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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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mungobrush
05-12-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“For instance, if there is less poverty, why are there about a million uses of food banks per year. Is that a sign of a booming economy?”

Poverty and homelessness in the U.K. are on the decline
That's official. They have been declining for decades

Food banks are booming because they are an effective way of helping poor and homeless people.

I know that your prejudices wont let you see that but they are a sign of the increasing generosity of British people

It's the big society in action
smudges dad
05-12-2016
Originally Posted by mungobrush:
“Poverty and homelessness in the U.K. are on the decline
That's official. They have been declining for decades

Food banks are booming because they are an effective way of helping poor and homeless people.

I know that your prejudices wont let you see that but they are a sign of the increasing generosity of British people

It's the big society in action”

You call them prejudices, I call them principles.

I think it is repugnant that one of the richest countries in the world has people relying on food banks.

However, can we go back to discussing opinion polls on the opinion poll thread?
Tassium
05-12-2016
Originally Posted by vanzandtfan:
“So, a strong male leader is an "alpha male", whereas a strong female leader is a "complete cold bitch"?

And "labour need an alpha male leader". Seriously?

If your attitude is representative of the left I can only imagine it will be a long long time before we see a female labour leader.”

There is this trend of the "right" proclaiming high moral principles in recent years.


They don't mean a word of it of course. It's rather like when the left take on board some stated principles of the right merely as a means to get elected.

New Labour in power were just as lefty-loony as Old Labour, and the touchy-feely Conservatives (2010-) were no different than something from the 19th century.
vanzandtfan
05-12-2016
Originally Posted by Tassium:
“There is this trend of the "right" proclaiming high moral principles in recent years.


They don't mean a word of it of course. It's rather like when the left take on board some stated principles of the right merely as a means to get elected.

New Labour in power were just as lefty-loony as Old Labour, and the touchy-feely Conservatives (2010-) were no different than something from the 19th century.”

I have no idea what this has to do with my post, it certainly doesn't address any of the points I made.

Just deflection to avoid addressing your blatant misogyny
Dog_Bot
09-12-2016
Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.
Dog_Bot
09-12-2016
More details:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/12/09...ion-lowest-le/

Don't Know 4 PM
Caxton
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.”

Labour moving in the right direction
Annsyre
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by Caxton:
“Labour moving in the right direction”

Absolutely.
d'@ve
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.”

Given the recent success rate of political opinion polling, it probably means Labour are a dead cert to win the next general election.
paulschapman
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by d'@ve:
“Given the recent success rate of political opinion polling, it probably means Labour are a dead cert to win the next general election.”

Look at the popular vote figures in the US Election and you will find that the figures the polls got are not that far wrong, even with Brexit the final result was within the margin for error.
smudges dad
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.”

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...Trackers_W.pdf
Interesting to look at the regions
Scotland
SNP 50% (no real change)
Con 26
Lab 12 (congratulations Kezia!!!)
LD 6
UKIP 5 (more than they've ever got in a Scottish election! - probably spurious without further data)
Green 2

North
Con 34
Lab 39
LD 10
UKIP 12
Green 3
Jamie6767
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.”

The Corbyn Trough continues.

"Onwards comrades! The cliff is this way..."
EuroFoxi
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.”

No, no. This can't be right! We were constantly told by the Corbynista's that Labour's lower poll results were due to the ongoing coup in the party and the leadership challenge. Well, well, well. Now there is no coup and no leadership challenge and they're at their lowest share.

What's the new excuse, guys?
platelet
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by EuroFoxi:
“No, no. This can't be right! We were constantly told by the Corbynista's that Labour's lower poll results were due to the ongoing coup in the party and the leadership challenge. Well, well, well. Now there is no coup and no leadership challenge and they're at their lowest share.

What's the new excuse, guys?”

There's another coup, this time coming from the left, and within the Corbyn faithful. It's the return of the trots
BanglaRoad
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...Trackers_W.pdf
Interesting to look at the regions
Scotland
SNP 50% (no real change)
Con 26
Lab 12 (congratulations Kezia!!!)
LD 6
UKIP 5 (more than they've ever got in a Scottish election! - probably spurious without further data)
Green 2

North
Con 34
Lab 39
LD 10
UKIP 12
Green 3”

Mr 11% Nuttall has work to do.
Having a northern accent really isn't the vote winner he thinks.
Annsyre
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by BanglaRoad:
“Mr 11% Nuttall has work to do.
Having a northern accent really isn't the vote winner he thinks.”

And how. The boundary changes will affect the results and perhaps figures.
johnny_boi_UK
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...Trackers_W.pdf
Interesting to look at the regions
Scotland
SNP 50% (no real change)
Con 26
Lab 12 (congratulations Kezia!!!)
LD 6
UKIP 5 (more than they've ever got in a Scottish election! - probably spurious without further data)
Green 2

North
Con 34
Lab 39
LD 10
UKIP 12
Green 3”

Here I thought I was the only Tory in scotland
Soppyfan
09-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.”

Nice to see the Libdems finally catching up to UKIP.
NeverEnough
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by johnny_boi_UK:
“Here I thought I was the only Tory in scotland”

I'm quite taken aback that Labour is only polling 12% in Scotland. I thought one of the theories regarding the SNP vote was that it was left wing, and therefore a Left Wing Labour leader would win back support. An Interesting thoughtful analysis (maybe) but kind of ignored the Scottish Independence bit of the SNP support.

Surely only the type of leftist who thinks it's a good idea to call voters deplorables, and calls over 50% of the electorate uneducated bigots, would believe that a London centric leader, supported by a London centric team, would win back favour in Scotland.

"How dare the Jocks ignore my high powered intellectual analysis Tarquin!"

"I guess their brains just don't work on our level Serena"
Dacco
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by Soppyfan:
“Nice to see the Libdems finally catching up to UKIP.”

Probably another spurious result in this poll.
MARTYM8
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by paulschapman:
“Look at the popular vote figures in the US Election and you will find that the figures the polls got are not that far wrong, even with Brexit the final result was within the margin for error.”

The final Populus poll published on 23 June had remain 10 per cent ahead - so some pollsters were way outside the margin of error.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7097261.html

And this was of course the pollster Cameron was using - no wonder he got the mood of the country wrong as he used a pollster who got it totally wrong.

He presumably thought he had it in the bag and his tactics were working.
smudges dad
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by NeverEnough:
“I'm quite taken aback that Labour is only polling 12% in Scotland. I thought one of the theories regarding the SNP vote was that it was left wing, and therefore a Left Wing Labour leader would win back support. An Interesting thoughtful analysis (maybe) but kind of ignored the Scottish Independence bit of the SNP support.

Surely only the type of leftist who thinks it's a good idea to call voters deplorables, and calls over 50% of the electorate uneducated bigots, would believe that a London centric leader, supported by a London centric team, would win back favour in Scotland.

"How dare the Jocks ignore my high powered intellectual analysis Tarquin!"

"I guess their brains just don't work on our level Serena"”

The sample size for Scotland was only about 150, so the margin of error is quite high. However, it fits pretty well with national figures with Labour down and the Tories up. I would guess that the UKIP figure is an outlier in Scotland, based on it being so high compared to previous results, especially in the regional vote in Scotland.

Labour in Scotland is about half the UK figure so considering the SNP has about 50%, it's probably not far out. Kezia Dugdale is the real problem with Labour in Scotland at the moment, but as with Corbyn, there's no one else around to do the job.
Miasima Goria
10-12-2016
YouGov survey indicates Leave voters are worried about losing out financially Brexit. But looking at this, despite thay a referendum tomorrow could still result in a Leave resulr

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lib-dem-yougov
Tassium
10-12-2016
Worrying about economics is normal.

It would be the same if the vote had been for Remain, perhaps more so considering where things are with Europe at the moment..
MargMck
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by Tassium:
“Worrying about economics is normal.

It would be the same if the vote had been for Remain, perhaps more so considering where things are with Europe at the moment..”

Yep, it's a loaded question - the poll is for the group who used to campaign for Remain.
Wonder what the result would be if you asked people:
"Would you be unhappy if staying in the EU cost you more money in the future?"
Only the most diehard Remainers would say ""Ooooh, yes please, how much do you want?"
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