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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 19-10-2016, 15:30
mungobrush
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Outlier! Outlier!

Statistical blip!
Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks
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Old 19-10-2016, 15:42
mossy2103
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Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks
And those pesky rebels have quietened down, a number having rejoined the Shadow Front Bench, and calls for unity being the order of the day.
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Old 19-10-2016, 15:42
Jamie6767
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Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks
It's the new kind of politics
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Old 19-10-2016, 16:10
mungobrush
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so in Corbyn's eyes, a war criminal has more chance of winning a general election than himself!
Tony Blair a war criminal?
Did I miss the trial and the verdict?
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Old 19-10-2016, 16:14
vanzandtfan
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The referendum does not confer the authority to act on the PM. There are only two sources for that. The will of parliament, or the royal Prerogative. May fears she can not control the former, to she is gambling on a dubious extension of the Prerogative into areas concerning the rights of British citizens and where parliament has already legislated.

This is not only a very bad precedent, but bad tactics. If she gets told by the courts that the Prerogative does not authorise her to trigger Article 50, she will have to seek the consent of a very bellicose and unsympathetic parliament. She should simply have ordered her MPs to support a trigger vote or resign the whip. They endorsed the manifesto, after all. They should stand by it.
There is nothing dubious about the use of rp in this instance; signing or withdrawing from treaties is a standard use of the power, it's how we joined the Eu in the first place
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Old 19-10-2016, 16:21
D_Mcd4
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Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks
Wow. 18 points?

When do you think the Corbynite members will "get" they're only a tiny minority of the electorate, and while they deeply love Corbyn, the electorate doesn't.

Never is my guess.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:05
mossy2103
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Wow. 18 points?

When do you think the Corbynite members will "get" they're only a tiny minority of the electorate, and while they deeply love Corbyn, the electorate doesn't.

Never is my guess.
No, they will always blame the mainstream media, the rebels .....
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:05
Annsyre
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IPSOS MORI

Con 47 (+7)
Lab 29 (-5)
LD 7 (+1)
UKIP 6 (-3)
Very encouraging.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:08
paulschapman
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Very encouraging.
I think that would be 136 seat majority
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:13
Ads
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Clearly Labour is not left wing enough to win power!
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:17
EuroFoxi
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Conservatives now 18 points ahead?
That will be the 3rd outlier in 2 weeks
No, they will always blame the mainstream media, the rebels .....
Well, at least the rebels can no longer be blamed. The whole 'It's all because of the rebels, the coup, and the leadership contest' has been proven to be a load of old bull. Labour is now going even lower in the polls, now the leadership contest is over. Where is this new leader bounce that we were promised? The restored confidence once the rebels had stopped plotting? I don't see it. All I see is a Tory government for at least the next ten years.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:19
MargMck
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Wow. 18 points?

When do you think the Corbynite members will "get" they're only a tiny minority of the electorate, and while they deeply love Corbyn, the electorate doesn't.

Never is my guess.
I think you are right. The Corbynites are more interested in their internal war of attrition and taking over the Labour party than anything else.
It has to be that because we must credit some of them with the intelligence to know this is a TERRIBLE position to be in against a Tory government having to get to grips with Brexit (and police its own Remainer rump) at a time of troubled economies across the world.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:22
EuroFoxi
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That link shows CON taking seats from LAB in places like Darlington, Newcastle, Leeds, Hull, York, Huddersfield, Birmingham etc. That's how bad this is. Never, ever would I have imagined these areas to be Tory.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:27
wizzywick
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That link shows CON taking seats from LAB in places like Darlington, Newcastle, Leeds, Hull, York, Huddersfield, Birmingham etc. That's how bad this is. Never, ever would I have imagined these areas to be Tory.
These areas voted "Leave" and the Tories are the only ones listening to them.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:31
EuroFoxi
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These areas voted "Leave" and the Tories are the only ones listening to them.
Most of them did. Labour certainly isn't listening to them, anyway!
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:32
Inspiration
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Pretty clear what's happening. UKIP is collapsing now we're leaving the EU and those UKIP voters are running home to mummy.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:42
weirlandia4eva
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Pretty clear what's happening. UKIP is collapsing now we're leaving the EU and those UKIP voters are running home to mummy.
As UKIP are down 3 points that would not explain the huge Tory lead.
BTW I have voted for UKIP in the last 2 elections. however prior to that I was a lifelong Labour voter. Next election I may possibly vote Tory but it would take a major policy and attitude change for me to go back to Labour.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:43
MargMck
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The lesson the London-centric Labour 'stronghold' won't learn - just like over Brexit - is that it doesn't matter how many votes they pile up for the likes of Corbyn, Thornberry, Abbott and McDonnell, the rest of the country now consistently says "You must be joking!", including normally left-leaning voters.
Their self-importance is currently seeing them through in this fantasy, but it's a sorry disaster for Labour that so many people like me 'in the sticks' won't vote for them.
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Old 19-10-2016, 17:43
Annsyre
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Very very encouraging.
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Old 19-10-2016, 18:27
Caxton
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IPSOS MORI

Con 47 (+7)
Lab 29 (-5)
LD 7 (+1)
UKIP 6 (-3)
No, it's an outlier.
Yes, yet another one.

I think this qualifies for another Jol favourite -- Ho! Ho! Ho!

Oh where are you Jol you are sorely missed ?
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Old 19-10-2016, 19:02
Radlestort
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Well, at least the rebels can no longer be blamed. The whole 'It's all because of the rebels, the coup, and the leadership contest' has been proven to be a load of old bull. Labour is now going even lower in the polls, now the leadership contest is over. Where is this new leader bounce that we were promised? The restored confidence once the rebels had stopped plotting? I don't see it. All I see is a Tory government for at least the next ten years.
Who promised a new leadership bounce?

It looks like the damage has been done. As I remarked somewhere upthread, Labour is back to the position it was when Corbyn took over. It took a while for the party to work its way back to parity (or near partiy, to be honest) in the polls. It will take a similar period of cohesion and unity before the voters look at Labour as anything other than a festering pit of vipers.
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Old 19-10-2016, 19:40
MartinP
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This chart hasn't yet been updated for the very latest poll, but it is interesting seeing the UKIP vote going down at the same time as the Conservatives going up. Labour just keep going down

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...short_axis.png
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Old 19-10-2016, 19:44
Annsyre
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This chart hasn't yet been updated for the very latest poll, but it is interesting seeing the UKIP vote going down at the same time as the Conservatives going up. Labour just keep going down

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...short_axis.png
Every picture tells a story.
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Old 19-10-2016, 22:46
Soppyfan
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IPSOS MORI

Con 47 (+7)
Lab 29 (-5)
LD 7 (+1)
UKIP 6 (-3)
Guess I was right about UKIP dropping in support long before 2020.
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Old 19-10-2016, 23:10
blueisthecolour
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IPSOS MORI

Con 47 (+7)
Lab 29 (-5)
LD 7 (+1)
UKIP 6 (-3)
Obviously the Tories now have free reign over a wide part of the political spectrum. UKIP are falling back to 'fruitcakes and loonies', the Lib Dems are dead and they don't even know it yet, Labour is now in engaged perpetual civil war where both sides are becoming more intransigent as time goes one.

My worry is that we end up in the same situation as the States. The right of the Tory party sees Brexit as an opportunity to push it's own agenda on government and eventually replace May with someone more hardline. The Blairites finally defeat Corbyn and purge the Momentum lot but in doing so they alienate themselves from large sections of their supporters - and end up as a shell-party kept going by corporate money and media backing (a la Clinton).

As each day goes on I see more and more evidence that we need to move to a PR system. Let the Corbynites and UKIPPERs stand on their own principles whilst the 'serious' parties of the centre battle fro swing voters.
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