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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Miasima Goria
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by Tassium:
“Worrying about economics is normal.

It would be the same if the vote had been for Remain, perhaps more so considering where things are with Europe at the moment..”

True. Though if the poll is accurate it also indicates that people do not want a Brexit that leaves them worse off financially, moreso those in Leave areas. But they will want out.

May is not going to have an easy time squaring this.
LostFool
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by Miasima Goria:
“YouGov survey indicates Leave voters are worried about losing out financially Brexit. But looking at this, despite thay a referendum tomorrow could still result in a Leave resulr

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...lib-dem-yougov”

Some interesting results in there. Only 5% think they will be better off but only 10% would be prepared to be £100 a month poorer
Miasima Goria
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by Miasima Goria:
“True. Though if the poll is accurate it also indicates that people do not want a Brexit that leaves them worse off financially, moreso those in Leave areas. But they will want out.

May is not going to have an easy time squaring this.”

Originally Posted by LostFool:
“Some interesting results in there. Only 5% think they will be better off but only 10% would be prepared to be £100 a month poorer”

I guess everything has its price. I do wonder if those they refer to in the the article thought they would win from Brexit, or maybe others would be the losers? If food inflation for example kicks in before Brexit happens then how keen will they be to leave the EU?
Though regardless of what happens, the EU and Remain boogeymen will get the blame.
Cloudy2
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by johnny_boi_UK:
“Here I thought I was the only Tory in scotland”

Soon to be millions?
Aurora13
10-12-2016
Originally Posted by NeverEnough:
“I'm quite taken aback that Labour is only polling 12% in Scotland. I thought one of the theories regarding the SNP vote was that it was left wing, and therefore a Left Wing Labour leader would win back support. An Interesting thoughtful analysis (maybe) but kind of ignored the Scottish Independence bit of the SNP support.

Surely only the type of leftist who thinks it's a good idea to call voters deplorables, and calls over 50% of the electorate uneducated bigots, would believe that a London centric leader, supported by a London centric team, would win back favour in Scotland.

"How dare the Jocks ignore my high powered intellectual analysis Tarquin!"

"I guess their brains just don't work on our level Serena"”

SNP built up its support in ex. Tory areas when their vote collapsed. SNP became the anti Labour vote! Referendum brought in a swathe of Labour voters to nationalism. SNP had now positioned itself very left and destroyed Labour. Is it any surprise that by doing this they've lost some unionist ex. Tories now they've got a decent leader in Scotland.
thorr
11-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“Britain Elects
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
UKIP: 12% (-2)g
LDEM: 11% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via YouGov / 04 - 05 Dec)

Labour's lowest share since it was last in government.”

Ho ho ho! Lovely!
bass55
12-12-2016
ICM 9-11 December

CON: 41% (-3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
GRN: 3% (-1)
Annsyre
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by bass55:
“ICM 9-11 December

CON: 41% (-3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LDEM: 9% (+2)
GRN: 3% (-1)”

Many thanks.

UKIP and LD going up.
Dog_Bot
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Many thanks.

UKIP and LD going up.”

& Labour still going down - any loss from the Conservatives is either going to UKIP or the Lib Dems
Dacco
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Dog_Bot:
“& Labour still going down - any loss from the Conservatives is either going to UKIP or the Lib Dems”

Tory's to UKIP, Labour to LD?
smudges dad
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Many thanks.

UKIP and LD going up.”

This sort of movement is just noise - need to look at trends over a month or so from different pollsters. Still looks bad for Labour, no matter how you look at it (and a lot worse in Scotland).
Annsyre
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“This sort of movement is just noise - need to look at trends over a month or so from different pollsters. Still looks bad for Labour, no matter how you look at it (and a lot worse in Scotland).”

I do look at trends and for months the trend has been for the Conservatives leading Labour by a margin of 14 to 17 points with Labour last week at its lowest point since 1983
Caxton
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“I do look at trends and for months the trend has been for the Conservatives leading Labour by a margin of 14 to 17 points with Labour last week at its lowest point since 1983”

Looking at any polls Labour are going in the right direction. Labour are like limbo dancers on speed -- how low can they go, lower and lower they go, they bend over backwards to please
Annsyre
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Caxton:
“Looking at any polls Labour are going in the right direction. Labour are like limbo dancers on speed -- how low can they go, lower and lower they go, they bend over backwards to please”

As long as Corbyn keeps Abbot, Shakrabati and Thornberry close by his fate is sealed.
Caxton
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“As long as Corbyn keeps Abbot, Shakrabati and Thornberry close by his fate is sealed.”

Even without them, I do not give much for his chances, who has he got from the remaining rabble in his party. All he has that believe in him are the remnants from a bygone age of unionised one-track mind, flag waving, drum banging, chanting, marching has-beens.

Mainly ex- miners and shipbuilders with a huge chip on their shoulder and a grudge against anything that is not Labour through and through,or tainted with the red flag, and as years go by these followers are all dying off, hence the lack of support for Labour They are just a dinosaur party living in the past.
Annsyre
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Caxton:
“Even without them, I do not give much for his chances, who has he got from the remaining rabble in his party. All he has that believe in him are the remnants from a bygone age of unionised one-track mind, flag waving, drum banging, chanting, marching has-beens.

Mainly ex- miners and shipbuilders with a huge chip on their shoulder and a grudge against anything that is not Labour through and through,or tainted with the red flag, and as years go by these followers are all dying off, hence the lack of support for Labour They are just a dinosaur party living in the past.”

Many ex-miners and steel and ship workers are turning to UKIP.
smudges dad
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Many ex-miners and steel and ship workers are turning to UKIP.”

Do you have evidence of that?
Annsyre
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Do you have evidence of that?”

Yes they live in the constituencies where Labour voters are turning to UKIP
smudges dad
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Yes they live in the constituencies where Labour voters are turning to UKIP”

Therefore no evidence, only guess work. You really need to do better.
Annsyre
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Therefore no evidence, only guess work. You really need to do better.”

Not guess work.

UKIP are snapping at Labour's heels in Wales for example.
smudges dad
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Not guess work.

UKIP are snapping at Labour's heels in Wales for example.”

Unless you've seen reports or polls where ex miners, steelworkers or ship builders are identified as moving to UKIP in significant numbers, it is total guesswork.
hoppyuppy
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by smudges dad;84877343[B:
“Unless you've seen reports or polls [b]where ex miners, steelworkers or ship builders are identified as moving to UKIP in significant numbers, it is total guesswork.”

Brilliant, somebody still believes polls!!!

Do you have a pet Dodo?
smudges dad
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by hoppyuppy:
“Brilliant, somebody still believes polls!!!

Do you have a pet Dodo?”

Yes, I call it Hoppy Uppy
platelet
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“I do look at trends and for months the trend has been for the Conservatives leading Labour by a margin of 14 to 17 points with Labour last week at its lowest point since 1983”

And that whilst Jerry has been enjoying his "new leader" honeymoon, and the PLP have been playing nice. Signs from the weekly PLP meet seem to be the honeymoon is over
Annsyre
12-12-2016
Originally Posted by platelet:
“And that whilst Jerry has been enjoying his "new leader" honeymoon, and the PLP have been playing nice. Signs from the weekly PLP meet seem to be the honeymoon is over”

Abbott said on Sunday that in a year's time Labour's poll figures would be up and that they were a real challenge to the Conservatives.
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