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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 25-11-2016, 21:09
MARTYM8
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Given the three percent margin of error it's basically a tie!

How many go commando?
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Old 26-11-2016, 06:28
peter3hg
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Given the three percent margin of error it's basically a tie!

How many go commando?
Presumably the 3% of people who responded "Not Applicable".
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Old 29-11-2016, 10:17
bass55
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ICM/Guardian

Con 44 (+2)
Lab 28 (=)
Ukip 12 (=)
Lib 7 (-2)
Green 4 (+1)

What Labour needs is more tributes to Castro
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Old 29-11-2016, 10:26
Tassium
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Labour just don't talk about anything that matters.

Although I'm sure they think that's all they ever talk about!

It's almost like a student union vibe I'm getting...
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Old 29-11-2016, 10:39
NeverEnough
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Labour just don't talk about anything that matters.

Although I'm sure they think that's all they ever talk about!

It's almost like a student union vibe I'm getting...
But I'm sure Momentum's student radical lead ethnically sensitive gender neutral focus group have assured Jeremy that their research has shown that the JAMs are talking about strategies to combat racism, mysogeny and homophobia as they're trawling the net trying to find the cheapest possible xmas presents.
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Old 29-11-2016, 10:59
Annsyre
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Con 44 (+2)
Lab 28 (=)
Ukip 12 (=)
Lib 7 (-2)
Green 4 (+1)

What Labour needs is more tributes to Castro
A picture of Corbyn at Castro's funeral should do the trick.
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Old 29-11-2016, 13:09
MargMck
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Labour just don't talk about anything that matters.

Although I'm sure they think that's all they ever talk about!

It's almost like a student union vibe I'm getting...
Dan Jarvis popped up on Sky News yesterday (he's been out knocking on doors in the North, Midlands and places like Essex again) and said Labour had to face up to the potential problem it has from UKIP.
Meanwhile, on "student vibe", the only demographic Labour now lead on is in the 18-24 group, so that makes sense - otherwise they trail on all age sets, gender and social grades, even the poorest.
The likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry should be ashamed - but they have no shame, just ideological nonsense to spout.
And it's clear that trying to "save" us from Brexit is doing the Lib Dems no favours at all. Farron must be very disappointed.
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Old 29-11-2016, 15:10
batdude_uk1
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Dan Jarvis popped up on Sky News yesterday (he's been out knocking on doors in the North, Midlands and places like Essex again) and said Labour had to face up to the potential problem it has from UKIP.
Meanwhile, on "student vibe", the only demographic Labour now lead on is in the 18-24 group, so that makes sense - otherwise they trail on all age sets, gender and social grades, even the poorest.
The likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry should be ashamed - but they have no shame, just ideological nonsense to spout.
And it's clear that trying to "save" us from Brexit is doing the Lib Dems no favours at all. Farron must be very disappointed.
Where are you getting these demographics from, don't tell me, another failed polling company??
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Old 29-11-2016, 17:52
Radlestort
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The likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry should be ashamed - but they have no shame, just ideological nonsense to spout.
Why? Prior to the Chicken Coup, Labour were virtually neck on neck with the Tories. Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry didn't seem to be such a problem then. It's almost like the Eagle-Smith challenge turned a lot off people off, and the simultaneous appearance of Theresa May seemed an attractive option.

Give the Tories time to start tearing each other to pieces again.
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Old 29-11-2016, 18:50
MargMck
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Where are you getting these demographics from, don't tell me, another failed polling company??
I think we get it that you don't believe any of the numerous opinion polls, whether commissioned by papers like the Guardian, or coming from various companies. The one thing we can say about the polls is that when it comes to actual voting they tend to underestimate the Tory / right wing vote.


Why? Prior to the Chicken Coup, Labour were virtually neck on neck with the Tories. Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry didn't seem to be such a problem then. It's almost like the Eagle-Smith challenge turned a lot off people off, and the simultaneous appearance of Theresa May seemed an attractive option.

Give the Tories time to start tearing each other to pieces again.
Never under-estimate 'the Corbyn effect', and by that I mean the anti-Corbyn vote. People expected him (and the likes of Abbott) to have gone by now and perhaps someone sensible to be in charge of the opposition. But there he is, still in charge and fantasising about Trident, so voting intention has hardened against Labour.

You can add in Labour's hideous performance during Brexit, when no one from the then front bench excelled, coming across as strident (Eagle), lying about what they really believed (Corbyn) or snobby (Thornberry).
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:19
smudges dad
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I think we get it that you don't believe any of the numerous opinion polls, whether commissioned by papers like the Guardian, or coming from various companies. The one thing we can say about the polls is that when it comes to actual voting they tend to underestimate the Tory / right wing vote.




Never under-estimate 'the Corbyn effect', and by that I mean the anti-Corbyn vote. People expected him (and the likes of Abbott) to have gone by now and perhaps someone sensible to be in charge of the opposition. But there he is, still in charge and fantasising about Trident, so voting intention has hardened against Labour.

You can add in Labour's hideous performance during Brexit, when no one from the then front bench excelled, coming across as strident (Eagle), lying about what they really believed (Corbyn) or snobby (Thornberry).
THe Thornbury snobbism was invented / distorted by the press.
Corbyn worked harder and attended more Remain events than almost everyone else and the only people to accuse him of lying have an agenda.
Labour were destroyed by the rebels turning onwards instead of attacking the Tories at their weakest. Their failure is firmly in the hands of Benn and co.
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:36
MartinP
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Why? Prior to the Chicken Coup, Labour were virtually neck on neck with the Tories. Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and Thornberry didn't seem to be such a problem then. It's almost like the Eagle-Smith challenge turned a lot off people off, and the simultaneous appearance of Theresa May seemed an attractive option
You keep on spouting this, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny I'm afraid. There were 3 polls just after the March budget that put Labour slightly ahead, but 5 polls in the same period putting the Conservatives 5 or more points ahead. Prior to this period there were recent polls with the Conservatives up to 14 points ahead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election

Jeremy Corbyn has received a significant boost from a new opinion poll which gives Labour a slender lead for the first time since he replaced Ed Miliband. The YouGov poll for The Times put Labour on 34 per cent and the Tories on 33 per cent and also showed plunging ratings for George Osborne, the Chancellor, in the aftermath of a Budget judged “unfair” for the first time since his 2012 “omnishambles”.

http://labourlist.org/2016/03/shock-...unfair-budget/

Furthermore Labour have been keeping fairly quiet about their leader over the last few months and they are still behind by 16, 17 or 18 points behind your party.

You're in a dreamworld, I'm afraid.
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:37
batdude_uk1
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I think we get it that you don't believe any of the numerous opinion polls, whether commissioned by papers like the Guardian, or coming from various companies. The one thing we can say about the polls is that when it comes to actual voting they tend to underestimate the Tory / right wing vote.




Never under-estimate 'the Corbyn effect', and by that I mean the anti-Corbyn vote. People expected him (and the likes of Abbott) to have gone by now and perhaps someone sensible to be in charge of the opposition. But there he is, still in charge and fantasising about Trident, so voting intention has hardened against Labour.

You can add in Labour's hideous performance during Brexit, when no one from the then front bench excelled, coming across as strident (Eagle), lying about what they really believed (Corbyn) or snobby (Thornberry).
I don't believe them because they are worthless, and pointless, as they have been so very wrong on all of the big moments.

The only polls I believe are the proper ones, i.e. the actual election total, or referendum total, as they show how people have voted, there is no chance of people living there, as they do to polling companies.

Polls are a complete waste of time, effort and money, I have no idea why people take a shred of notice what these companies say.
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:38
batdude_uk1
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You keep on spouting this, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny I'm afraid. There were 3 polls just after the March budget that put Labour slightly ahead, but 5 polls in the same period putting the Conservatives 5 or more points ahead. Prior to this period there were recent polls with the Conservatives up to 14 points ahead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election

Jeremy Corbyn has received a significant boost from a new opinion poll which gives Labour a slender lead for the first time since he replaced Ed Miliband. The YouGov poll for The Times put Labour on 34 per cent and the Tories on 33 per cent and also showed plunging ratings for George Osborne, the Chancellor, in the aftermath of a Budget judged “unfair” for the first time since his 2012 “omnishambles”.

http://labourlist.org/2016/03/shock-...unfair-budget/

Furthermore Labour have been keeping fairly quiet about their leader over the last few months and they are still behind by 16, 17 or 18 points behind your party.

You're in a dreamworld, I'm afraid.
Oh dear more fantasy numbers, can anyone join in with this, and can we all just think of a number of of the top of our heads??!
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:39
MartinP
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Labour were destroyed by the rebels turning onwards instead of attacking the Tories at their weakest. Their failure is firmly in the hands of Benn and co.
I guess the rebels thought their own party leadership was weaker than the Conservatives at that time. Are you in favour of MPs speaking their minds or lying and pretending to agree with a leader that they totally disagree with? Is the integrity of an MP in standing up for what they believe in not important to you?

p.s. do you think the Tories will ever poll below 40%?
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:40
MartinP
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Oh dear more fantasy numbers, can anyone join in with this, and can we all just think of a number of of the top of our heads??!
Um I was answering someone who was using the same numbers to make a different point. Keep your fingers in your ears if it makes you feel better.

The polls may have been slightly wrong in the past but never this wrong.
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:43
batdude_uk1
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Um I was answering someone who was using the same numbers to make a different point. Keep your fingers in your ears if it makes you feel better.

The polls may have been slightly wrong in the past but never this wrong.
Polling companies have had their day, for too long people took their numbers as Gospel, that simply should not be the case anymore.
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:44
MartinP
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Polling companies have had their day, for too long people took their numbers as Gospel, that simply should not be the case anymore.
I guess if you don't like the results they are predicting then disbelieving them is all you have left! And then when the election proves them fairly correct (they usually underestimate Conservative results) then I suppose you can always blame the media and gullible voters.
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Old 29-11-2016, 19:53
smudges dad
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I guess the rebels thought their own party leadership was weaker than the Conservatives at that time. Are you in favour of MPs speaking their minds or lying and pretending to agree with a leader that they totally disagree with? Is the integrity of an MP in standing up for what they believe in not important to you?

p.s. do you think the Tories will ever poll below 40%?
We'll, most of the Tory MPs seem willing to lie and pretend to support everything May says. The Labour rebel MPs just showed total ineptitude in everything they did after the referendum in timing and tactics. That almost make Scottish Labour look competent (almost, but no-one can be as bad as Murphy / Dugdale etc).
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Old 29-11-2016, 20:51
platelet
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ICM/Guardian

Con 44 (+2)
Lab 28 (=)
Ukip 12 (=)
Lib 7 (-2)
Green 4 (+1)

What Labour needs is more tributes to Castro
Ho Ho Ho

Originally Posted by Laboutlist
The Tories have posted their highest lead over Labour for seven years, according to new research.

The government are also leading in every social group, including those least well off, and amongst all age groups apart from 18-24-year-olds.

The Conservative score of 44 per cent in the Guardian/ICM poll is their best since October 2009, and only one point shy of their all time high in surveys carried out for the two companies.
http://labourlist.org/2016/11/tories...ancial-crisis/
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Old 29-11-2016, 20:54
Annsyre
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We'll, most of the Tory MPs seem willing to lie and pretend to support everything May says. The Labour rebel MPs just showed total ineptitude in everything they did after the referendum in timing and tactics. That almost make Scottish Labour look competent (almost, but no-one can be as bad as Murphy / Dugdale etc).
Like everyone else, the Conservative M.P.s are coping with the referendum result. In addition they are dealing with the resignation of the PM and the election of a new PM and are supporting her efforts to deal with a quite unique political problem for which there is no blueprint. The Conservatives won the 2015 GE and are in government with a working majority of eighteen. Of course they are being supportive of their leader unlike Corbyn's Parliamentary Labour colleagues.

And the electorate does not like divided political parties.

The Conservative lead over Labour started when Cameron was PM and is continuing under May.

Sadly we wont be treated to a picture of Corbyn at Castro's funeral.

Jeremy Corbyn has turned down an invitation to attend the funeral of his Cuban Communist hero Fidel Castro.

The Labour leader faced criticism for praising the revolutionary leader as 'a huge figure of modern history' in the wake of his death over the weekend.

Following the backlash Mr Corbyn, a regular keynote speaker at the Cuba Solidarity Campaign for more than a decade, has decided to send Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry instead.

Theresa May and Boris Johnson both snubbed their invitations and will instead send the Foreign Secretary's deputy - Sir Alan Duncan - to the funeral on Sunday.
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Old 29-11-2016, 21:00
mungobrush
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I miss Jol

"I'd be happy with that"
"Vile Tory scum"
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Old 29-11-2016, 21:19
Caxton
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With so much support for Castro and Cuba from Corbyn won't the Cuban's take it as a snub that Labour are sending Emily Thornberry instead?
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Old 29-11-2016, 21:25
Annsyre
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With so much support for Castro and Cuba from Corbyn won't the Cuban's take it as a snub that Labour are sending Emily Thornberry instead?
Of course not, Thornberry is renowned for her respect for the working man.
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Old 29-11-2016, 21:31
Caxton
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Of course not, Thornberry is renowned for her respect for the working man.
But she is NOT Labour's head honcho, but just an underling as far as Labour are concerned.
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