BBC say Sunderland 62% Leave
Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Originally Posted by marke09:
“Britain Elects @britainelects
Suggestions that Sunderland is ranging from 54-60% for Leave.
11:17 PM - 23 Jun 2016”
“Britain Elects @britainelects
Suggestions that Sunderland is ranging from 54-60% for Leave.
11:17 PM - 23 Jun 2016”
if true then this refs in the balance
Originally Posted by Lily Layfield:
“If its 62% for Sunderland that surely suggests Leave have won the referendum”
“If its 62% for Sunderland that surely suggests Leave have won the referendum”
Not at all. Leave needed Sunderland to still be in the game, I daresay they were hoping for even higher from there. If Leave win it'll be a miracle, all the positives have always been on Remain's side.
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“Really? Whens the declaration?”
“Really? Whens the declaration?”
That's not the result, only some speculation....let's wait and see.
If that was the result, we're in for an exciting night
Originally Posted by Lily Layfield:
“If its 62% for Sunderland that surely suggests Leave have won the referendum”
“If its 62% for Sunderland that surely suggests Leave have won the referendum”
On the data ive seen the newcastle and sunderland results if accurate suggest brexit is in much better shape than all polls suggest
Originally Posted by Lily Layfield:
“If its 62% for Sunderland that surely suggests Leave have won the referendum”
“If its 62% for Sunderland that surely suggests Leave have won the referendum”
I don't think so, Sunderland is a very eurosceptic area; remain haven't even bothered to campaign here.
Edit: The Newcastle result is far more interesting.
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“That's not the result, only some speculation....let's wait and see.
If that was the result, we're in for an exciting night”
“That's not the result, only some speculation....let's wait and see.
If that was the result, we're in for an exciting night
”
If newcastlr and sunderland vote as bbc suggest then this is on a knife edge
BBC saying Newcastle marginal for remain and anything lower than 60% not good for them. Could be an interesting night.
Originally Posted by welshfoxy:
“Not at all. Leave needed Sunderland to still be in the game, I daresay they were hoping for even higher from there. If Leave win it'll be a miracle, all the positives have always been on Remain's side.”
“Not at all. Leave needed Sunderland to still be in the game, I daresay they were hoping for even higher from there. If Leave win it'll be a miracle, all the positives have always been on Remain's side.”
I'm not understanding this. I thought the higher % for Leave in Sunderland was better for them nationally? so if they are at 60% surely that's a sign they have won it?
Originally Posted by Generalissimo:
“I don't think so, Sunderland is a very eurosceptic area; remain haven't even bothered to campaign here.
Edit: The Newcastle result is far more interesting.”
“I don't think so, Sunderland is a very eurosceptic area; remain haven't even bothered to campaign here.
Edit: The Newcastle result is far more interesting.”
What i read suggested if sunderland had 53% for brexit the country would be 50/50 overall
Newcastle poll modelling is supposed to come out around 60% Remain 40% leave, so that will be an interesting one.
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“If newcastlr and sunderland vote as bbc suggest then this is on a knife edge”
“If newcastlr and sunderland vote as bbc suggest then this is on a knife edge”
Sunderland is in the Top 10% of the 'Leave' areas, so unless leave get over 60% it no surprise
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“Newcastle poll modelling is supposed to come out around 60% Remain 40% leave, so that will be an interesting one.”
“Newcastle poll modelling is supposed to come out around 60% Remain 40% leave, so that will be an interesting one.”
In other words, if it's lower than 60% (by a few points), it's very much game on.
Originally Posted by tiger2000:
“Sunderland is in the Top 10% of the 'Leave' areas, so unless leave get over 60% it no surprise”
“Sunderland is in the Top 10% of the 'Leave' areas, so unless leave get over 60% it no surprise”
Pollsters were suggesting leave would win by about 7 % though if the country was even not 20%
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“What i read suggested if sunderland had 53% for brexit the country would be 50/50 overall”
“What i read suggested if sunderland had 53% for brexit the country would be 50/50 overall”
Yeah I read that too, 60-40 is about what I'd expect just based on personal experience.
Originally Posted by marke09:
“Leave have gone down from 15 to just over 4 on BetFair and the pound has started to loose ground”
“Leave have gone down from 15 to just over 4 on BetFair and the pound has started to loose ground”
Im a remainer and i think leave have won or at least got v close
Originally Posted by Generalissimo:
“Yeah I read that too, 60-40 is about what I'd expect just based on personal experience.”
“Yeah I read that too, 60-40 is about what I'd expect just based on personal experience.”
Ah right i see thank you
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“In other words, if it's lower than 60% (by a few points), it's very much game on.”
“In other words, if it's lower than 60% (by a few points), it's very much game on.”
Yep, it could be an anomaly or a clue. Remain has worked really hard on cities like Newcastle, away from NW and parts of Midlands which are strong Leave.
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“Im a remainer and i think leave have won or at least got v close”
“Im a remainer and i think leave have won or at least got v close”
Haven't a clue what will happen but I think too much emphasis was put on those two opinion polls an hour ago : they don't really tell us anything concrete
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