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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#5626 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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Quote:
Lord Sugar is betting that Cameron will be out by Friday.haha
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#5627 |
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Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Stirling/Windsor/Overseas
Posts: 14,360
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Quote:
Given recent events I would certainly not come out as a Brexiter in London to acquaintances or people I did not know well. It's just not worth the hassle. In the current climate I would expect a certain shy Brexit factor - with remain before it was more a shrug of the shoulders and let's stay in even of the EU isn't perfect.
I have no real idea whether any of this will influence the polls - but as we saw in 2010 what people tell pollsters as they think it's the right answer and what they do in the privacy of the ballot box may not be the same. I expect remain to win - the only time I didn't was on Thursday morning after that MORI poll. But stranger things have happened - events have certain parallels to the Swedish 2003 Vote on joining the Euro. Is there anything specific you want to say? After all everyone is entitled to an opinion, no matter how far fetched it may be. |
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#5628 |
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Gtr Manchester UK
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If the poll in the Guardian is to be believed; it's neck-and-neck. Wonder of the pollsters have asked anyone in Gibraltar which way they will vote, if they haven't there's 25000+ votes to Remain to add, which could just swing it.
Anyhow, this vote is gonna cost me a liver. 12 midnight onwards and it might not be decided by breakfast...how many bottles of red is that? Arrrrgghhh.... |
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#5629 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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Quote:
That's twice you've mentioned Sweden 2003 Marty.
Is there anything specific you want to say? After all everyone is entitled to an opinion, no matter how far fetched it may be. Isn't that what pollsters will be trying to gauge - Comres have already talked about post and pre 2pm samples which was hardly subtle. I will leave what I hope you aren't implying to the likes of Oliver Stone. Anyway am done for a bit - off to the cinema. Independence Day isn't out till Friday so we are off to enjoy Julia Roberts instead. |
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#5630 |
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Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Stirling/Windsor/Overseas
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I am merely approaching it from the fact that a terrible tragedy occurred and a prominent and well respected pro Euro politician - the foreign minister - was murdered days before the vote - and the anti Euro side still won. It merely showed that people felt horror at what happened to her - but it didn't apparently materially affect how they voted in the end.
Isn't that what pollsters will be trying to gauge - Comres have already talked about post and pre 2pm samples which was hardly subtle. Felt I had to ask and thanks for a straight answer. |
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#5631 |
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,862
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Anyway am done for a bit - off to the cinema. Independence Day isn't out till Friday so we are off to enjoy Julia Roberts instead. ![]() ![]()
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#5632 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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When are the 2 youguv polls due out?
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#5633 |
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Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Interesting you mention Tony Benn and how his words stand the test of time - his debate with Roy Jenkins in the 1975 campaign was shown on BBC Parliament the other week and a caller to Iain Dale on LBC said she had watched it and made her mind up to vote leave on the strength of it, as the issues they discussed were largely the same as now - and she's right!
It's available here, and the quality of debate on both sides seems so much better than what we've had this time round. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07f54sj |
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#5634 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5,100
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Quote:
When are the 2 youguv polls due out?
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#5635 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Quote:
I hope we get some good news tonight. This has been a really horrible week.
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#5636 |
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Brighton
Posts: 4,923
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Quote:
Oh I'm sure there are Remain voters in the older age groups, just like there are Brexit voters in the younger group. It's not patronising, I'm just commenting on the facts of the numbers and breakdowns.
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#5637 |
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: South Coast
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Quote:
Not saying it is a scientifically representative sample but I was at a U3A discussion grounp recently where we were unanimous for Remain, it was unusual to have such unanimity and a few of us deliberately played devils advocate to ensure different views got heard. I do not know the age of everyone there but I think I was the youngest and I will shortly be celebrating my 60th birthday. I have no doubt you could find other U3A groups with the opposite makeup
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#5638 |
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Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Mansfield
Posts: 27,530
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Remain: 45% (+3)
Leave: 42% (-3) (via Survation, phone / 17 - 18 Jun) |
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#5639 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Quote:
Remain: 45% (+3)
Leave: 42% (-3) (via Survation, phone / 17 - 18 Jun) |
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#5640 |
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Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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Quote:
That's brilliant. I was only a schoolkid at the time so didn't really take any interest in what was going on. You gotta love Tony Benn in this. If he'd still been around today all bets would be off.
Yes, I believe he would still inspire the young to think about democracy.
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#5641 |
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 3,198
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Quote:
On dear is this the Joe Cox effect then...... i kinda knew it would happen...
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#5642 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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from twitter:
Has BMG lost the plot here? They add 2/3 of don't knows as #remain@to get a 6% lead instead of ignoring them. #EUref |
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#5643 |
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Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,045
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Quote:
On dear is this the Joe Cox effect then...... i kinda knew it would happen...
A sympathy vote whilst understandable is really wrong. It only takes 3 in a hundred to change their mind- which is exactly what's happened. |
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#5644 |
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,862
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Quote:
I hope we get some good news tonight. This has been a really horrible week.
I'm past caring about the result now. |
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#5645 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Quote:
If people value democracy they really shouldn't change their mind- otherwise one madman has influenced the polls (and potentially result)
A sympathy vote whilst understandable is really wrong. It only takes 3 in a hundred to change their mind- which is exactly what's happened. Maybe a wet day to keep the fickle remainers inside lol |
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#5646 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% LEAVE, 42% REMAIN: YOUGOV/ITV
(sorry for caps) |
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#5647 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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UK: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU or leave the EU? YouGov:
Remain: 49% (+3) Leave: 51% (-3) still a lead,but shows the possible affect as earlier mentioned, |
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#5648 |
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Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,045
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Quote:
U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 44% LEAVE, 42% REMAIN: YOUGOV/ITV
(sorry for caps) |
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#5649 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Quote:
Is that poll all yesterday and today?
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#5650 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Britain Elects @britainelects 1m1 minute ago
EU referendum poll: Remain: 42% (+3) Leave: 44% (-2) (via YouGov, online / 15 - 16 Jun) Chgs. from 12 - 13 Jun |
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Yes, I believe he would still inspire the young to think about democracy.