Originally Posted by marke09:
“Labour 63 - 29”
“Labour 63 - 29”
Makes that 70% Labour figure people were rubbishing earlier seem more credible.
Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Originally Posted by Chirpy_Chicken:
“Likely to be retired so will be able to go and vote when there is no rain”
“Likely to be retired so will be able to go and vote when there is no rain”
Probably already done it by postal ballot.
Originally Posted by NorthernNinny:
“Probably already done it by postal ballot.”
“Probably already done it by postal ballot.”
No, not here they don't.
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“Essex and Kent overall are likely to be solidly leave for a start - they are amongst UKIPs strongest areas.”
“Essex and Kent overall are likely to be solidly leave for a start - they are amongst UKIPs strongest areas.”
And Lincolnshire.
https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY - the top 10 Remain areas according to SKY data
https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY - the top 10 Leave areas according to SKY Data
https://twitter.com/DMcCaffreySKY - the top 10 Leave areas according to SKY Data
Originally Posted by InTheLoop:
“Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?”
“Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?”
Odds are based on bets.
Originally Posted by InTheLoop:
“Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?”
“Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?”
Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.”
“Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.”
To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.”
“Hardly collapsing odds are they. They've moved in a bit but one rogue poll isn't necessarily worth worrying about. So far the trend has been a move to remain, we'll have to see if the final polls confirm that or if this TNS poll is the start of something more worrying. I'm certainly not panicking yet as a remain supporter.”
Really? I never would have guessed.
Originally Posted by James2001:
“To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!”
“To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!”
The method was changed.
Originally Posted by James2001:
“To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!”
“To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!”
Or more likely they thought - leave lead of 7 on our current methodology.? We can't go with that so let's come up with a new approach that has it much closer so we don't look too different from everyone else.
It's a bit much after weeks of polling to change methodology from likely to all voters for the last poll though.
Originally Posted by James2001:
“To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!”
“To be fair, this TNS poll has leave 5 points less ahead of Remain than their previous one did!”
Originally Posted by ArtfulDodger_:
“The method was changed.”
“The method was changed.”
Yes Leave still ahead by 7 points on their previous methodology I think?
I wonder if we are going to have the exact same result as the indy ref but with Leave on 55% and Remain on 45% Many of the polls now mirror the final indy ref polls which had No in the lead. Like with that referedum, I'm thinking the olders are going to be the deciding vote.
Originally Posted by Mac2015:
“I've converted a remain family member to leave.
Quite happy with myself.
”
“I've converted a remain family member to leave.
Quite happy with myself.
”
Well done! Did you use the "we can make Thursday our Independence Day" line?
Originally Posted by Mac2015:
“I've converted a remain family member to leave.
Quite happy with myself.”
“I've converted a remain family member to leave.
Quite happy with myself.
”
You won't be if leave wins, and nor will your family member. You'll never have seen anything like the carnage that would follow a victory for leave on Friday morning. It will be the most extraordinary demonstration of self-harm ever witnessed by a country.
Wasn't there Sky News saying one of the polls due out today had remain 10 points ahead? Presumably that's one of the ones due out at 10PM (ComRes I'd assume).
Originally Posted by Resonance:
“Yes Leave still ahead by 7 points on their previous methodology I think?”
“Yes Leave still ahead by 7 points on their previous methodology I think?”
So, comparing like with like, no change. Is that correct?
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“You won't be if leave wins, and nor will your family member. You'll never have seen anything like the carnage that would follow a victory for leave on Friday morning. It will be the most extraordinary demonstration of self-harm ever witnessed by a country.”
“You won't be if leave wins, and nor will your family member. You'll never have seen anything like the carnage that would follow a victory for leave on Friday morning. It will be the most extraordinary demonstration of self-harm ever witnessed by a country.”
In fact, nothing will happen.
Originally Posted by James2001:
“Wasn't there Sky News saying one of the polls due out today had remain 10 points ahead? Presumably that's one of the ones due out at 10PM.”
“Wasn't there Sky News saying one of the polls due out today had remain 10 points ahead? Presumably that's one of the ones due out at 10PM.”
Yep I believe so.
There's another poll coming that supposedly shows a move from leave to remain too. Hopefully accurate that rumour but who knows with social media.
I'd like to go into tomorrow knowing the vast majority of pollsters are very confident that remain will win.
Originally Posted by InTheLoop:
“Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?”
“Leave odds are collapsing? Can someone tell me why - the TNS poll?”
They've been "collapsing" for days. Not reading too much into it. It's just guess work.
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“Yep I believe so.
There's another poll coming that supposedly shows a move from leave to remain too. Hopefully accurate that rumour but who knows with social media.
I'd like to go into tomorrow knowing the vast majority of pollsters are very confident that remain will win.”
“Yep I believe so.
There's another poll coming that supposedly shows a move from leave to remain too. Hopefully accurate that rumour but who knows with social media.
I'd like to go into tomorrow knowing the vast majority of pollsters are very confident that remain will win.”
The pollsters are all wrong.
Originally Posted by Mac2015:
“I've converted a remain family member to leave.
Quite happy with myself.”
“I've converted a remain family member to leave.
Quite happy with myself.
”
Are you sure they just didn't tell you they'd vote Leave just to shut you up?
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