Of those, only Clacton seems like a safe bet. South Thanet and Rochester & Strood appear to be on a knife-edge; Thurrock is complicated as it seems to be a three-way marginal, and tactical voting could spoil UKIP's chances there. Great Grimsby could go to UKIP but Labour remains favourite to win it, and the Tories seem to be still favourites to win Boston & Skegness, Camborne & Redruth and Great Yarmouth (though Coral thinks UKIP might just scrape into Great Yarmouth).


25 seats would be in line with projections, give or take a few.

Dream on. Bit surprising that UKIP are holding steady at around 13% despite a lacklustre campaign, but that will probably translate into 1-3 seats.

Yes but those Scots who say that are arguing to be taken out of the Westminster system completely. Whereas the Westminster system was begging them to stay only months ago.

People should direct their rage at the main parties who are trying to keep fptp rather than misdirected rage at the SNP. Westminister likes the rules to these elections until It gives them a result they don't want and then they bring up legitimacy issues.

Tonight's YouGov:

CON 33% (-2)
LAB 34%
LD 7%
UKIP 14% (+1)
GRN 5%

Still on a knife edge and there's only two weeks to go.

Quite likely. Though elections do bring up surprises, so all the seats that radio4extracrap mentioned are "ones to watch" if you're into election nerdery and like watching the results come in on election night, even if I don't share his optimism (though in my case, it would be more appropriate to say "pessimism").

I would add to the above: South Basildon and East Thurrock; Castle Point; Wyre Forest; Dagenham and Rainham. None of them are slated to go to UKIP according to received wisdom, but favourites don't always win, they're potentially close enough that an upset could occur on the day - and of course we're two weeks from polling day, and anything can happen in the next 14 days.

(Someone above mentioned Rotherham - it looks like it might be close but at present, it looks like it'll be a Labour hold.)

Hmm and the Conservatives still think the SNP attack is working? Still too close to judge, admittedly.

Just 'mid term election polling', oh wait.

Yep. Labours won it haven't they? They're just so far in front they'll cruise to victory. Rollseyes.

If it wasn't for events in Scotland Labour would be in majority territory on those numbers and certainly when you delve beyond the headlines into England only polling and find the swing is almost the reverse of 2010.

Ask yourself why the Tories are fighting a losers campaign?

I agree with you.

I thought UKIP would've liked their chances in Eastleigh, turning over 1,771 votes shouldn't be too hard.

I think Eastleigh is a good bet for the Tories to take.

I don't think you can apply a by-election margin to a general election contest.

It really could go either way. It is exciting.

The polls do tell us one thing, If Labour do team up with the SNP and are able to get that majority then its game over for the Tories.

I think what will happen is this. Labour and the Lib Dems will form the coalition with the SNP offering a confidence and supply which if happens really leaves the Tories well and truly in the cold. The party will implode from the outside out if that happens! you can see the crack appearing now.

"Confidence & Supply"

I see Labour and the SNP forming an 'unofficial" coalition.

Exactly.

Smaller parties do well in by-elections because supporters of the party(/ies) expected to do well don't turn out.

Whereas the reverse is true in the GE. Eastleigh is a straight fight between LD and Tory. UKIP will come nowhere.

UKIP's vote count won't increase from 2013, that's pretty much certain -- and that vote count is equivalent to a 21% vote share if the turnout is increased to GE levels. Electoral Calculus are predicting 16%.

For fun, imagine if we did have a pure PR system and that was the above result. We'd end up roughly with the below seats (extrapolating out NI and guesstimating smaller parties from 2010 result).

Con - 214
Labour - 221
LD - 45
UKIP - 91
GRN - 32
SNP - 26
PC - 6
DUP - 4
SF - 4
SDLP - 3
UU - 2
Alliance - 1
TUSC - 1
Christian - 1

What sort of government would we end up with?

Tory + UKIP + DUP + UU only equals 311.

PR is basically the equivalent of a 'one party state' since the resulting coalition would be perpetual and unchanging.

The idea that such a system could better represent people is a joke.

Because of course the many countries with PR are all that way.

Latest Panelbase poll (22 - 23 Apr):
LAB - 34% (-)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 17% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 4%

Wow good poll for UKIP.

I assume so.

The Conservatives will be looking to the next 5 years of a Labour government now, hence the constant suggestion that SNP are extremists.

So as to undermine that future government, and hopefully return the Conservatives to power within just a few years rather than 20 years.