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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#8376 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: London
Posts: 3,863
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Quote:
So the only polls that were correct were the ones we ran here on DS
![]() Opinion Polls in general need changing from the top down as they clearly provide incorrect results (maybe even biased). |
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#8377 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 3,998
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52-48 is close on paper, but given that people are, on the whole, risk averse and inclined to stay with the status quo, I think this is a big rejection of the EU.
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#8378 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 3,998
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Quote:
Bizarre and a first
![]() Opinion Polls in general need changing from the top down as they clearly provide incorrect results (maybe even biased).
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#8379 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: London
Posts: 3,863
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Quote:
52-48 is close on paper, but given that people are, on the whole, risk averse and inclined to stay with the status quo, I think this is a big rejection of the EU.
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#8380 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 591
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Quote:
52-48 is close on paper, but given that people are, on the whole, risk averse and inclined to stay with the status quo, I think this is a big rejection of the EU.
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#8381 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Independent United Kingdom
Posts: 3,749
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Clearly people on these polls were fibbing.
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#8382 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,623
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Quote:
52-48 is close on paper, but given that people are, on the whole, risk averse and inclined to stay with the status quo, I think this is a big rejection of the EU.
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#8383 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Bizarre and a first
![]() Opinion Polls in general need changing from the top down as they clearly provide incorrect results (maybe even biased). |
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#8384 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,061
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Quote:
Higher margin of error this time around, but I'd be confident in a remain victory.
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#8385 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,121
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Quote:
Look whos changed his tune
Peter Kellner @PeterKellner1 16m16 minutes ago Looking much closer now; Remain victory no longer certain |
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#8386 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 19,908
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Which poll got it right this time? TNS or something?
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#8387 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 22
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Quote:
I think when the Sunderland result comes in it will be 'game back on'
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#8388 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
Kellner's powers of prediction now rival aurichie's for their certain inaccuracy!
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#8389 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 1,208
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Don't know how polling companies can take the money and keep a straight face.
How many times can they get it so wrong? |
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#8390 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 811
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Might as well have got Martin Kelner to carry out the polling. At least the press release would have been rammed with funny gags.
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#8391 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,045
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Quote:
Given the expectation remain will add 5 points to the final opinion polls remain will get very close to the 60-40 result I've predicted from the start.
This is why Farage has already thrown in the towel. They need to be 5-6 points up now down to have a chance. Laughing my head off right now. |
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#8392 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,237
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Surely these poll companies are now totally redundant, and will not be trusted anymore?
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#8393 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,045
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Quote:
Surely these poll companies are now totally redundant, and will not be trusted anymore?
Computer modelling was new then, so when the computer correctly forecast the great storm human intervention downplayed what the computer model was saying as in- It can't be right. That would be the storm of the century. I think the same thing happened here. People were telling the pollsters, but they thought they knew better, and tried factoring things in like 'When it comes to it, people will lose their nerve', only people didn't lose their nerve. The polls that didn't try to be cute, and just gave figures, were quite often the ones that had Leave ahead (or very close) It was the so called more sophisticated polls that got it wrong (because they tried to 'interpret' findings (and thought 'When push comes to shove, people will bottle it) |
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#8394 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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Quote:
After all the discussion about polls, the Leave.eu one- "52/48 Leave"- that Nigel Farage apparently didn't trust at the start of the night- proved to be the most accurate, with the final percentages being 51.9/48.1
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#8395 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: A bunker
Posts: 5,964
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Quote:
I think it's a bit like the infamous Michael Fish weather forecast of 1987.
Computer modelling was new then, so when the computer correctly forecast the great storm human intervention downplayed what the computer model was saying as in- It can't be right. That would be the storm of the century. I think the same thing happened here. People were telling the pollsters, but they thought they knew better, and tried factoring things in like 'When it comes to it, people will lose their nerve', only people didn't lose their nerve. The polls that didn't try to be cute, and just gave figures, were quite often the ones that had Leave ahead (or very close) It was the so called more sophisticated polls that got it wrong (because they tried to 'interpret' findings (and thought 'When push comes to shove, people will bottle it) |
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#8396 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,237
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Quote:
I think it's a bit like the infamous Michael Fish weather forecast of 1987.
Computer modelling was new then, so when the computer correctly forecast the great storm human intervention downplayed what the computer model was saying as in- It can't be right. That would be the storm of the century. I think the same thing happened here. People were telling the pollsters, but they thought they knew better, and tried factoring things in like 'When it comes to it, people will lose their nerve', only people didn't lose their nerve. The polls that didn't try to be cute, and just gave figures, were quite often the ones that had Leave ahead (or very close) It was the so called more sophisticated polls that got it wrong (because they tried to 'interpret' findings (and thought 'When push comes to shove, people will bottle it) People can and do often lie to polling companies, so what is the point in them?? I don't know why anyone should pay these companies any heed in the future, as they are practically just making up numbers. |
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#8397 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 6,373
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TNS and Opinium both had Leave winning in their final polls - TNS by 2.4 points and Opinium by 1.3 points. ICM had Leave winning by 5 points, but that was a week ago so maybe factor in a slight swing to Remain since then as witnessed in the other polls and perhaps they'd have had it too if they ran a poll.
Some pollsters weighted their final polls based on an expected late swing to the status quo, but it didn't really materialise. TNS reckon it's because the status quo was so unusually unpopular. Needless to say I think online polling has been vindicated and we'll be seeing a lot less phone polling from now on... |
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#8398 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 69,237
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Quote:
TNS and Opinium both had Leave winning in their final polls - TNS by 2.4 points and Opinium by 1.3 points. ICM had Leave winning by 5 points, but that was a week ago so maybe factor in a slight swing to Remain since then as witnessed in the other polls and perhaps they'd have had it too if they ran a poll.
Some pollsters weighted their final polls based on an expected late swing to the status quo, but it didn't really materialise. TNS reckon it's because the status quo was so unusually unpopular. Needless to say I think online polling has been vindicated and we'll be seeing a lot less phone polling from now on... Especially for the status quo?? It has been proven to be completely the wrong thing to do |
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#8399 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,412
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In fact haven't the pollsters done very well?
If they had been predicting 60% for Remain and the final result was 64% Remain everyone would be saying well done. It's only because the referendum was on a knife-edge that such a small percentage variation was seen as being "very wrong". |
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#8400 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 6,373
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On the next Conservative Party leader calling an early General Election:
Support: 50% Oppose: 22% (via TNS) |
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