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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 22-06-2016, 20:01
James2001
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But we still need to make sure all our friends and family go out and vote tomorrow (if they are backing remain of course, for the others I talk about voting in Friday's referendum)
Well I know my mum's going and voting remain. As she's 66 the demographics say she should be a Leave voter, but she most certainly isn't!
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:03
welshfoxy
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Imagine if it was a huge swing to Leave...there would be floods of tears on these pages.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:03
wizzywick
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What is this "10% lead for remain" as rumoured by Sky? I haven't heard anyone else say that.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:03
aurichie
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Well I know my mum's going and voting remain. As she's 66 the demographics say she should be a Leave voter, but she most certainly isn't!
My Mum is 61 and she's voting remain too. She works in health care and is very concerned for the future of the NHS outside of the EU. All her colleagues and friends are doing the same.

It's very clear to me people thinking this demographic is in the bag for leave are getting it totally wrong.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:03
welshfoxy
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Well I know my mum's going and voting remain. As she's 66 the demographics say she should be a Leave voter, but she most certainly isn't!
I don't think anyone's pretending all older people are Leavers. Just like all young people aren't Remainers.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:04
welshfoxy
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My Mum is 61 and she's voting remain too. She works in health care and is very concerned for the future of the NHS outside of the EU. All her colleagues and friends are doing the same.

It's very clear to me people thinking this demographic is in the bag for leave are getting it totally wrong.
The NHS isn't safe either way with your Tories in government.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:05
Resonance
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Maybe the biggest outlier, or maybe the one poll that gets it right- who knows?
Would be a bit of a strange one if it does show a remain 10 point lead. All the other recent polls have it basically neck and neck. We'll see I suppose on Friday morning who was correct.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:05
marke09
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What is this "10% lead for remain" as rumoured by Sky? I haven't heard anyone else say that.
neither have I and would they have had the result that early if poll is not due out until 10pm
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:06
MARTYM8
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If ComRes are going against the trend they're really risking being wrong and losing some of their credibility. If they're right though then all the other pollsters will be nicking their methodology!
Well their methodology may only work for EU referendums!. So it might be of no use ever again.

To be honest I have seen no sign of a rumoured 10 per cent remain lead on the political betting site which is usually on the ball. Not saying it might not be correct but twitter can be wrong. It would be brave considering Opinium and TNS have leave ahead slightly,

I would expect Comres and ITV would want to keep the result tight.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:06
LostFool
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Well I know my mum's going and voting remain. As she's 66 the demographics say she should be a Leave voter, but she most certainly isn't!
I was quite surprised to find out that my 85 year old mum voted Remain by postal vote so maybe the "grey" vote isn't as pro-Leave as polling suggests. Like the Scottish referendum there could be a significant quiet vote for the status quo from a group which always has a high turnout but can be hard to sample reliably.

About a week ago I was getting worried about Leave winning but I'm slowly becoming more confident that sanity will prevail.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:06
Bester
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All but the last ComRes poll have had Remain with a large lead.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:07
Lily Layfield
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The NHS isn't safe either way with your Tories in government.
Hear Hear!! Gove and Johnson have both expressed a desire for the NHS as it is now to end.

The truth is all the Tories are complete liars who will say anything to get the result they want. That's why I had to search the EU all on my own to make up my mind without their interference.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:07
marke09
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The Com Res poll was commissioned by Daily Mail
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:09
Hildaonpluto
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Well I know my mum's going and voting remain. As she's 66 the demographics say she should be a Leave voter, but she most certainly isn't!
My mum and uncle are just a tad older than that and are also both voting remain
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:09
welshfoxy
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The Com Res poll was commissioned by Daily Mail
Oh. Dear.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:10
aurichie
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The NHS isn't safe either way with your Tories in government.
She would agree with you on that point also, but she think it's future is safer with us being in the EU than outside with a Tory government. I'm happy to go along with her logic for the purposes of this referendum.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:10
Lily Layfield
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The Com Res poll was commissioned by Daily Mail
10% lead for Leave then...
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:10
MARTYM8
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The Com Res poll was commissioned by Daily Mail
So why are ITV news breaking it at 10pm. Surely the Mail would publish it first ?

Maybe there are two Comres polls?
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:11
marke09
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If there was a poll which gave either side 10% lead then the markets havent reacted to it - only the odds on leave have moved at all
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:11
welshfoxy
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects Jun 19

The Remain campaign represents...
The establishment: 41%
Ordinary people: 10%
Both equally: 21%
(via YouGov / 16 - 17 Jun)
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:11
wizzywick
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My mum and uncle are just a tad older than that and are also both voting remain
My dad is voting leave but his older sister is voting remain. Of course SOME older people are going to vote remain in exactly the same way as some youngsters will vote leave. Just by people declaring that they know someone older who is voting remain, doesn't suggest they all will.
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:11
marke09
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Tom Mludzinski ‏@tom_ComRes 44m44 minutes ago

Tom Mludzinski Retweeted Robert Peston

Final #EURef poll from us out tonight - tune into @NewsAtTen & get @DailyMailUK for full findings
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:12
James2001
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If there was a poll which gave either side 10% lead then the markets havent reacted to it - only the odds on leave have moved at all
With the odds what they are, could they realisticly really get much better for remain anyway?

And if there was a poll showing a substantial lead for Leave and the markets had got hold of it, I'm sure we'd have seen more of a reaction in their direction than we have. I doubt we'd be having 5/2 on Leave if there were rumours of a poll with Leave 10 points ahead!
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:12
MARTYM8
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My mum and uncle are just a tad older than that and are also both voting remain
One third of elderly voters at least are backing remain. Some young people are backing leave.

These anecdotes are nice but don't mean much
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Old 22-06-2016, 20:13
James2001
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10% lead for Leave then...
Plenty of polls commissioned for newspapers have shown results contrary to the paper's own leanings down the years.
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