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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Javed
29-10-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“Yes, mostly about airplanes, not the EU.”

I wouldn't be so sure :

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.t...?client=safari
Javed
29-10-2016
And if you don't like The Guardian or La Toynbee :

http://www.conservativehome.com/thet...-position.html

The Telegraph are also saying similar things
MargMck
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by Javed:
“And if you don't like The Guardian or La Toynbee :

http://www.conservativehome.com/thet...-position.html

The Telegraph are also saying similar things”

They can say what they like, but if it was true about Brexit then anti-runway man wouldn't be on nearly double that of anyone else in the polls in a Remain area.
smudges dad
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by Javed:
“And if you don't like The Guardian or La Toynbee :

http://www.conservativehome.com/thet...-position.html

The Telegraph are also saying similar things”

The Lib Dems may want to make it about the EU, but the voters may think differently.
Javed
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“They can say what they like, but if it was true about Brexit then anti-runway man wouldn't be on nearly double that of anyone else in the polls in a Remain area.”

His flight path is on a downward trajectory.
Javed
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“The Lib Dems may want to make it about the EU, but the voters may think differently.”

Well it's up to the opposition parties to convince them
mossy2103
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“In case you hadn't noticed, the referendum was in June. This is a by-election.”

However, the LibDems want to make it about Brexit.
platelet
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by MargMck:
“Yes, mostly about airplanes, not the EU.”

Who is the pro-Heathrow expansion candidate then?
Annsyre
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by Javed:
“Yes but no idea who. I don't know why Corbyn is insisting on splitting the Remain vote, makes no sense.”

Labour isn't standing afaik.
platelet
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Labour isn't standing afaik.”

The shadow cabinet is split over it. Jon Reynolds for example against standing anyone, John Healey insisting they must.

Naturally this disunity will be the fault of plotters and Tories briefing against each other. Dunno why Jerry allows them in his cabinet
Annsyre
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by platelet:
“The shadow cabinet is split over it. Jon Reynolds for example against standing anyone, John Healey insisting they must.

Naturally this disunity will be the fault of plotters and Tories briefing against each other. Dunno why Jerry allows them in his cabinet ”

Business as usual then in the shadow cabinet.
MartinP
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“In case you hadn't noticed, the referendum was in June. This is a by-election.”

Do you know there are some politicians in Scotland who still go on about the topic of a referendum they lost 2 years ago??
MARTYM8
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“The Lib Dems may want to make it about the EU, but the voters may think differently.”

We are leaving the EU but the third runway at Heathrow may not happen. Given the noise and impact on their sleep I expect the latter may play bigger in most people's votes.

Richmond park is one of the richest constituencies in England - most residents won't be affected much either way by Brexit.
MARTYM8
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by platelet:
“The shadow cabinet is split over it. Jon Reynolds for example against standing anyone, John Healey insisting they must.

Naturally this disunity will be the fault of plotters and Tories briefing against each other. Dunno why Jerry allows them in his cabinet ”

Pathetic if they don't stand - it looks opportunist.

If they don't Are they backing Zac or the Lib Dems - politically Zac winning would suit them far more.
smudges dad
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“Do you know there are some politicians in Scotland who still go on about the topic of a referendum they lost 2 years ago?? ”

You mean Ruth Davidson and Kezia Dugdale?

The pro independence politicians have moved on and are thinking about the next one.
MartinP
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“You mean Ruth Davidson and Kezia Dugdale?

The pro independence politicians have moved on and are thinking about the next one.”

No, they are quite happy to forget about re-running the things again. It's your best chums the SNP and pretend chums the greens who won't stop going on about it
Ian Aberdon
30-10-2016
No it's London-based commentators, media darlings & pro-union posters on various fora that cannot stop talking about it.
Javed
30-10-2016
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“We are leaving the EU but the third runway at Heathrow may not happen. Given the noise and impact on their sleep I expect the latter may play bigger in most people's votes.

Richmond park is one of the richest constituencies in England - most residents won't be affected much either way by Brexit.”

Just because people are well off or even rich, it doesn't follow that they do not have strong views about Brexit, on principle.
mossy2103
01-11-2016
Guardian/ICM (polling carried out 28th-30th Oct, 2040 adults):

Conservatives: 43% (nc)
Labour: 27% (+1)
Ukip: 12% (+1)
Lib Dems: 8% (nc)
Greens: 5% (-1)

Giving the Tories a 16 point lead.

So with things very quiet on the Corbyn Rebels front, Labour still cannot make any sort of advance.
Annsyre
01-11-2016
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“Guardian/ICM (polling carried out 28th-30th Oct, 2040 adults):

Conservatives: 43% (nc)
Labour: 27% (+1)
Ukip: 12% (+1)
Lib Dems: 8% (nc)
Greens: 5% (-1)

Giving the Tories a 16 point lead.

So with things very quiet on the Corbyn Rebels front, Labour still cannot make any sort of advance.”


Thanks. The Conservative lead steady over time.
mungobrush
01-11-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Thanks. The Conservative lead steady over time.”

Noooo, it must be another outlier
blueisthecolour
01-11-2016
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“Guardian/ICM (polling carried out 28th-30th Oct, 2040 adults):

Conservatives: 43% (nc)
Labour: 27% (+1)
Ukip: 12% (+1)
Lib Dems: 8% (nc)
Greens: 5% (-1)

Giving the Tories a 16 point lead.

So with things very quiet on the Corbyn Rebels front, Labour still cannot make any sort of advance.”

There hasnt' really been a lot of domestic politics going on the last month apart from isolated by-elections. I wouldn't expect any real movement in the polls.

Interesting to see UKIP still at the same level as the 2015 election. I really thought they would have dropped off further given what has happened to them recently.
Annsyre
01-11-2016
Originally Posted by blueisthecolour:
“There hasnt' really been a lot of domestic politics going on the last month apart from isolated by-elections. I wouldn't expect any real movement in the polls.

Interesting to see UKIP still at the same level as the 2015 election. I really thought they would have dropped off further given what has happened to them recently.”

There has been lots going on. Brexit.Carney. Orgreave.New benefit limits. To name but a few.

UKIP is a settled force (despite leadership issues)

May is trusted and popular. Corbyn the avowed socialist isn't.
Aristaeus
01-11-2016
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“Guardian/ICM (polling carried out 28th-30th Oct, 2040 adults):

Conservatives: 43% (nc)
Labour: 27% (+1)
Ukip: 12% (+1)
Lib Dems: 8% (nc)
Greens: 5% (-1)

Giving the Tories a 16 point lead.

So with things very quiet on the Corbyn Rebels front, Labour still cannot make any sort of advance.”

ICM polls always give the Tories bigger leads than other polling companies.

I don't see how Labour under Corbyn can catch up, given the media portrays him as an terrorist/ISIS supporter who hates Britain. How could any politician make headway in the polls with those sort of lies to fight against?
vauxhall1964
01-11-2016
Originally Posted by Aristaeus:
“ICM polls always give the Tories bigger leads than other polling companies.

I don't see how Labour under Corbyn can catch up, given the media portrays him as an terrorist/ISIS supporter who hates Britain. How could any politician make headway in the polls with those sort of lies to fight against?”

well in that case, given the pollsters' previous habit of overstating Labour support surely that makes ICM polls like this one nearer to what's really happening?
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