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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#9076 |
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Norwich
Posts: 7,793
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Quote:
Outlier! Outlier!
![]() ![]() Statistical blip! That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks |
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#9077 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks |
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#9078 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hertfordshire
Posts: 1,127
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Quote:
Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks
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#9079 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Norwich
Posts: 7,793
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Quote:
so in Corbyn's eyes, a war criminal has more chance of winning a general election than himself!
Did I miss the trial and the verdict? |
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#9080 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 8,589
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Quote:
The referendum does not confer the authority to act on the PM. There are only two sources for that. The will of parliament, or the royal Prerogative. May fears she can not control the former, to she is gambling on a dubious extension of the Prerogative into areas concerning the rights of British citizens and where parliament has already legislated.
This is not only a very bad precedent, but bad tactics. If she gets told by the courts that the Prerogative does not authorise her to trigger Article 50, she will have to seek the consent of a very bellicose and unsympathetic parliament. She should simply have ordered her MPs to support a trigger vote or resign the whip. They endorsed the manifesto, after all. They should stand by it. |
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#9081 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 4,486
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Quote:
Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks When do you think the Corbynite members will "get" they're only a tiny minority of the electorate, and while they deeply love Corbyn, the electorate doesn't. Never is my guess.
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#9082 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Wow. 18 points?
When do you think the Corbynite members will "get" they're only a tiny minority of the electorate, and while they deeply love Corbyn, the electorate doesn't. Never is my guess. ![]() |
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#9083 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
IPSOS MORI
Con 47 (+7) Lab 29 (-5) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 6 (-3)
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#9084 |
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 24,737
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#9085 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Pimlico, central London, UK
Posts: 14,889
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Clearly Labour is not left wing enough to win power!
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#9086 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 8,611
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Quote:
Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks Quote:
No, they will always blame the mainstream media, the rebels .....
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#9087 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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Quote:
Wow. 18 points?
When do you think the Corbynite members will "get" they're only a tiny minority of the electorate, and while they deeply love Corbyn, the electorate doesn't. Never is my guess. ![]() It has to be that because we must credit some of them with the intelligence to know this is a TERRIBLE position to be in against a Tory government having to get to grips with Brexit (and police its own Remainer rump) at a time of troubled economies across the world. |
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#9088 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 8,611
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Quote:
I think that would be 136 seat majority
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#9089 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
That link shows CON taking seats from LAB in places like Darlington, Newcastle, Leeds, Hull, York, Huddersfield, Birmingham etc. That's how bad this is. Never, ever would I have imagined these areas to be Tory.
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#9090 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 8,611
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Quote:
These areas voted "Leave" and the Tories are the only ones listening to them.
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#9091 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 53,398
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Pretty clear what's happening. UKIP is collapsing now we're leaving the EU and those UKIP voters are running home to mummy.
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#9092 |
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Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 1,153
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Quote:
Pretty clear what's happening. UKIP is collapsing now we're leaving the EU and those UKIP voters are running home to mummy.
BTW I have voted for UKIP in the last 2 elections. however prior to that I was a lifelong Labour voter. Next election I may possibly vote Tory but it would take a major policy and attitude change for me to go back to Labour. |
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#9093 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 17,652
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The lesson the London-centric Labour 'stronghold' won't learn - just like over Brexit - is that it doesn't matter how many votes they pile up for the likes of Corbyn, Thornberry, Abbott and McDonnell, the rest of the country now consistently says "You must be joking!", including normally left-leaning voters.
Their self-importance is currently seeing them through in this fantasy, but it's a sorry disaster for Labour that so many people like me 'in the sticks' won't vote for them. |
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#9094 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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#9095 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 24,065
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Quote:
IPSOS MORI
Con 47 (+7) Lab 29 (-5) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 6 (-3) Quote:
No, it's an outlier.
I think this qualifies for another Jol favourite -- Ho! Ho! Ho!![]() Oh where are you Jol you are sorely missed ? |
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#9096 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 970
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Quote:
Well, at least the rebels can no longer be blamed. The whole 'It's all because of the rebels, the coup, and the leadership contest' has been proven to be a load of old bull. Labour is now going even lower in the polls, now the leadership contest is over. Where is this new leader bounce that we were promised? The restored confidence once the rebels had stopped plotting? I don't see it. All I see is a Tory government for at least the next ten years.
It looks like the damage has been done. As I remarked somewhere upthread, Labour is back to the position it was when Corbyn took over. It took a while for the party to work its way back to parity (or near partiy, to be honest) in the polls. It will take a similar period of cohesion and unity before the voters look at Labour as anything other than a festering pit of vipers. |
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#9097 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
Posts: 28,064
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This chart hasn't yet been updated for the very latest poll, but it is interesting seeing the UKIP vote going down at the same time as the Conservatives going up. Labour just keep going down
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...short_axis.png |
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#9098 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
This chart hasn't yet been updated for the very latest poll, but it is interesting seeing the UKIP vote going down at the same time as the Conservatives going up. Labour just keep going down
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...short_axis.png ![]()
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#9099 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
Posts: 27,073
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Quote:
IPSOS MORI
Con 47 (+7) Lab 29 (-5) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 6 (-3) |
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#9100 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: South
Posts: 10,863
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Quote:
IPSOS MORI
Con 47 (+7) Lab 29 (-5) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 6 (-3) My worry is that we end up in the same situation as the States. The right of the Tory party sees Brexit as an opportunity to push it's own agenda on government and eventually replace May with someone more hardline. The Blairites finally defeat Corbyn and purge the Momentum lot but in doing so they alienate themselves from large sections of their supporters - and end up as a shell-party kept going by corporate money and media backing (a la Clinton). As each day goes on I see more and more evidence that we need to move to a PR system. Let the Corbynites and UKIPPERs stand on their own principles whilst the 'serious' parties of the centre battle fro swing voters. |
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