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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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FusionFury
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by oathy:
“Latest Panelbase poll (22 - 23 Apr):
LAB - 34% (-)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 17% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 4%”

Conservative are going down !
pork.pie
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by FusionFury:
“Conservative are going down !”

I wouldn't get too excited... put your Ed Miliband underpants away... I'd like you to be right, but it's all over the place just now.
Living4Love
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Tassium:
“The Conservatives will be looking to the next 5 years of a Labour government now, hence the constant suggestion that SNP are extremists.

So as to undermine that future government, and hopefully return the Conservatives to power within just a few years rather than 20 years.”

If the Tories loose this election I can't see them getting back into power in 2020 again unless Labour completely **** everything up.

Look at what happened after Major, Cameron will be out on his ass - most back benchers never liked him anyway and he is the only Tory MP who is more popular than his party so where do they go? we will probably see them in fighting for years on end and possibly going through two leaders (if not more) before 2020 even arrives if they repeat the 1997 to 2001 years. Which looking at the panic they are in right now I'd say was likely..

The Tories have always been their own worst enemy.
MattN
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Living4Love:
“If the Tories loose this election I can't see them getting back into power in 2020 again unless Labour completely **** everything up.

Look at what happened after Major, Cameron will be out on his ass - most back benchers never liked him anyway and he is the only Tory MP who is more popular than his party so where do they go? we will probably see them in fighting for years on end and possibly going through two leaders (if not more) before 2020 even arrives if they repeat the 1997 to 2001 years.

The Tories have always been their own worst enemy.”

The current situation in has nothing in common with 1997
Living4Love
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by MattN:
“The current situation in has nothing in common with 1997”

All the same to me. Tories tearing them apart over Europe. Same old story.
MattN
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Living4Love:
“All the same to me. Tories tearing them apart over Europe. Same old story.”

But Labour aren't on course for a majority and the tories have the 3 most popular politicians in the country

And the tories aren't currently tearing themselves apart over Europe
Living4Love
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by MattN:
“But Labour aren't on course for a majority and the tories have the 3 most popular politicians in the country”

The Tories aren't on course for a majority either and should Labour team up with the SNP, which be in no doubt they will, that will put them over the seats needed to form a government. The reason the Tories are all on the scare tactic right now is because they know this. Unless a miracle happens and the Tories managed to get a majority they will be out as not even the Lib Dem's will be able to prop them up.
Originally Posted by MattN:
“And the tories aren't currently tearing themselves apart over Europe”

They really are! Why on earth do you think they fear UKIP so much?! lol
MattXfactor
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Living4Love:
“The Tories aren't on course for a majority either and should Labour team up with the SNP, which be in no doubt they will, that will put them over the seats needed to form a government. The reason the Tories are all on the scare tactic right now is because they know this. Unless a miracle happens and the Tories managed to get a majority they will be out as not even the Lib Dem's will be able to prop them up.

They really are! Why on earth do you think they fear UKIP so much?! lol”

Why wouldn't the Lib Dems & DUP prop up the CON's if it added up?
Ellie_Arbuckle
23-04-2015
Looking at Ashcoft's pollings Nick Clegg is on course to lose his seat to Labour.

If this happens will the Lib Dems even be in a position to form a coalition with either party? I can't see the Libby Demmers left behind being eager to jump back into bed with the Tory boys given Cleggy has lost his seat as a result of the coalition.
MattXfactor
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Ellie_Arbuckle:
“Looking at Ashcoft's pollings Nick Clegg is on course to lose his seat to Labour.

If this happens will the Lib Dems even be in a position to form a coalition with either party? I can't see the Libby Demmers left behind being eager to jump back into bed with the Tory boys given Cleggy has lost his seat as a result of the coalition.”

He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting and even then the Lib's were only 2% behind where as last year they were about 5% behind, so the gaps closing plus when push comes to shove with the name recognition etc. he'll get over the line.

Having said that even if he did lose his seat I actually think someone like Vince Cable could potentially work with the Tories by the way he's been talking (which is surprising).
wizzywick
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Ellie_Arbuckle:
“Looking at Ashcoft's pollings Nick Clegg is on course to lose his seat to Labour.

If this happens will the Lib Dems even be in a position to form a coalition with either party? I can't see the Libby Demmers left behind being eager to jump back into bed with the Tory boys given Cleggy has lost his seat as a result of the coalition.”

The Tories don't want to win. I've come to that conclusion because of their really unenthusiastic campaign. As soon as Nicola Sturgeon threw a spanner by saying they would vote to stop the Tories forming a Government, they've been screwed. I think they are planning to go into opposition, get Boris as leader, sit quietly for awhile and then become mischief makers by using the right wing to stir up public discontent for the Government. Their ratings will go up (some on DS may not like Boris but he is actually much more popular than we realise), they will take advantage of a situation where Labour are in a difficult position with the SNP and call for a confidence vote. I give the Government, (Lab/SNP) until July 2016.

That is what I believe the Tories tactics are now. They want to be the party who said "I told you so".

That wasn't always their plan. I think they originally genuinely believed they would win. I also think the LD's will back them in opposition because they are a unionist party and will not like to be seen to support a Nationalist party.
Ellie_Arbuckle
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting and even then the Lib's were only 2% behind where as last year they were about 5% behind, so the gaps closing plus when push comes to shove with the name recognition etc. he'll get over the line.

Having said that even if he did lose his seat I actually think someone like Vince Cable could potentially work with the Tories by the way he's been talking (which is surprising).”

Looking at the polling I'm not convinced he will win his seat. What you have to remember is that most Lib Dem supporters were old Labour supporters and a lot of them are returning 'home'. Nick Clegg is in a very Left leaning seat and a lot of those voters aren't happy he jumped into bed with a Right Wing party. People even said it themselves, most who voted Lib Dem in 2010 hoped for a Lib Dem/Labour pact not a Tory/Lib Dem one.

As for Cable. He said he was willing to work with either party. Which is just the same as Clegg said. So its nothing new, a lot of who the Lib Dems will work with will come of the back of how well they do. If they lose half of their 58 seats then I find it hard to imagine them wanting to put themselves into the same position that caused them to lose their seats in the first place.
Ellie_Arbuckle
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by wizzywick:
“The Tories don't want to win. I've come to that conclusion because of their really unenthusiastic campaign. As soon as Nicola Sturgeon threw a spanner by saying they would vote to stop the Tories forming a Government, they've been screwed. I think they are planning to go into opposition, get Boris as leader, sit quietly for awhile and then become mischief makers by using the right wing to stir up public discontent for the Government. Their ratings will go up (some on DS may not like Boris but he is actually much more popular than we realise), they will take advantage of a situation where Labour are in a difficult position with the SNP and call for a confidence vote. I give the Government, (Lab/SNP) until July 2016.

That is what I believe the Tories tactics are now. They want to be the party who said "I told you so".

That wasn't always their plan. I think they originally genuinely believed they would win. I also think the LD's will back them in opposition because they are a unionist party and will not like to be seen to support a Nationalist party.”

All this talk is just the same as what we had in 2010 with the Lib Dem's pulling the Tory government down with Cable even on quote saying he could. Yet look at what happened, it worked and I see no reason why a Labour/SNP/Green pact won't work either.
northantsgirl
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting and even then the Lib's were only 2% behind where as last year they were about 5% behind, so the gaps closing plus when push comes to shove with the name recognition etc. he'll get over the line.

Having said that even if he did lose his seat I actually think someone like Vince Cable could potentially work with the Tories by the way he's been talking (which is surprising).”

That may have actually been an advantage to the Lib Dems. If they had mentioned names the toxicity of brand Clegg to many could have made the Labour lead bigger.
Living4Love
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“Why wouldn't the Lib Dems & DUP prop up the CON's if it added up?”

Because the Lib Dems are on track to lose half their seats. The fate of a future of a Lib Dem/Tory coalition hangs on Nick Clegg winning his own seat but like Wizzywick said, the fact Sturgeon told Miliband they could move block the Tories getting in means that's the deal Labour will ultimately end up taking. So its Ed as PM.

I can't see this playing out any other way now.
PrestonAl
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Living4Love:
“Because the lib dems are on track to lose half their seats. The fate of a furture Tory coalition hangs on Nick Clegg getting in but like Wizzywick said, the fact Sturgeon told Miliband they could move block the Tories getting in means that's the deal Labour will ultimately end up taking. So its Ed as PM.

I can't see this playing out any other way now.”

Whoever is going to be in power, will probably need the LibDems in some shape or form.

The SNP will be king makers, but the Libs will stop them being the King Breakers.
wizzywick
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Ellie_Arbuckle:
“All this talk is just the same as what we had in 2010 with the Lib Dem's pulling the Tory government down with Cable even on quote saying he could. Yet look at what happened, it worked and I see no reason why a Labour/SNP/Green pact won't work either.”

You couldn't have several left wing parties working together where most want to spend more and borrow more and Labour don't. The LD's have said they will work with whoever is intent and maintaining the growth they can rightfully claim they produced in coalition. It could work, don't get me wrong. I would want it to. I hate elections. But part of me believes it won't work for very long.
mossy2103
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting”

If Clegg, as leader of his party and Deputy PM, the man who has had national coverage over the past 5 years, is reliant upon name prompting in order for respondents to say that they would be voting LibDem, then he is in trouble!
Living4Love
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by PrestonAl:
“Whoever is going to be in power, will probably need the LibDems in some shape or form.

The SNP will be king makers, but the Libs will stop them being the King Breakers.”

I do agree with that and I hope Labour do a coalition with the remaining Lib Dems and just use the SNP for confidence and supply. I can see that working out well actually. As someone just said, an awful lot of people wanted and hoped for a Lib Dem/Labour coalition in 2010.
PrestonAl
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Living4Love:
“I do agree with that and I hope Labour do a coalition with the remaining Lib Dems and just use the SNP for confidence and supply. I can see that working out well actually. As someone just said, an awful lot of people wanted and hoped for a Lib Dem/Labour coalition in 2010.”

I was one of those. To me Darling was a good chancellor and the markets would have been happy with him. I don't however want Balls near the purse strings, with Miliband agreeing to everything socialist in nature. It fills me with dread.
wizzywick
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Living4Love:
“I do agree with that and I hope Labour do a coalition with the remaining Lib Dems and just use the SNP for confidence and supply. I can see that working out well actually. As someone just said, an awful lot of people wanted and hoped for a Lib Dem/Labour coalition in 2010.”

Had Labour won a few more seats, then that is what would have happened - but without Brown. (Which was a definate no brainer). They did not like the idea of a rainbow coalition, even though it would have got Labour a majority. The LibDems want a stable Government, it is better for them to get some policies through. A rainbow coalition will largely prevent them from having proper Government representation.
vald
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by PrestonAl:
“Whoever is going to be in power, will probably need the LibDems in some shape or form.

The SNP will be king makers, but the Libs will stop them being the King Breakers.”

That would be far the best outcome now.
Living4Love
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by PrestonAl:
“I was one of those. To me Darling was a good chancellor and the markets would have been happy with him. I don't however want Balls near the purse strings, with Miliband agreeing to everything socialist in nature. It fills me with dread.”

I'm not keen on Balls either. Hopefully if the Lib Dems do coalition with Labour, Cable will be able to keep some sort of lid on him.
wizzywick
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by Living4Love:
“I'm not keen on Balls either. Hopefully if the Lib Dems do coalition with Labour, Cable will be able to keep some sort of lid on him.”

If Labour do a deal with SNP, I can't see LibDems going anywhere near them. However if Labour can now get to over 300 seats and LibDems around 27, then I can see a formal Lab/Lib coalition being created.

But it is still all what ifs.

I wonder how the SNP would act if Lab chose LibDems over them?
Living4Love
23-04-2015
Originally Posted by wizzywick:
“If Labour do a deal with SNP, I can't see LibDems going anywhere near them. However if Labour can now get to over 300 seats and LibDems around 27, then I can see a formal Lab/Lib coalition being created.

But it is still all what ifs.

I wonder how the SNP would act if Lab chose LibDems over them?”

Its hard to imagine the Lib Dems working with Nationalists but they managed to work ok with the Tories despite being very different parties.

If Labour choose the Lib Dem's over the SNP I can't see the SNP doing much about it. Most of the stuff in the SNP manifesto is a direct lift of the stuff in Labour's own. So if they start making noises about Labour the SNP aren't going to come out of it looking good.
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