influenced the polls (and potentially result)

A sympathy vote whilst understandable is really wrong.

It only takes 3 in a hundred to change their mind- which is exactly what's happened.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:41
welshfoxy
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I hope we get some good news tonight. This has been a really horrible week.
Your disgusting posts continue. The implication that "good news" would be a lead for Remain, after the death of one of its supporters? You should work for some political spin doctor (if you don't already), your patronising and disingenuous posts are just disgraceful.

I'm past caring about the result now.
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:45
Chirpy_Chicken
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If people value democracy they really shouldn't change their mind- otherwise one madman has influenced the polls (and potentially result)

A sympathy vote whilst understandable is really wrong.

It only takes 3 in a hundred to change their mind- which is exactly what's happened.
Exactly,i know we shouldnt read much into this polls etc etc, but you really cant help thinking a lot of people have changed their mind

Maybe a wet day to keep the fickle remainers inside lol
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:55
Chirpy_Chicken
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U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% LEAVE, 42% REMAIN: YOUGOV/ITV
(sorry for caps)
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:58
Chirpy_Chicken
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UK: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU or leave the EU? YouGov:

Remain: 49% (+3)
Leave: 51% (-3)

still a lead,but shows the possible affect as earlier mentioned,
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Old 18-06-2016, 21:59
inothernews
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U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% LEAVE, 42% REMAIN: YOUGOV/ITV
(sorry for caps)
Is that poll all yesterday and today?
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:01
Chirpy_Chicken
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Is that poll all yesterday and today?
I dont know sorry just saw it on twitter
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:02
Chirpy_Chicken
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
EU referendum poll:
Remain: 42% (+3)
Leave: 44% (-2)
(via YouGov, online / 15 - 16 Jun)
Chgs. from 12 - 13 Jun
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