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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 22-06-2016, 15:28
carnoch04
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Interesting.

There are more bets to leave, but the remain bets are of higher value.
Yes they are higher value but that's because, to win anything worthwhile at odds of 1/4, you have to bet big.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:30
colink24
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Interesting.

There are more bets to leave, but the remain bets are of higher value.
Of the £46m matched on Betfair, £36m has been matched on Remain, £10m on Leave.

Currently Remain is 1.31 (just under 1/3) and Leave 4.1 (just over 3/1). Cant see the markey cracking £50m but you never know.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:35
Tassium
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For people still unsure the best thing is to vote Remain.
No matter what happens voting Remain will give a person psychological safety.

>Leave Wins. The UK economy dips for a while, then picks up strongly. The Remain voter can happily admit they were wrong.

>Leave Wins. The UK economy tanks. The Remain voter can say "I told you so" and feel good about their decision.


>Remain Wins: The EU go nuclear and it's all bad. The Remain voter will have misery for company.

>Remain Wins: It works out great, the EU are not that bad. The UK economy thrives. "Yahoo for me!" thinks the Remain voter
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:38
JimothyD
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I'm convinced remain will win, legally or 'otherwise'. I think the big question is the margin of victory.

The issue won't go away though. The UK is fundamentally at odds with the concept of the EU.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:39
Chisato Geeste
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Will be interesting to see if the polls generally got it right this time.

I'm coming to the realisation that I am going to be unhappy whatever the result. I'm voting Remain reluctantly...it will just be business as usual for the EU with zero chance of reform.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:39
JimothyD
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For people still unsure the best thing is to vote Remain.
No matter what happens voting Remain will give a person psychological safety.

>Leave Wins. The UK economy dips for a while, then picks up strongly. The Remain voter can happily admit they were wrong.

>Leave Wins. The UK economy tanks. The Remain voter can say "I told you so" and feel good about their decision.


>Remain Wins: The EU go nuclear and it's all bad. The Remain voter will have misery for company.

>Remain Wins: It works out great, the EU are not that bad. The UK economy thrives. "Yahoo for me!" thinks the Remain voter
All possible (to vary degrees) apart from the BIB.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:40
JimothyD
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Will be interesting to see if the polls generally got it right this time.

I'm coming to the realisation that I am going to be unhappy whatever the result. I'm voting Remain reluctantly...it will just be business as usual for the EU with zero chance of reform.
Why in the hell are you voting remain then?!
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:40
ArtfulDodger_
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Why in the hell are you voting remain then?!
I thought the same.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:41
wizzywick
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Will be interesting to see if the polls generally got it right this time.

I'm coming to the realisation that I am going to be unhappy whatever the result. I'm voting Remain reluctantly...it will just be business as usual for the EU with zero chance of reform.
What is it about Leave that bothers you?

The fear of doing something different results in changes that can be great. It is natural to fear something, but far more natural to want to improve things. We can only improve things if we leave.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:46
wizzywick
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I'm convinced remain will win, legally or 'otherwise'. I think the big question is the margin of victory.

The issue won't go away though. The UK is fundamentally at odds with the concept of the EU.
Most Brits have always been of the view "Happy to be part of the EU, but not run by the EU". If that scenario were to continue, most Brits wouldn't care one way or another.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:55
Master Ozzy
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Maybe it's because I live in London, but I think things are absolute crap as they are with us in the EU, so for me voting leave and the chance of change is an easy decision. All this crap about us loosing holiday pay, maternity leave etc is just rubbish and scaremongering.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:57
marke09
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Jim Waterson ‏@jimwaterson 43m43 minutes ago

Done some rough maths on the EU voter reg drive: 6.5m people applied to register Dec>Jun but only 2m increase in names on electoral roll.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:58
smudges dad
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What is it about Leave that bothers you?
The removal of human rights legislation, looser environmental controls, abolishing hard won working conditions. All what people like Gove want to do.
Most Brits have always been of the view "Happy to be part of the EU, but not run by the EU". If that scenario were to continue, most Brits wouldn't care one way or another.
Which is what we have at the moment, despite the UKIP lies.
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Old 22-06-2016, 15:58
ArtfulDodger_
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Maybe it's because I live in London, but I think things are absolute crap as they are with us in the EU, so for me voting leave and the chance of change is an easy decision. All this crap about us loosing holiday pay, maternity leave etc is just rubbish and scaremongering.
Im not alone in London.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:00
Chirpy_Chicken
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I think next poll wiill have remain about 5% ahead
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:00
BanglaRoad
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What is it about Leave that bothers you?

The fear of doing something different results in changes that can be great. It is natural to fear something, but far more natural to want to improve things. We can only improve things if we leave.
Improve things with a falling currency, job uncertainty and business moving to other countries. How is that going to make your life any better?
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:04
BrokenArrow
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Improve things with a falling currency, job uncertainty and business moving to other countries. How is that going to make your life any better?
This has already happened, all whilst we were part of the EU.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:04
wizzywick
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Improve things with a falling currency, job uncertainty and business moving to other countries. How is that going to make your life any better?
What you describe is the flaw in both sides of the argument. Simply because Remainers always say that Brexiters can't predict what will happen, but exactly the same principal applies to Remainers. You simply do not know that what you describe will happen.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:06
aurichie
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I think next poll wiill have remain about 5% ahead
I'd be very happy with that.

Leave needs to be about 5 to 6 points ahead at least to have a chance based on historical trends. They are a million miles away from that.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:07
wizzywick
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I think next poll wiill have remain about 5% ahead
It's an odd thing isn't it? It really does seem that everyone I speak to, apart from a tiny handful, is voting Leave. These are from all walks of life. Yet polls suggest that Remain is the preference.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:07
Nodger
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What you describe is the flaw in both sides of the argument. Simply because Remainers always say that Brexiters can't predict what will happen, but exactly the same principal applies to Remainers. You simply do not know that what you describe will happen.
Quite.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:08
clinch
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The only polls that we know are definitely out today are Opinium (16:30) and ComRes (22:00).

Tomorrow we have Ipsos MORI (morning) and YouGov's on-the-day-but-not-exit-poll (22:00).

There may be more we haven't heard of yet.
Are polls allowed on polling day before ballot boxes close?
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:10
Lily Layfield
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In our shop its odd. Its gone from being very much Leave to being Don't Know to some now being Remain. So compared to a month ago things are pretty mixed and about even.

Its defo more older people over 60 who seem to want out. I live in a University City and I have to be honest. Of the young people, lets say about early 20s, they are very much strongly in favour of Remain.

So this really does seem like its a Vs between the generations to me.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:11
Sweezely!
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It's an odd thing isn't it? It really does seem that everyone I speak to, apart from a tiny handful, is voting Leave. These are from all walks of life. Yet polls suggest that Remain is the preference.
I think there's a lot of herding going on. For all we know, the pollsters are trying lots of different things out to see where the methodology is going wrong. We might some implausibly varied predictions by tomorrow just so they've got something to go on in their analysis.
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Old 22-06-2016, 16:11
RRL
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Are polls allowed on polling day before ballot boxes close?
There are no restriction on when polls can be published in the UK. The question was asked a couple of weeks ago and I posted a link to a site that stated this, it is in this thread (somewhere) I think

Some info here

http://www.inbrief.co.uk/media-law/p...xit-polls-law/
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