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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 18-06-2016, 22:41
roth30
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These polls clash with Thursday's sad events. Should be taken with caution people emotions where running high. Once they calm down they see things differently again. I will wait for polls near polling day.

Hopefully they will have some on Wednesday and we will get a better picture how the ground lies.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:42
aurichie
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I assume opinion polls factor in that those who want change are far more likely to vote (because they passionately want change) whereas Remain might be less determined to vote come what may.
Exactly why brexiters are praying for rain (see a few posts before me, for example) because they hope it will dissuade many remain supporters from going and exercising their democratic right. Awful really, but they don't care how they win as long as they win.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:42
Chirpy_Chicken
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What we need for remain to win is the following:
Wet weather in the right areas of the country
People who were possibly going to vote remain and cant be bothered
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:45
Mr_XcX
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Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.

What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:47
roth30
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Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.

What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain.
Do you know who remain have on?

Lets hope its Rudd and Eagle.

Looks like remain is Michael Fallon Alan Johnson and maybe Baroness Brady.

Well a Tory and a Baroness that will go down well with northern towns.

Least the Brexit people are more down to earth and will resonate more with Northern voters.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:48
Christopher D
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Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.

What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain.
Nothing wrong with Unity, its what I am hoping will happen after all this whatever the result.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:49
Mr_XcX
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Nothing wrong with Unity, its what I am hoping will happen after all this whatever the result.
I mean that Remain try and say it is all Brexit that are causing divisions.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:53
Mr_XcX
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Do you know who remain have on?

Lets hope its Rudd and Eagle.
Sadiq Khan is one for Remainers.

Its 3 vs 3 with Wembley audience.

Hope its an intelligent audience with balanced views and don't just boo each person so they cannot speak.

Then I think a day before the vote Paxman is interviewing different sides. We don't know who that will be.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:54
Christopher D
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I mean that Remain try and say it is all Brexit that are causing divisions.
I don't think they need to. Its up to people to make their minds up on what kind of campaign either side is running.
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Old 18-06-2016, 22:58
Last Kingdom
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Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.

What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain.
I've got two tickets for this debate looking forward to it
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Old 18-06-2016, 23:00
Eurostar
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I've got two tickets for this debate looking forward to it
When is the Wembley debate by the way?
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:34
boddism
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In other words the country will be even more divided.

Not that Remain care.
The country will still be divided if there's a Leave vote! Only a very distinct win by either side will make the outcomes secure & that's not gonna happen.

I suspect in the event of a Remain win UKIP will have a surge at first- but look at the long term prospects. A EU Referendum has been UKIP's raison D'etre for a long time, a loss will be a psychological blow whatever the margin of victory, and let's not kid ourselves-the Tories will not want to go near an EU Ref or anything of that ilk for a while. Whichever side is victorious will shape the Tory party for the next few years.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:40
roth30
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Thing is these polls are just guess work really. They have no previous poll data they can use to verify results. That's why they cant do an exit poll. If they can't to an exit poll for that reason how are they doing these.??
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:40
MARTYM8
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When is the Wembley debate by the way?
Tuesday night.

Leave have their dream team up again - Gisela , Andrea and Boris. I believe Sadiq Khan and Ruth Davidson are appearing for remain.

So we will see what happens - maybe the polls could be widely wrong. Will younger voters turn out - pensioners will whatever the weather as they have all day. Will there have been shy Brexiters not keen on expressing their views correctly to the pollsters in the last couple of days And what about the millions of votes already cast by post - will they have been cast differently so don't match the polls as they are now.

Remain should win this - but we may all be surprised by the results as we were in May 2010 and 2015.

PS Julia Roberts and Jennifer Aniston were mildly entertaining at the cinema tonight. Only in Britain would they release a film called Mothers day just before Father's Day. Still a feel good movie was in order after this awful week - looking forward to Independence day next weekend though!
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:43
Aneechik
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The country will still be divided if there's a Leave vote! Only a very distinct win by either side will make the outcomes secure & that's not gonna happen.

I suspect in the event of a Remain win UKIP will have a surge at first- but look at the long term prospects. A EU Referendum has been UKIP's raison D'etre for a long time, a loss will be a psychological blow whatever the margin of victory, and let's not kid ourselves-the Tories will not want to go near an EU Ref or anything of that ilk for a while. Whichever side is victorious will shape the Tory party for the next few years.
i think Labour will be the one to watch - look what happened to them in Scotland after sharing a platform with the Tories and campaigning against something their core voters supported.

In England, I can't think of anyone but UKIP that could actually benefit from this.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:49
boddism
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Tuesday night.

Leave have their dream team up again - Gisela , Andrea and Boris. I believe Sadiq Khan and Ruth Davidson are appearing for remain.

So we will see what happens - maybe the polls could be widely wrong. Will younger voters turn out - pensioners will whatever the weather as they have all day. Will there have been shy Brexiters not keen on expressing their views correctly to the pollsters in the last couple of days And what about the millions of votes already cast by post - will they have been cast differently so don't match the polls as they are now.

Remain should win this - but we may all be surprised by the results as we were in May 2010 and 2015.
I wasn't in 2010 or 2015. In fact 2015 was blindingly obvious & I was gobsmacked that the Tories couldn't predict it.

I think the result will go as 2015- for the status quo. There's a lot of "quiet voters" -because giving a Brexit vote is quite a populist position, I expect quite a large chunk of the quiet ones will be Remainers in the polling booth
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:53
boddism
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i think Labour will be the one to watch - look what happened to them in Scotland after sharing a platform with the Tories and campaigning against something their core voters supported.

In England, I can't think of anyone but UKIP that could actually benefit from this.
What will happen to UKIP going forward in the long term?

In the short term there would certainly be a boost in popularity, but longer term, in a RemAin scenario, we'll end up with a more Remain centred Tory party & the public will tire of post Referndum bickering as the whole experience has already been fractious & I think we can all agree we'll all be relieved when it's over with.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:57
roth30
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I wasn't in 2010 or 2015. In fact 2015 was blindingly obvious & I was gobsmacked that the Tories couldn't predict it.

I think the result will go as 2015- for the status quo. There's a lot of "quiet voters" -because giving a Brexit vote is quite a populist position, I expect quite a large chunk of the quiet ones will be Remainers in the polling booth
I think the result will shock a lot of people either way. Don't think we can count on any of the old rules regarding voting in this referendum there just so many unknowns.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:58
NorthernNinny
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I think most have decided already, only the fence sitters may possibly be swayed by Thursday's events.
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Old 19-06-2016, 00:59
steve9999
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i think Labour will be the one to watch - look what happened to them in Scotland after sharing a platform with the Tories and campaigning against something their core voters supported.

In England, I can't think of anyone but UKIP that could actually benefit from this.
I agree. Whatever way the vote goes labour are in big trouble. I actually think if the vote is remain they will be even bigger trouble. Scotland really is the blueprint imho
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:08
Eurostar
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I think most have decided already, only the fence sitters may possibly be swayed by Thursday's events.
Even if there was a temporary swing of some description in the opinion polls because of Jo's murder, I doubt that will come into play once people are in the polling booth - the referendum is still five days away.
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:09
roth30
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Even if there was a temporary swing of some description in the opinion polls because of Jo's murder, I doubt that will come into play once people are in the polling booth - the referendum is still five days away.
My thoughts also usually these bounces after an event like this tend to revert back over the following days.
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:14
Eurostar
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My thoughts also usually these bounces after an event like this tend to revert back over the following days.
I think too for something to alter a referendum result, it would have to be something far more dramatic, horrific though Jo's murder was - a major terrorist attack or something.
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:19
boddism
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I think most have decided already, only the fence sitters may possibly be swayed by Thursday's events.
Remain have been focusing on the fence sitters all along. Hence Project Fear.

In many ways this is similar to the IndyRef. The Outers in IndyRef were arguing for a new order, idealistic in tone & vague in details. The In side were on the side of maintaining the stays quo. Unlike IndyRef this one won't be so clear cut in its result.
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Old 19-06-2016, 01:33
MARTYM8
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I wasn't in 2010 or 2015. In fact 2015 was blindingly obvious & I was gobsmacked that the Tories couldn't predict it.

I think the result will go as 2015- for the status quo. There's a lot of "quiet voters" -because giving a Brexit vote is quite a populist position, I expect quite a large chunk of the quiet ones will be Remainers in the polling booth
Blindingly obvious? I thought almost all the experts were telling us otherwise - and as us leave voters are always told the experts are always right.
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