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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#601 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting and even then the Lib's were only 2% behind where as last year they were about 5% behind, so the gaps closing plus when push comes to shove with the name recognition etc. he'll get over the line.
Having said that even if he did lose his seat I actually think someone like Vince Cable could potentially work with the Tories by the way he's been talking (which is surprising). |
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#602 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,959
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Quote:
He'll win his seat I'm convinced. Ashcrofts polling didn't use name prompting and even then the Lib's were only 2% behind where as last year they were about 5% behind, so the gaps closing plus when push comes to shove with the name recognition etc. he'll get over the line.
Having said that even if he did lose his seat I actually think someone like Vince Cable could potentially work with the Tories by the way he's been talking (which is surprising). http://www.theguardian.com/education...out-nick-clegg |
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#603 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
Because the Lib Dems are on track to lose half their seats. The fate of a future of a Lib Dem/Tory coalition hangs on Nick Clegg winning his own seat but like Wizzywick said, the fact Sturgeon told Miliband they could move block the Tories getting in means that's the deal Labour will ultimately end up taking. So its Ed as PM.
I can't see this playing out any other way now. |
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#604 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Quote:
Its all about the numbers and I still think CON + LD + DUP will be large enough to secure a majority in the house of commons (with sinn fein abstaining).
Refreshing to see a different view. 90% of the posts today keep telling us Ed has won. |
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#605 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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If Labour do a deal with SNP, I can't see LibDems going anywhere near them. However if Labour can now get to over 300 seats and LibDems around 27, then I can see a formal Lab/Lib coalition being created.
But it is still all what ifs. I wonder how the SNP would act if Lab chose LibDems over them? |
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#606 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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According to the Evening Standard, yesterday's Yougov found only 8% of non Tory voters thought a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful:
"Discounting those who don't think there will be any kind of Labour/SNP deal, and those who do but think it would be a good thing or better than a Tory government, leaves just eight percent who think a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful" |
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#607 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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Quote:
Its all about the numbers and I still think CON + LD + DUP will be large enough to secure a majority in the house of commons (with sinn fein abstaining).
To work with them, given some of their views on gay people, abortions and such. |
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#608 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
Refreshing to see a different view. 90% of the posts today keep telling us Ed has won.
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#609 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
The DUP are keeping options open for a coalition with both Labour and Tories though. Personally I'd prefer neither of them
To work with them, given some of their views on gay people, abortions and such. |
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#610 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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DUP wouldn't deal with the SNP
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#611 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
DUP wouldn't deal with the SNP
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#612 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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Both parties would be propping up Labour. It wouldn't be a deal with one another.
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#613 |
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,011
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DUP wouldn't deal with the SNP
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#614 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
According to the Evening Standard, yesterday's Yougov found only 8% of non Tory voters thought a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful:
"Discounting those who don't think there will be any kind of Labour/SNP deal, and those who do but think it would be a good thing or better than a Tory government, leaves just eight percent who think a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful" |
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#615 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 20,783
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We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.
He didn't stick around for long did he?!
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#616 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Quote:
We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.
He didn't stick around for long did he?! ![]() |
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#617 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Quote:
According to the Evening Standard, yesterday's Yougov found only 8% of non Tory voters thought a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful:
"Discounting those who don't think there will be any kind of Labour/SNP deal, and those who do but think it would be a good thing or better than a Tory government, leaves just eight percent who think a Labour/SNP pact might be harmful" |
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#618 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 3,924
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Quote:
We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.
He didn't stick around for long did he?! ![]() |
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#619 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,043
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For such a close election I'm another who thinks it's all over - it will be a Labour minority government, maybe in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but held up via a confidence and supply agreement with the SNP. I can't see any other result unless something astounding happens to sink the Labour vote and radically increase the Tory support. Obviously if the reverse happens we'll have a Labour majority.
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#620 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Quote:
We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.
He didn't stick around for long did he?! ![]() Didn't stick around long did he |
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#621 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,914
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Subtle difference between a deal and a lose arrangement though. The deal would be with the Labour party.
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#622 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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If all 8% switched too the Tories you'd be looking at a majority, even if half switched it makes a major impact
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#623 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,914
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Quote:
We could well be seeing the back of Cameron from politics forever in just a week or so. Amazing.
He didn't stick around for long did he?! ![]() |
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#624 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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Quote:
For such a close election I'm another who thinks it's all over - it will be a Labour minority government, maybe in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, but held up via a confidence and supply agreement with the SNP. I can't see any other result unless something astounding happens to sink the Labour vote and radically increase the Tory support. Obviously if the reverse happens we'll have a Labour majority.
I think the truth is that the Tories have never really got over their 18 years in government, some seem unable to forget and forgive. Cameron was very lucky in 2010 that Brown was Labour leader. Had it been anyone else Labour probably would won the whole thing. I think the problem with Miliband is that his popularity had stated to rise too late. For so long people saw him as a joke. Its only been these past weeks that people have started listening to him. The fact Cameron is running scared of Miliband at such a crucial stage of the election tells us all we need to know about the mood in Tory HQ. |
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#625 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelecti...ampaign=buffer
Interesting article about the difference in online and phone polls |
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