The lack of rain and warm weather in the north will hopefully get the Remain vote out there, then. The south east is already mostly remain anyway, particularly London.
Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
276 of 378
TNS has changed its methodology for its final poll.
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“TNS has changed its methodology for its final poll.
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor”
“TNS has changed its methodology for its final poll.
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor”
Hope so
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“TNS has changed its methodology for its final poll.
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor”
“TNS has changed its methodology for its final poll.
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor”
Interesting.
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“TNS has changed its methodology for its final poll.
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor”
“TNS has changed its methodology for its final poll.
On the old methodology it would have been.
Leave 49
Remain 42
The new approach with a 2 per cent leave lead is based on all voters - the 7 per cent leave lead is based on likely voters.
So on likely voters leave is 7 per cent ahead according to TNS.
https://mobile.twitter.com/britainel...Ctwgr%5Eauthor”
We need to vote this way to force Cameron to sod off. Sorry to all his fans on twitter on here but he's brought nothing to the mix as PM other than patronising the electorate and treating us like morons like we're born yesterday or something.
Yes, get Cameron to sod off, and get Boris, Gove, IDS and Farage in charge, Because that will be SO much better...
Originally Posted by James2001:
“The lack of rain and warm weather in the north will hopefully get the Remain vote out there, then. The south east is already mostly remain anyway, particularly London.”
“The lack of rain and warm weather in the north will hopefully get the Remain vote out there, then. The south east is already mostly remain anyway, particularly London.”
You are joking. London is firmly remain, the south east is not.
Originally Posted by James2001:
“The lack of rain and warm weather in the north will hopefully get the Remain vote out there, then. The south east is already mostly remain anyway, particularly London.”
“The lack of rain and warm weather in the north will hopefully get the Remain vote out there, then. The south east is already mostly remain anyway, particularly London.”
A number of labour heartlands are in the north. Probably also a number of disgruntled Labour voters so a good turnout might not necessarily be the best scenario for remain.
Originally Posted by ecco66:
“You are joking. London is firmly remain, the south east is not.”
“You are joking. London is firmly remain, the south east is not.”
Essex and Kent overall are likely to be solidly leave for a start - they are amongst UKIPs strongest areas.
Originally Posted by Tall Paul:
“We need to vote this way to force Cameron to sod off. Sorry to all his fans on twitter on here but he's brought nothing to the mix as PM other than patronising the electorate and treating us like morons like we're born yesterday or something.”
“We need to vote this way to force Cameron to sod off. Sorry to all his fans on twitter on here but he's brought nothing to the mix as PM other than patronising the electorate and treating us like morons like we're born yesterday or something.”
Even a Beleaver like me has no issue with Cameron staying if we vote out. He is the only prime minister who had the balls to go through with giving us a referendum. Labour reneged on their promise to give us one.
Osbourne should go though.
Originally Posted by James2001:
“Yes, get Cameron to sod off, and get Boris, Gove, IDS and Farage in charge, Because that will be SO much better...”
“Yes, get Cameron to sod off, and get Boris, Gove, IDS and Farage in charge, Because that will be SO much better...”
Farage has no chance of being in government. And before you snap back, I suppose the best thing to compare it with is the chances of Turkey being in the EU
As for the others, yes in the medium to long term this would be better. The likes of Boris and the other right wing loons are idiots compared to Cameron and Osborne. Dave and George have proved extremely dangerous as they take it further to the right while making out they're in the centre - and it works! They are extremely good at pulling the wool over all sorts of people, not just Tories. That is their best talent - magnificient liars. The Tories you talk of replacing them makes a Labour government (after ditching Corbyn) far more likely in 2020.
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“Essex and Kent overall are likely to be solidly leave for a start - they are amongst UKIPs strongest areas.”
“Essex and Kent overall are likely to be solidly leave for a start - they are amongst UKIPs strongest areas.”
East Sussex (with the exception of Brighton) and coastal West Sussex too but not because they are UKIP areas.
Originally Posted by ecco66:
“East/West Sussex too (with the exception of Brighton) but not because they are UKIP areas.”
“East/West Sussex too (with the exception of Brighton) but not because they are UKIP areas.”
Yes - older Tory voters instead
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“Yes - older Tory voters instead”
“Yes - older Tory voters instead”
Likely to be retired so will be able to go and vote when there is no rain
Originally Posted by Chirpy_Chicken:
“Likely to be retired so will be able to go and vote when there is no rain”
“Likely to be retired so will be able to go and vote when there is no rain”
They'll vote whether there is rain or not. Always do, I always have to queue to vote (not that I am elderly or retired
).
Just had a quick poll at the in laws. 6 leavers, 1 remainer. The remainer is the mother in law and she is still on the fence a bit.
Originally Posted by ecco66:
“You are joking. London is firmly remain, the south east is not.”
“You are joking. London is firmly remain, the south east is not.”
Quite agree! Just on the southwest border of London, literally don't know one person voting remain. Impossibly high house prices/rent the main reason, caused by massive population increase in last 10 years.
Originally Posted by colink24:
“Just had a quick poll at the in laws. 6 leavers, 1 remainer. The remainer is the mother in law and she is still on the fence a bit.”
“Just had a quick poll at the in laws. 6 leavers, 1 remainer. The remainer is the mother in law and she is still on the fence a bit.”
Call off the referendum... the result is in!
Originally Posted by Hilary22cat:
“Quite agree! Just on the southwest border of London, literally don't know one person voting remain. Impossibly high house prices/rent the main reason, caused by massive population increase in last 10 years.”
“Quite agree! Just on the southwest border of London, literally don't know one person voting remain. Impossibly high house prices/rent the main reason, caused by massive population increase in last 10 years.”
I'm on the coast and I only know of one person voting remain. It's the pressure on infrastructure.
Originally Posted by James2001:
“Yes, get Cameron to sod off, and get Boris, Gove, IDS and Farage in charge, Because that will be SO much better...”
“Yes, get Cameron to sod off, and get Boris, Gove, IDS and Farage in charge, Because that will be SO much better...”
We can all dream
Originally Posted by ecco66:
“They'll vote whether there is rain or not. Always do, I always have to queue to vote (not that I am elderly or retired).”
“They'll vote whether there is rain or not. Always do, I always have to queue to vote (not that I am elderly or retired
).”
The retired have all day to vote as they have more time available usually,
Younger people with kids or who work have more limited slots - before or after work or the school run.
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“The retired have all day to vote as they have more time available usually,
Younger people with kids or who work have more limited slots - before or after work or the school run.”
“The retired have all day to vote as they have more time available usually,
Younger people with kids or who work have more limited slots - before or after work or the school run.”
Yes but just like shopping and banking, the retired are always there just when the younger people need to use these. Time has no concept for the retired down here
I'll be voting in the evening and can almost guarantee I will have to queue.
Originally Posted by pork.pie:
“Call off the referendum... the result is in!”
“Call off the referendum... the result is in!”
I lol'd! Just a minor insight, as they are from NI and I dont see them often. And NI is apparently large % Remain
Some figures from the Opinium poll Figures given first are for Remain
18 - 34 53 - 33
35 - 44 44 - 43
45 - 54 43 - 46
55 -64 37 - 54
65+ 36 - 56
England 43 - 47
Scotland 52 - 35
Wales 49 - 43
Conservatives 46 - 47
Labour 63 - 29
Lib Dems 65 - 31
UKIP 3 - 94
SNP 51 - 38
PC 65 - 35
Greens 69 - 19
18 - 34 53 - 33
35 - 44 44 - 43
45 - 54 43 - 46
55 -64 37 - 54
65+ 36 - 56
England 43 - 47
Scotland 52 - 35
Wales 49 - 43
Conservatives 46 - 47
Labour 63 - 29
Lib Dems 65 - 31
UKIP 3 - 94
SNP 51 - 38
PC 65 - 35
Greens 69 - 19
276 of 378
