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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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welshfoxy
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by ArtfulDodger_:
“Would love for that to be true, but there are still many many results to come.”

You've been saying the polls weren't based in reality - you may have your finger on the pulse
Hildaonpluto
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by NorthernNinny:
“The Mail on Sunday and the Daily Mail have both backed different camps. Maybe Murdoch isn't entirely convinced either way?”

Possible -riding both horses maybe!
ArtfulDodger_
24-06-2016
Why are the BBC deleting tweets?
marke09
24-06-2016
From Political betting

h1If Sunderland is representative of Labour areas in England, then I’m calling this for Leave
Betty Swollax
24-06-2016
Was Sunderland the main result for the leave camp in order to have a fighting chance?
Bester
24-06-2016
Plenty of twists and turns to come yet I'll bet.
Eurostar
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Resonance:
“Not counting my chickens, but looking like there is a shy leave vote that the polls simply haven't picked up.”

Perhaps the high turnout represents an angry protest vote against the Establishment? That's something the pundits never anticipated
NorthernNinny
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“It's the stitched working class coming out vote.”

My sister in law who is a labour supporter shocked me by actually voting leave. She said she was thinking about it but I didn't think she would.

She's a solicitor and certainly doesn't fit the stereotypical disgruntled supporter that were have been hearing about.
marke09
24-06-2016
Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1

I'm sticking with central prediction of 54-55% remain
12:23 AM - 24 Jun 2016
MattXfactor
24-06-2016
Pound down 6% investors are genuinely very worried their internal polls to put it bluntly have Fkd it, panic selling like ive never seen before
MargMck
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“Perhaps the high turnout represents an angry protest vote against the Establishment? That's something the pundits never anticipated”

Because they are part of the establishment and London-based meritocracy.
Resonance
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Betty Swollax:
“Was Sunderland the main result for the leave camp in order to have a fighting chance?”

People were saying earlier that 53% for Brexit in Sunderland would mean a very close result nationwide. 61% is a very good result for Brexit.
MattXfactor
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by marke09:
“Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1

I'm sticking with central prediction of 54-55% remain
12:23 AM - 24 Jun 2016”

hm for me brexit will get at least 47% but i think theyl win
Hildaonpluto
24-06-2016
Take a look at @PeterKellner1's Tweet: https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/st...409785856?s=09

Peter Kellner says he's sticking by his remain prediction but I'm not sure why he's so confident after Sunderland!
culttvfan
24-06-2016
What were the polls forecasting for Sunderland. Was it a narrow win for Leave, say 52%?
Resonance
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Eurostar:
“Perhaps the high turnout represents an angry protest vote against the Establishment? That's something the pundits never anticipated”

Yes, didn't the pollsters think a high turnout was bad for the leave side?
Betty Swollax
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Resonance:
“
People were saying earlier that 53% for Brexit in Sunderland would mean a very close result nationwide. 61% is a very good result for Brexit.”

Good! Thanks.
MARTYM8
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Hildaonpluto:
“Take a look at @PeterKellner1's Tweet: https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/st...409785856?s=09

Peter Kellner says he's sticking by his remain prediction but I'm not sure why he's so confident after Sunderland!”

He stuck with his prediction last May too - and he was wrong.

Brave call
voteout
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by MattXfactor:
“Pound down 6% investors are genuinely very worried their internal polls to put it bluntly have Fkd it, panic selling like ive never seen before”

With any luck it'll mean a big increase in interest rates.
MattXfactor
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by culttvfan:
“What were the polls forecasting for Sunderland. Was it a narrow win for Leave, say 52%?”

I read many times that if leave won sunderland 4
53-47 it would indicate the country as a whole roughly level. It could be that sunderlands simply an outlier, or it could be brexit are winning.

Any idea on time of next result anyone
culttvfan
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Resonance:
“Yes, didn't the pollsters think a high turnout was bad for the leave side?”

A high turnout up to 70% good for Remain, a mega-high turnout above 70% better for Leave.
Hildaonpluto
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“He stuck with his prediction last May too - and he was wrong.

Brave call”

That's what I mean -can his reputation withstand egg on his face twice on such big polls!!
Resonance
24-06-2016
Brexit now as short as 2/1 in the betting.
NorthernNinny
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by culttvfan:
“What were the polls forecasting for Sunderland. Was it a narrow win for Leave, say 52%?”

I think they were predicting a considerably narrower win that what they got.
Neppy
24-06-2016
Originally Posted by Resonance:
“Brexit now as short as 2/1 in the betting.”

Good grief!
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