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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 23-04-2015, 16:55
Annsyre
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He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting and even then the Lib's were only 2% behind where as last year they were about 5% behind, so the gaps closing plus when push comes to shove with the name recognition etc. he'll get over the line.

Having said that even if he did lose his seat I actually think someone like Vince Cable could potentially work with the Tories by the way he's been talking (which is surprising).
We must have seen the same interview - my jaw dropped - I have never seen him being so emollient.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:15
bokonon
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He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting and even then the Lib's were only 2% behind where as last year they were about 5% behind, so the gaps closing plus when push comes to shove with the name recognition etc. he'll get over the line.

Having said that even if he did lose his seat I actually think someone like Vince Cable could potentially work with the Tories by the way he's been talking (which is surprising).
I am not sure that name recognition is always such a good thing. Who is Nick Clegg? Oh yes the guy in this photo:

http://www.theguardian.com/education...out-nick-clegg
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:25
MattXfactor
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Because the Lib Dems are on track to lose half their seats. The fate of a future of a Lib Dem/Tory coalition hangs on Nick Clegg winning his own seat but like Wizzywick said, the fact Sturgeon told Miliband they could move block the Tories getting in means that's the deal Labour will ultimately end up taking. So its Ed as PM.

I can't see this playing out any other way now.
Its all about the numbers and I still think CON + LD + DUP will be large enough to secure a majority in the house of commons (with sinn fein abstaining).
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:28
MTUK1
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Its all about the numbers and I still think CON + LD + DUP will be large enough to secure a majority in the house of commons (with sinn fein abstaining).

Refreshing to see a different view. 90% of the posts today keep telling us Ed has won.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:29
MattXfactor
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If Labour do a deal with SNP, I can't see LibDems going anywhere near them. However if Labour can now get to over 300 seats and LibDems around 27, then I can see a formal Lab/Lib coalition being created.

But it is still all what ifs.

I wonder how the SNP would act if Lab chose LibDems over them?
I'd honestly be shocked if Labour can get to 300 seats with their anticipated scotland losses. if they lose say 35 in Scotland (which looks a reasonable estimate) they'd need to gain net 75 seats from somewhere else.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:29
Boyard
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According to the Evening Standard, yesterday's Yougov found only 8% of non Tory voters thought a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful:

"Discounting those who don't think there will be any kind of Labour/SNP deal, and those who do but think it would be a good thing or better than a Tory government, leaves just eight percent who think a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful"
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:31
Boyard
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Its all about the numbers and I still think CON + LD + DUP will be large enough to secure a majority in the house of commons (with sinn fein abstaining).
The DUP are keeping options open for a coalition with both Labour and Tories though. Personally I'd prefer neither of them
To work with them, given some of their views on gay people, abortions and such.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:32
MattXfactor
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Refreshing to see a different view. 90% of the posts today keep telling us Ed has won.
He's definitely not won by any stretch of the imagination yet, If the tories can gain roughly 10 seats from the LD's that puts them on around 315 , so they could probably lose 25-35 seats and still form the government with support from LD+DUP, in fact I still think this is just as likely as a LAB + SNP pact.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:33
MattXfactor
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The DUP are keeping options open for a coalition with both Labour and Tories though. Personally I'd prefer neither of them
To work with them, given some of their views on gay people, abortions and such.
I agree they are keeping options open but they seem more right wing to me which means in my mind if the Tories+LD's need 9 DUP seats to get over the line and form a government then the DUP would be more than willing to go with them rather than vote their queen speech down and allow a Lab + SNP pact (they've stated they don't want to work with parties whose goals are to break up the union).
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:38
MattN
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DUP wouldn't deal with the SNP
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:39
MattXfactor
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DUP wouldn't deal with the SNP
yup precisely, so effectively locks them out of supporting a lab minority government.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:40
Boyard
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Both parties would be propping up Labour. It wouldn't be a deal with one another.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:41
carnoch04
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DUP wouldn't deal with the SNP
Subtle difference between a deal and a lose arrangement though. The deal would be with the Labour party.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:45
wizzywick
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According to the Evening Standard, yesterday's Yougov found only 8% of non Tory voters thought a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful:

"Discounting those who don't think there will be any kind of Labour/SNP deal, and those who do but think it would be a good thing or better than a Tory government, leaves just eight percent who think a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful"
Put 8% in perspective though. If 8% non-Tory voters think it could be harmful and they're LD or Labour supporters, and considering around 4% of UKIP voters may swing back to Tory, this could be enough to give Tories a slight majority. Considering things are so tight, 8-10% could be the clincher. And 8% of non-Tory voters do not want a Lab/SNP alliance. It might not sound many, but could be the election clincher.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:50
Jol44
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We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.

He didn't stick around for long did he?!
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:51
MTUK1
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We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.

He didn't stick around for long did he?!
Yawn. We could well be seeing the back of Milliband too? Ever thought of that?
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:51
MattN
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According to the Evening Standard, yesterday's Yougov found only 8% of non Tory voters thought a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful:

"Discounting those who don't think there will be any kind of Labour/SNP deal, and those who do but think it would be a good thing or better than a Tory government, leaves just eight percent who think a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful"
If all 8% switched too the Tories you'd be looking at a majority, even if half switched it makes a major impact
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:52
tony321
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We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.

He didn't stick around for long did he?!
As another Tory PM once said 'Rejoice'
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:53
Fudd
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For such a close election I'm another who thinks it's all over - it will be a Labour minority government, maybe in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but held up via a confidence and supply agreement with the SNP. I can't see any other result unless something astounding happens to sink the Labour vote and radically increase the Tory support. Obviously if the reverse happens we'll have a Labour majority.
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:53
MattN
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We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.

He didn't stick around for long did he?!
In just over a week Mili could be packing his bags to go back to lecture at havard.

Didn't stick around long did he
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:54
FusionFury
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Subtle difference between a deal and a lose arrangement though. The deal would be with the Labour party.
An unofficial arrangement to kick the Conservatives and Cameron out. Depends how badly they want Cameron out..
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:55
wizzywick
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If all 8% switched too the Tories you'd be looking at a majority, even if half switched it makes a major impact
But, the $64,000 question is, what are the tories going to do to attract these 8% of voters to them?
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Old 23-04-2015, 17:56
FusionFury
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We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.

He didn't stick around for long did he?!
Peachy!
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Old 23-04-2015, 18:09
Living4Love
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For such a close election I'm another who thinks it's all over - it will be a Labour minority government, maybe in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but held up via a confidence and supply agreement with the SNP. I can't see any other result unless something astounding happens to sink the Labour vote and radically increase the Tory support. Obviously if the reverse happens we'll have a Labour majority.
Yep now we are so close you can tell this is going to be the result and its the main reason the Tories are all in such a panic.

I think the truth is that the Tories have never really got over their 18 years in government, some seem unable to forget and forgive. Cameron was very lucky in 2010 that Brown was Labour leader. Had it been anyone else Labour probably would won the whole thing. I think the problem with Miliband is that his popularity had stated to rise too late. For so long people saw him as a joke. Its only been these past weeks that people have started listening to him. The fact Cameron is running scared of Miliband at such a crucial stage of the election tells us all we need to know about the mood in Tory HQ.
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Old 23-04-2015, 18:14
MattN
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http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelecti...ampaign=buffer

Interesting article about the difference in online and phone polls
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