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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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platelet
27-09-2016
Within the Labour party...
Smith was favoured by the pre-2015 joiners with +26% and strangely by the 18-24 year olds as well +10

Jerry is strongest with the 25-39 year olds at +27, leave voters at +52, and the joined since Jerry became leader at +68

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/24...all-except-yo/

Outside the Labour party...

The positive attribute most associated with Corbyn was likeability, but even in this measure Theresa May beats him 36% to 34%. On leadership issues like strength and decisiveness, May leads Corbyn by margins of more than 30 points. Outside the party I don't think he's appealing to any demo at all
Resonance
27-09-2016
Originally Posted by platelet:
“Within the Labour party...
Smith was favoured by the pre-2015 joiners with +26% and strangely by the 18-24 year olds as well +10

Jerry is strongest with the 25-39 year olds at +27, leave voters at +52, and the joined since Jerry became leader at +68

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/24...all-except-yo/

Outside the Labour party...

The positive attribute most associated with Corbyn was likeability, but even in this measure Theresa May beats him 36% to 34%. On leadership issues like strength and decisiveness, May leads Corbyn by margins of more than 30 points. Outside the party I don't think he's appealing to any demo at all”

Not surprising about leave voters, given Smith was basically saying he wanted to overturn the referendum.
smudges dad
28-09-2016
Scotland shows a very different pattern to the rest of the UK, but the ratio of Tory to Labour looks consistent. Remove the SNP from the equation and it would look similar to other UK polls within the margin of error.

Apologies for not having a link to the data tables.

Quote:
“Scottish Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 50%
CON: 21%
LAB: 16%
LDEM: 5%
GRN: 4%
UKIP: 4%
(via Panelbase)”

bass55
28-09-2016
Originally Posted by clinch:
“The surge in new membership is, to a great extent, amongst young people.”

Who, on the whole, don't vote.
mossy2103
30-09-2016
YouGov/Times Latest Westminster voting intention (28-29 Sept)


Con 39% (+0)
Lab 30% (+0)
LD 8% (+0)
UKIP 13% (+0)
Oth 9% (-1)

Taken after Corbyn's speech, the figures show no conference bounce for Labour.
Annsyre
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“YouGov/Times Latest Westminster voting intention (28-29 Sept)


Con 39% (+0)
Lab 30% (+0)
LD 8% (+0)
UKIP 13% (+0)
Oth 9% (-1)

Taken after Corbyn's speech, the figures show no conference bounce for Labour.”

Next week's will be after the last conference will after the final conference. Then at last Parliament will sit.
Resonance
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Next week's will be after the last conference will after the final conference. Then at last Parliament will sit.”

It's unbelievable how much they don't sit. I'm not complaining though. The more the sit the more daft laws they have to invent to justify it. I'd have them sitting two months a year if it was up to me.
smudges dad
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Next week's will be after the last conference will after the final conference. Then at last Parliament will sit.”

The 3rd biggest party conference isn't until 13th-15th Oct.
Caxton
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“YouGov/Times Latest Westminster voting intention (28-29 Sept)


Con 39% (+0)
Lab 30% (+0)
LD 8% (+0)
UKIP 13% (+0)
Oth 9% (-1)

Taken after Corbyn's speech, the figures show no conference bounce for Labour.
”

But they were all cheering him at the conference with tears of joy in their eyes, thinking of his massive mandate. Oh hang on, they were all Labour voters anyway.
MartinP
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“The 3rd biggest party conference isn't until 13th-15th Oct.”

UKIP had theirs didn't they?
Annsyre
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“UKIP had theirs didn't they? ”

Yes they have.
Annsyre
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by Caxton:
“But they were all cheering him at the conference with tears of joy in their eyes, thinking of his massive mandate. Oh hang on, they were all Labour voters anyway.”

wrong post
Annsyre
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“The 3rd biggest party conference isn't until 13th-15th Oct.”

Parliament sits 10 October.

Recess Conference 15 September 2016 10 October 2016 Sits
Recess November 8 November 2016 14 November 2016 Sits
Recess Christmas 20 December 2016 9 January 2017 Sits
Recess February 9 February 2017 20 February 2017 Sits
smudges dad
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“UKIP had theirs didn't they? ”

Yes, but I'm talking about number of seats (and second in membership).
smudges dad
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Parliament sits 10 October.

Recess Conference 15 September 2016 10 October 2016 Sits
Recess November 8 November 2016 14 November 2016 Sits
Recess Christmas 20 December 2016 9 January 2017 Sits
Recess February 9 February 2017 20 February 2017 Sits”

Yes, and there's a major party conference from 13-15th October, while parliament is sitting.
mossy2103
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“The 3rd biggest party conference isn't until 13th-15th Oct.”

Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Yes, and there's a major party conference from 13-15th October, while parliament is sitting.”

The SNP conference.
MartinP
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Yes, but I'm talking about number of seats (and second in membership).”

Oh the noisy neighbours!

They should have scheduled it to when parliament is in recess.
Annsyre
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“The SNP conference.”

Oh that one.
smudges dad
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“Oh the noisy neighbours!

They should have scheduled it to when parliament is in recess.”

Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Oh that one.”

Maybe dismissive attitudes are part of the reason there is an independence movement?
MartinP
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Maybe dismissive attitudes are part of the reason there is an independence movement?”

I get on well with people I know who are SNP supporters. Whilst you are not one (so you say) they do have a sense of humour and they recognise a bit of banter on their side and mine.
smudges dad
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“I get on well with people I know who are SNP supporters. Whilst you are not one (so you say) they do have a sense of humour and they recognise a bit of banter on their side and mine.”

So banter can only be one way, can it? You can give it but not take it.
MartinP
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“So banter can only be one way, can it? You can give it but not take it.”

Check the post again - it's 2 way. The sign of a healthy personality

"they recognise a bit of banter on their side and mine"
Annsyre
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Maybe dismissive attitudes are part of the reason there is an independence movement?”

Not in my case I am half-Scottish.
Radlestort
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“YouGov/Times Latest Westminster voting intention (28-29 Sept)


Con 39% (+0)
Lab 30% (+0)
LD 8% (+0)
UKIP 13% (+0)
Oth 9% (-1)

Taken after Corbyn's speech, the figures show no conference bounce for Labour.”

I think Labour will be a bit relieved with that. After a spell, they are effectively back to the situation on Election Day 2015. You'll recal, they gradually built up in th polls to a point where they were starting to show parity, until the Chicken Coup sent them back down into the depths again.

As for the timing, how many people do you think really pay much attention to opposition party conferences, at this stage in an electoral cycle?
Annsyre
30-09-2016
Originally Posted by Radlestort:
“I think Labour will be a bit relieved with that. After a spell, they are effectively back to the situation on Election Day 2015. You'll recal, they gradually built up in th polls to a point where they were starting to show parity, until the Chicken Coup sent them back down into the depths again.

As for the timing, how many people do you think really pay much attention to opposition party conferences, at this stage in an electoral cycle?”

All of the media, all of the other parties, all of the pollsters and many ordinary voters.
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