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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#5676 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 3,198
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These polls clash with Thursday's sad events. Should be taken with caution people emotions where running high. Once they calm down they see things differently again. I will wait for polls near polling day.
Hopefully they will have some on Wednesday and we will get a better picture how the ground lies. |
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#5677 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 5,100
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Quote:
I assume opinion polls factor in that those who want change are far more likely to vote (because they passionately want change) whereas Remain might be less determined to vote come what may.
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#5678 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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What we need for remain to win is the following:
Wet weather in the right areas of the country People who were possibly going to vote remain and cant be bothered |
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#5679 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 22,568
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Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.
What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain. |
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#5680 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 3,198
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Quote:
Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.
What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain. Lets hope its Rudd and Eagle. Looks like remain is Michael Fallon Alan Johnson and maybe Baroness Brady. Well a Tory and a Baroness that will go down well with northern towns. Least the Brexit people are more down to earth and will resonate more with Northern voters. |
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#5681 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,249
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Quote:
Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.
What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain. |
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#5682 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 22,568
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Nothing wrong with Unity, its what I am hoping will happen after all this whatever the result.
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#5683 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 22,568
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Do you know who remain have on?
Lets hope its Rudd and Eagle. Its 3 vs 3 with Wembley audience. Hope its an intelligent audience with balanced views and don't just boo each person so they cannot speak. Then I think a day before the vote Paxman is interviewing different sides. We don't know who that will be. |
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#5684 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,249
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I mean that Remain try and say it is all Brexit that are causing divisions.
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#5685 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 2,127
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Quote:
Boris and Gisela are on the debate at Wembley. Hopefully they can put in a good case.
What the betting the Remain side uses the new "Calm Down" "Stop the hate" "Unity" taglines to try and keep undecided voters with Remain. |
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#5686 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,658
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Quote:
I've got two tickets for this debate looking forward to it
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#5687 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: South Coast
Posts: 16,045
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Quote:
In other words the country will be even more divided.
Not that Remain care. I suspect in the event of a Remain win UKIP will have a surge at first- but look at the long term prospects. A EU Referendum has been UKIP's raison D'etre for a long time, a loss will be a psychological blow whatever the margin of victory, and let's not kid ourselves-the Tories will not want to go near an EU Ref or anything of that ilk for a while. Whichever side is victorious will shape the Tory party for the next few years. |
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#5688 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 3,198
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Thing is these polls are just guess work really. They have no previous poll data they can use to verify results. That's why they cant do an exit poll. If they can't to an exit poll for that reason how are they doing these.??
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#5689 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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Quote:
When is the Wembley debate by the way?
Leave have their dream team up again - Gisela , Andrea and Boris. I believe Sadiq Khan and Ruth Davidson are appearing for remain. So we will see what happens - maybe the polls could be widely wrong. Will younger voters turn out - pensioners will whatever the weather as they have all day. Will there have been shy Brexiters not keen on expressing their views correctly to the pollsters in the last couple of days And what about the millions of votes already cast by post - will they have been cast differently so don't match the polls as they are now. Remain should win this - but we may all be surprised by the results as we were in May 2010 and 2015. PS Julia Roberts and Jennifer Aniston were mildly entertaining at the cinema tonight. Only in Britain would they release a film called Mothers day just before Father's Day. Still a feel good movie was in order after this awful week - looking forward to Independence day next weekend though! |
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#5690 |
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Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Mount Olympus
Posts: 18,239
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The country will still be divided if there's a Leave vote! Only a very distinct win by either side will make the outcomes secure & that's not gonna happen.
I suspect in the event of a Remain win UKIP will have a surge at first- but look at the long term prospects. A EU Referendum has been UKIP's raison D'etre for a long time, a loss will be a psychological blow whatever the margin of victory, and let's not kid ourselves-the Tories will not want to go near an EU Ref or anything of that ilk for a while. Whichever side is victorious will shape the Tory party for the next few years. In England, I can't think of anyone but UKIP that could actually benefit from this. |
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#5691 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: South Coast
Posts: 16,045
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Quote:
Tuesday night.
Leave have their dream team up again - Gisela , Andrea and Boris. I believe Sadiq Khan and Ruth Davidson are appearing for remain. So we will see what happens - maybe the polls could be widely wrong. Will younger voters turn out - pensioners will whatever the weather as they have all day. Will there have been shy Brexiters not keen on expressing their views correctly to the pollsters in the last couple of days And what about the millions of votes already cast by post - will they have been cast differently so don't match the polls as they are now. Remain should win this - but we may all be surprised by the results as we were in May 2010 and 2015. I think the result will go as 2015- for the status quo. There's a lot of "quiet voters" -because giving a Brexit vote is quite a populist position, I expect quite a large chunk of the quiet ones will be Remainers in the polling booth |
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#5692 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: South Coast
Posts: 16,045
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i think Labour will be the one to watch - look what happened to them in Scotland after sharing a platform with the Tories and campaigning against something their core voters supported.
In England, I can't think of anyone but UKIP that could actually benefit from this. In the short term there would certainly be a boost in popularity, but longer term, in a RemAin scenario, we'll end up with a more Remain centred Tory party & the public will tire of post Referndum bickering as the whole experience has already been fractious & I think we can all agree we'll all be relieved when it's over with. |
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#5693 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 3,198
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I wasn't in 2010 or 2015. In fact 2015 was blindingly obvious & I was gobsmacked that the Tories couldn't predict it.
I think the result will go as 2015- for the status quo. There's a lot of "quiet voters" -because giving a Brexit vote is quite a populist position, I expect quite a large chunk of the quiet ones will be Remainers in the polling booth |
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#5694 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Manchester
Posts: 15,099
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I think most have decided already, only the fence sitters may possibly be swayed by Thursday's events.
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#5695 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 820
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Quote:
i think Labour will be the one to watch - look what happened to them in Scotland after sharing a platform with the Tories and campaigning against something their core voters supported.
In England, I can't think of anyone but UKIP that could actually benefit from this. |
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#5696 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,658
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Quote:
I think most have decided already, only the fence sitters may possibly be swayed by Thursday's events.
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#5697 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 3,198
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Quote:
Even if there was a temporary swing of some description in the opinion polls because of Jo's murder, I doubt that will come into play once people are in the polling booth - the referendum is still five days away.
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#5698 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,658
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Quote:
My thoughts also usually these bounces after an event like this tend to revert back over the following days.
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#5699 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: South Coast
Posts: 16,045
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Quote:
I think most have decided already, only the fence sitters may possibly be swayed by Thursday's events.
In many ways this is similar to the IndyRef. The Outers in IndyRef were arguing for a new order, idealistic in tone & vague in details. The In side were on the side of maintaining the stays quo. Unlike IndyRef this one won't be so clear cut in its result. |
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#5700 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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Quote:
I wasn't in 2010 or 2015. In fact 2015 was blindingly obvious & I was gobsmacked that the Tories couldn't predict it.
I think the result will go as 2015- for the status quo. There's a lot of "quiet voters" -because giving a Brexit vote is quite a populist position, I expect quite a large chunk of the quiet ones will be Remainers in the polling booth
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