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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Inspiration
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“I'd like to go into tomorrow knowing the vast majority of pollsters are very confident that remain will win.”

Like they were confident the GE was going to be hung?

They've not got a clue. Yes there may be a gain of a few % for remain due to "status quo" uncertains ... but they can also be some "shy leavers" who are not admitting where they stand due to the last few weeks of hysteria.

It could go either way. I think the probability is remain.. but I'm open to the idea there may be a shock result too.
aurichie
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by ArtfulDodger_:
“The pollsters are all wrong.”

Yep but you'll only be able to cling to that fantasy for little more than another 24 hours when the results start to come in.

I really think remain will perform even better than the polls say. I think there are a lot of shy remain voters out there who won't admit they are backing remain.
MARTYM8
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by James2001:
“Wasn't there Sky News saying one of the polls due out today had remain 10 points ahead? Presumably that's one of the ones due out at 10PM (ComRes I'd assume).”


Maybe there is - but I doubt Sky news would break the embargo and give the figures as it can only be Comres or you gov and it won't be you gov.

So I think you might have misheard.
wizzywick
22-06-2016
So, who really thinks Brexit will win? I don't.
ArtfulDodger_
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“Yep but you'll only be able to cling to that fantasy for little more than another 24 hours when the results start to come in.

I really think remain will perform even better than the polls say. I think there are a lot of shy remain voters out there who won't admit they are backing remain.”

It's not a fantasy, that is why I have kept saying it will swing 20% either way.
Mac2015
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by culttvfan:
“Well done! Did you use the "we can make Thursday our Independence Day" line?”

No, I let them hear from a couple of my friends about how their industries/businesses were decimated by the EU.
ArtfulDodger_
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by wizzywick:
“So, who really thinks Brexit will win? I don't. ”

Neither do I, but I will vote leave nevertheless.

I believe the British people can do it, if they have faith.
The Exiled Dub
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by wizzywick:
“So, who really thinks Brexit will win? I don't. ”

Unfortunately, I do, by a whisker. But I really hope not.
Lily Layfield
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by wizzywick:
“So, who really thinks Brexit will win? I don't. ”

I think it really is on course to win by a bigger margin that the polls are suggesting too.
marke09
22-06-2016
who said status quo was not on the ballot paper - who said we should be inside to reform Europe well Mr Juncker has news for you

Juncker says today that there will be no more reform if Britain votes Remain:

“British voters have to know that there will be no kind of renegotiation. We have concluded a deal with the prime minister. He got the maximum he could receive and we gave the maximum we could give. So there will be no renegotiation, not on the agreement we found in February, nor as far as any kind of treaty negotiations are concerned.”

A vote to Remain is a vote for the status quo, and worse…
Inspiration
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“I really think remain will perform even better than the polls say. I think there are a lot of shy remain voters out there who won't admit they are backing remain.”

Why would someone be shy about admitting to wanting to stay in and not change anything? I'm baffled by that suggestion. Can you give me a reason?

I can understand why people are shy about admitting voting leave.. I wouldn't admit to it but I might vote for it. But why would someone be shy about admitting to staying in?
NorthernNinny
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“You won't be if leave wins, and nor will your family member. You'll never have seen anything like the carnage that would follow a victory for leave on Friday morning. It will be the most extraordinary demonstration of self-harm ever witnessed by a country.”

Carnage? Get a grip.
ecco66
22-06-2016
Uh oh, looking out to the English Channel the rain is on the way and it's getting very, very humid here. It really is going to be a rainy day tomorrow by the looks of things.
ArtfulDodger_
22-06-2016
Some streaking guy on Channel 4 quoting racism at a black leave voter.
aurichie
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by Inspiration:
“Why would someone be shy about admitting to wanting to stay in and not change anything? I'm baffled by that suggestion. Can you give me a reason?

I can understand why people are shy about admitting voting leave.. I wouldn't admit to it but I might vote for it. But why would someone be shy about admitting to staying in?”

Have you not read the stories about death threats and glassed windows if you dare put a sign up for remain? The same nasty undercurrent that dogged the Scottish referendum has dogged this one. The outcome will be the same, remain will win just as it did in Scotland. The thugs will lose.
marke09
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by NorthernNinny:
“Carnage? Get a grip.”

dont worry about him hes moving on Friday if we leave
The Exiled Dub
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by Inspiration:
“Why would someone be shy about admitting to wanting to stay in and not change anything? I'm baffled by that suggestion. Can you give me a reason?

I can understand why people are shy about admitting voting leave.. I wouldn't admit to it but I might vote for it. But why would someone be shy about admitting to staying in?”

Because some Brexiters are very vocal to the point of aggression about this referendum. I asked some colleagues today how they were going to vote, and 1 woman, tired of being called a traitor, almost whispered that she was voting Remain. When she heard that I was voting Remain too, she opened up to talk about it.
Hildaonpluto
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by ArtfulDodger_:
“Neither do I, but I will vote leave nevertheless.

I believe the British people can do it, if they have faith.”

So brexit is a leap of faith economically?
NorthernNinny
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“Yep but you'll only be able to cling to that fantasy for little more than another 24 hours when the results start to come in.

I really think remain will perform even better than the polls say. I think there are a lot of shy remain voters out there who won't admit they are backing remain.”

Shy leavers more like, when they weigh up whether it's worth being labelled a racist for their views to become public.
marke09
22-06-2016
Leaving the EU "makes alien attacks on London more likely" says European Movement. and aurichie and trevgo
ArtfulDodger_
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by Hildaonpluto:
“So brexit is a leap of faith economically?”

Of course it takes faith. No of the experts can be trusted.
wizzywick
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by Inspiration:
“Why would someone be shy about admitting to wanting to stay in and not change anything? I'm baffled by that suggestion. Can you give me a reason?

I can understand why people are shy about admitting voting leave.. I wouldn't admit to it but I might vote for it. But why would someone be shy about admitting to staying in?”

I've been thinking that too! In Newbury today the "Leave Campaign" were in Northbrook Street (the main high street) and a Remainer woman went over and popped some of their balloons with her hairpin. She proclaimed "You're a disgrace. You're irresponsible and you lie!" So I think Remainers are more upfront about who they support rather than Brexiters who might prefer to keep schtum.
Inspiration
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by aurichie:
“Have you not read the stories about death threats and glassed windows if you dare put a sign up for remain? The same nasty undercurrent that dogged the Scottish referendum has dogged this one. The outcome will be the same, remain will win just as it did in Scotland. The thugs will lose.”

Really? Can you show me some examples of these glassed windows and death threats for putting a sign up?

What difference would that make to answering "yes I'm remain" in a poll?
Lily Layfield
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by The Exiled Dub:
“Because some Brexiters are very vocal to the point of aggression about this referendum. I asked some colleagues today how they were going to vote, and 1 woman, tired of being called a traitor, almost whispered that she was voting Remain. When she heard that I was voting Remain too, she opened up to talk about it.”

I can remember in the Indy Ref lots of No voters were so tired of being shouted at for voting No that they just told people they were Yes to stop the discussion.

Be interesting if the same has happened here. I know one woman who was called a 'traitor' for having a Remain poster in her car.
NorthernNinny
22-06-2016
Originally Posted by marke09:
“dont worry about him hes moving on Friday if we leave”

Probably a sideways move to General Discussion.
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