The pounds beginning to struggle at brexit up from 6% to 20% chance on betfair exchange
Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Originally Posted by bluewomble88:
“Whichever way this goes, it'll be the most exciting election night of my lifetime.”
“Whichever way this goes, it'll be the most exciting election night of my lifetime.”
If the referendum is close of course (say 51%-49%), it could go on for many hours and into tomorrow
Originally Posted by marke09:
“Leave have gone down from 15 to just over 4 on BetFair and the pound has started to loose ground”
“Leave have gone down from 15 to just over 4 on BetFair and the pound has started to loose ground”
Some dropping to 7/2 - I think the Newcastle result might be tighter than predicted.
Any odds on Cameron's job tomorrow? 
Forget the Tories, everyone thought he had it in the bag if it's a Leave the press will hound him out.
Forget the Tories, everyone thought he had it in the bag if it's a Leave the press will hound him out.
Originally Posted by welshfoxy:
“Oooooooooooooooh extremely tight in Newcastle!!”
“Oooooooooooooooh extremely tight in Newcastle!!”
Yes good news for leave. Newcastle were expected to be a lot more for remain.
Remain 65,404 - 50.7%
Leave 63,598 - 49.3%
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“That newcastle result is a DISASTER for remain, remain would of hoped to be at least 10pts ahead”
“That newcastle result is a DISASTER for remain, remain would of hoped to be at least 10pts ahead”
Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?
Originally Posted by Hildaonpluto:
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
It was not, it was nearly 10% LESS than expected.
There is speak of Glasgow getting a high Leave, if this happens its all in the air.
Originally Posted by Hildaonpluto:
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
Guy oin CNN said that was a disaster fior Remain as they expected a remain win of 10 - 15%
Originally Posted by Master Ozzy:
“This is looking good for leave but I'm going to stay calm and not get my hopes up.”
“This is looking good for leave but I'm going to stay calm and not get my hopes up.”
Could still be an aberration.....you'd need to see few more solid results yet
Originally Posted by Hildaonpluto:
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
Definitely not, im genuinely worried now. All data and pollsters id heard from previously suggested remain should win newcastle comfortably and lose sunderlamd by only about 5-6 pts, so far these results worry me alot.
Originally Posted by marke09:
“Guy oin CNN said that was a disaster fior Remain as they expected a remain win of 10 - 15%”
“Guy oin CNN said that was a disaster fior Remain as they expected a remain win of 10 - 15%”
Thats in line with what john curtice said. Big money going onto brexit on exchanges too
Originally Posted by Hildaonpluto:
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
“Sky News said the Newcastle result was in line with expectations?”
Sky have been blatantly pro remain,making even the BBC look neutral.
What's this, both politicians and pollsters out of touch with the public?! Surely not. Got to say I didn't expect this start to the night with Newcastle.
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“Definitely not, im genuinely worried now. All data and pollsters id heard from previously suggested remain should win newcastle comfortably and lose sunderlamd by only about 5-6 pts, so far these results worry me alot.”
“Definitely not, im genuinely worried now. All data and pollsters id heard from previously suggested remain should win newcastle comfortably and lose sunderlamd by only about 5-6 pts, so far these results worry me alot.”
I had a hunch some of the early northern results would panic markets as we discussed. it has happened but I'm staying calm.
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