DS Forums

 
 

Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 02-01-2017, 20:29
Annsyre
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,113
Tories falling a little as well though with UKIP still third despite being a shambles right now, but could be an outliner until we see others polling more or less the same numbers.
The Copeland result will shed a little more light.
Annsyre is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 02-01-2017, 20:31
smudges dad
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Fort William
Posts: 22,269
New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)
Only 89% - no link available yet, so assume SNP~6%, Greens 4% and PC 1%. It's rare that the top 4 drop below 90%
smudges dad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2017, 20:33
MartinP
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
Posts: 28,048
New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)
I think this is Labour's lowest rating since June 1983 when they were on 23%
MartinP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2017, 20:36
smudges dad
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Fort William
Posts: 22,269
I think this is Labour's lowest rating since June 1983 when they were on 23%
Last I heard was they were down to 12% in Scotland. Maybe they'll get single figures there in the council elections.
smudges dad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2017, 20:45
MartinP
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
Posts: 28,048
A far way from 1995 when a Gallup poll gave the following figures

Conservatives 18.5%
Labour 62%
Lib Dems 14%

Labour lead of 43.5 points
MartinP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2017, 20:45
platelet
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: GL51 0EX
Posts: 14,090
New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)
Any idea of the dates the polling was done? I'm just curious if this is before the Corbyn relaunch began with his challenging UKIP; if it's the effects of that challenge - or if it's just where we should set the bar for the coming months' Ho Ho Hos
platelet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2017, 20:46
k0213818
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 5,750
New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)
So based on recent poll accuracy it's a Labour Landslide in 2020.
k0213818 is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2017, 20:50
platelet
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: GL51 0EX
Posts: 14,090
So based on recent poll accuracy it's a Labour Landslide in 2020.
Nope based on recent polling accuracy the Labour vote is inflated and when the shy Tories are added the land will slide right over Labour's coffin
platelet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2017, 20:51
MartinP
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
Posts: 28,048
Last I heard was they were down to 12% in Scotland. Maybe they'll get single figures there in the council elections.
I was wrong, Populus had Labour on 21% in 2009. So maybe there is a way back for Corbyn....
MartinP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 07:05
mossy2103
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,698
Any idea of the dates the polling was done? I'm just curious if this is before the Corbyn relaunch began with his challenging UKIP; if it's the effects of that challenge - or if it's just where we should set the bar for the coming months' Ho Ho Hos
Looks like it was 18th/19th December

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...773696?lang=en
mossy2103 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 07:11
mossy2103
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,698
I was wrong, Populus had Labour on 21% in 2009. So maybe there is a way back for Corbyn....
Not according to the Fabian Society as reported in the Guardian, They suggest that Labour could get 20% of the vote and fewer than 200 seats, possibly failing to around 140.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...fabian-society
mossy2103 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 08:44
Annsyre
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,113
Not according to the Fabian Society as reported in the Guardian, They suggest that Labour could get 20% of the vote and fewer than 200 seats, possibly failing to around 140.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...fabian-society
Quite a stark analysis of Labour's position.

A spokeswoman for Corbyn said: “Rebuilding Labour support after its fragmentation at the 2015 election was always going to be a challenge. But Labour under Jeremy Corbyn will be taking its case to every part of Britain in the coming months with a radical policy platform, offering the only genuine alternative to a failed parliament political establishment and the fake anti-elitists of the hard right.”

Wonder which spokeswoman that could be.
Annsyre is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 09:44
Jakobjoe
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: deploRable town centre
Posts: 6,210
New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)
lol..labour are sinking. how low can they go.
i think the issues in the coming year will be the brexit related ones ..will we pay 12 billion a year to something we have left. which will play in to ukips hands and also the bloated foreign aid mess versus the council tax rises at home for social care for the elderly. i dont think the tories will continue to be so popular as they waste money.
all could help UKIP get to 20 per cent plus by the autumn. maybe they can get second place and replace labour.
Jakobjoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 11:15
Tassium
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,400
It'll be interesting if Labour manage to pick up support when support for Theresa May/Tories thins out.

I doubt it. Jeremy Corbyn just doesn't have the charisma.
Tassium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 11:34
Annsyre
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,113
It'll be interesting if Labour manage to pick up support when support for Theresa May/Tories thins out.

I doubt it. Jeremy Corbyn just doesn't have the charisma.
May is going to build homes - her popularity wont thin out.
Annsyre is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 12:01
Tassium
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,400
May is going to build homes - her popularity wont thin out.
She never actually delivers on her promises though.
Tassium is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 12:20
Annsyre
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,113
She never actually delivers on her promises though.
Well according to all of today's news outlets this one will be kept. Houses will be built all over the country.
Annsyre is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 12:43
platelet
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: GL51 0EX
Posts: 14,090
Cool so this is the benchmark by which Corbyn 2.0 can be judged. I look forward to a massive jump in the coming weeks
platelet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 12:47
James_Orton
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 1,004
Well according to all of today's news outlets this one will be kept. Houses will be built all over the country.
Houses are always built. The question is who wins the PR battle on building them and who loses for stalling them.
James_Orton is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 14:19
Soppyfan
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: My DJ Studio
Posts: 27,072
lol..labour are sinking. how low can they go.
i think the issues in the coming year will be the brexit related ones ..will we pay 12 billion a year to something we have left. which will play in to ukips hands and also the bloated foreign aid mess versus the council tax rises at home for social care for the elderly. i dont think the tories will continue to be so popular as they waste money.
all could help UKIP get to 20 per cent plus by the autumn. maybe they can get second place and replace labour.
They'll have to get through FPTP first if they wanna replace Labour.
Soppyfan is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 19:53
smudges dad
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Fort William
Posts: 22,269
Finally the details are published with the breakdown into demographics / regions etc.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...ndofYear_W.pdf

Scotland
SNP 51%
Con 25
Lab 12
LD 6
UKIP 4
SCP 3

Looks dodgy for Nutall in the north
Lab 34%
Con 33
UKIP 16
LD 12
Green 2
smudges dad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 20:45
Annsyre
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,113
Finally the details are published with the breakdown into demographics / regions etc.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...ndofYear_W.pdf

Scotland
SNP 51%
Con 25
Lab 12
LD 6
UKIP 4
SCP 3

Looks dodgy for Nutall in the north
Lab 34%
Con 33
UKIP 16
LD 12
Green 2
Nutall is going to target the North and he should do well there among Labour voters who voted leave.
Annsyre is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 20:49
SULLA
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Black Country lad in Yorkshire
Posts: 118,038
Any idea of the dates the polling was done? I'm just curious if this is before the Corbyn relaunch began with his challenging UKIP; if it's the effects of that challenge - or if it's just where we should set the bar for the coming months' Ho Ho Hos
When was this Corbyn relaunch ??????
SULLA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 21:42
platelet
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: GL51 0EX
Posts: 14,090
When was this Corbyn relaunch ??????
They have quite radical plans for him. Apparently he will appear on television rather than just relying on twitter. But the main thing is to push his anti-establishment anti-career politician man of the Islington people credentials and to explain to those Labour voters that have deserted to UKIP why they are too stupid to understand FoM is good for them

I believe it's supposed to have started with his New Year's speech. talking about how he's spent 40 years as part of the establishment

They've been planning it since mid December (though it was so secret at that point Tom Watson wasn't aware of it)
platelet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2017, 22:02
Annsyre
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,113
They have quite radical plans for him. Apparently he will appear on television rather than just relying on twitter. But the main thing is to push his anti-establishment anti-career politician man of the Islington people credentials and to explain to those Labour voters that have deserted to UKIP why they are too stupid to understand FoM is good for them

I believe it's supposed to have started with his New Year's speech. talking about how he's spent 40 years as part of the establishment

They've been planning it since mid December (though it was so secret at that point Tom Watson wasn't aware of it)
He occasionally appears on TV preaching to the converted but I doubt if he will ever appear on Daily Politics.

Helped by the revenue brought in by party members, who now number about 600,000, Corbyn has been bolstering his support team, including hiring David Prescott – son of the former deputy prime minister – to write speeches.
Annsyre is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 20:08.