I think the next General Election will be Brexit style in that many people who just don't vote will actually do so, and for a socialist agenda.

Whether that will give Labour a win is hard to say.

IPSOS MORI has a weakening of Conservative support, albeit in comparison to the absurd poll that gave them a lead of 18 points in October.

CON 42% (-5%)
LAB 33% (+4%)
LDEM 10% (+3%)
UKIP 7% (+1%)
GRN 3%

So more a reversion to sanity than a Labour surge. Just as well no one took the +18 lead seriously, eh?

I would've treated the 18-point lead with huge caution.

Nice to see the Libdems coming back, but the upcoming Richmond Park by-election will determine if that rise continues or falls again.

He supported the IRA and other terrorist groups but does not support IS

I would have never said this 18 months ago - but I don't trust the polls either way. I think they are now fundamentally unable to capture a large part of the voting public.

6 1/2 years into Government and the Tories have a 9% poll lead. Astonishing.

I would expect a bigger lead considering the lack of sensible opposition.

And true to form another pollster Opinium has the Tory lead growing

Tories 41 up 1
Labour 29 down 3
UKIP 12
LD 7

Were there not a couple of other polls that gave the Tories a similar lead? Best wait to see what those polls say maybe?

Oh, I'm sorry, are we believing the opinion polls now?

Nothing to do with belief, just and observation that Labour are still trailing the Conservatives and have been for months on end.

Voting Intention:

CON 42% (+1%)
LAB 28% (+1%)
LDEM 8% (-2%)
UKIP 11% (NC)
SNP 6% (-1%)
Green 4% (NC)

Which of the following would make the best Prime Minister?

Theresa May 47% (-1%)
Don't Know 36% (+2%)
Jerry Corbyn 17% (-1%)

link

No - we just observe them and how all over the place they are again.

Never forget that in June 2015 MORI reported remain was on 66 per cent and leave on only 22 per cent - a massive 44 per cent remain lead. At the same time Donald Trump was scoring barely 1 per cent in the Republican primary polls. Yet within a year leave had won and Trump is now President elect.

So it shows the public mood can change massively and polls can be wrong.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchp...year-high.aspx

I'll do it, seeing as we haven't heard from Jol for so long ........
And its getting close to Christmas

Ho Ho Ho

That's it Phil, take the positives out of it.

Ohh look another random number generator, it might as well be called that, for how much use polls have been as of late!

BIB, slight correction.

Don't Know is over twice as popular as Jeremy Corbyn.

Only if you believe those random put together numbers!

Going back to 21st Nov, ICM‘s regular poll for the Guardian:

CON 42%(-1)
LAB 28%(+1)
LDEM 9%(+1)
UKIP 11%(-1)
GRN 3%(-2).



Opinium for the Observer last weekend:

CON 41%(+1)
LAB 29%(-3)
LDEM 7%(+1)
UKIP 12%(-1)



Up to date now, with YouGov:

Con 41% (+1)
Lab 28% (nc)
LD 9% (+1)
UKIP 12% (+1)


Polls now show a broad 12 - 14 point lead for the Tories.

So, even with the existence of UKIP to potentially siphon off Tory votes (while holding steady ahead of the pitiful Lib Dems), the Cons still have around a double figure lead. I think as long as they continue to pedal towards Brexit they will keep it, any slowing down will only help UKIP. And between them, UKIP and Tories have 50%+ of the vote.
Somewhere along the line Labour are going to have to deal with the lost Labour votes to UKIP and general drain from the Corbyn Effect, but heaven knows how with the current mess they are in.

Here's an interesting poll from YouGov!
http://c.newsnow.co.uk/A/2/860351088?-15102:21126:0

To be fair I doubt most people know what to make of the main political parties right now. But it is interesting that Labour have not been able to make any headway with Corbyn out of the headlines and the absence of Labour infighting.

Nah labour won't honour Brexit

I'll be looking at UKIP to shock the world ! if hard Brexit isn't carried out

Dirty Brexiters.