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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 22-06-2016, 18:52
James2001
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Makes that 70% Labour figure people were rubbishing earlier seem more credible.
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Old 22-06-2016, 18:54
NorthernNinny
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Likely to be retired so will be able to go and vote when there is no rain
Probably already done it by postal ballot.
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Old 22-06-2016, 18:55
MARTYM8
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I think leave are a bit like Iceland.

No one gives them a chance - and look what's just happened.
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Old 22-06-2016, 18:57
ecco66
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Probably already done it by postal ballot.
No, not here they don't.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:07
Annsyre
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Essex and Kent overall are likely to be solidly leave for a start - they are amongst UKIPs strongest areas.
And Lincolnshire.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:10
marke09
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https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY - the top 10 Remain areas according to SKY data

https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY - the top 10 Leave areas according to SKY Data
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:10
InTheLoop
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Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:12
ArtfulDodger_
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Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?
Odds are based on bets.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:13
aurichie
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Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?
Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:15
James2001
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Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.
To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:16
NorthernNinny
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Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.
Really? I never would have guessed.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:16
ArtfulDodger_
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To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!
The method was changed.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:18
Mac2015
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I've converted a remain family member to leave.

Quite happy with myself.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:19
MARTYM8
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To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!
Or more likely they thought - leave lead of 7 on our current methodology.? We can't go with that so let's come up with a new approach that has it much closer so we don't look too different from everyone else.

It's a bit much after weeks of polling to change methodology from likely to all voters for the last poll though.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:19
Resonance
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To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!
The method was changed.
Yes Leave still ahead by 7 points on their previous methodology I think?
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:19
Lily Layfield
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I wonder if we are going to have the exact same result as the indy ref but with Leave on 55% and Remain on 45% Many of the polls now mirror the final indy ref polls which had No in the lead. Like with that referedum, I'm thinking the olders are going to be the deciding vote.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:20
culttvfan
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I've converted a remain family member to leave.

Quite happy with myself.
Well done! Did you use the "we can make Thursday our Independence Day" line?
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:20
aurichie
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I've converted a remain family member to leave.

Quite happy with myself.
You won't be if leave wins, and nor will your family member. You'll never have seen anything like the carnage that would follow a victory for leave on Friday morning. It will be the most extraordinary demonstration of self-harm ever witnessed by a country.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:21
James2001
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Wasn't there Sky News saying one of the polls due out today had remain 10 points ahead? Presumably that's one of the ones due out at 10PM (ComRes I'd assume).
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:21
culttvfan
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Yes Leave still ahead by 7 points on their previous methodology I think?
So, comparing like with like, no change. Is that correct?
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:21
ArtfulDodger_
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You won't be if leave wins, and nor will your family member. You'll never have seen anything like the carnage that would follow a victory for leave on Friday morning. It will be the most extraordinary demonstration of self-harm ever witnessed by a country.
In fact, nothing will happen.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:22
aurichie
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Wasn't there Sky News saying one of the polls due out today had remain 10 points ahead? Presumably that's one of the ones due out at 10PM.
Yep I believe so.

There's another poll coming that supposedly shows a move from leave to remain too. Hopefully accurate that rumour but who knows with social media.

I'd like to go into tomorrow knowing the vast majority of pollsters are very confident that remain will win.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:22
Inspiration
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Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?
They've been "collapsing" for days. Not reading too much into it. It's just guess work.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:23
ArtfulDodger_
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Yep I believe so.

There's another poll coming that supposedly shows a move from leave to remain too. Hopefully accurate that rumour but who knows with social media.

I'd like to go into tomorrow knowing the vast majority of pollsters are very confident that remain will win.
The pollsters are all wrong.
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Old 22-06-2016, 19:24
wizzywick
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I've converted a remain family member to leave.

Quite happy with myself.
Are you sure they just didn't tell you they'd vote Leave just to shut you up?
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