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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Annsyre
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by Soppyfan:
“Tories falling a little as well though with UKIP still third despite being a shambles right now, but could be an outliner until we see others polling more or less the same numbers.”

The Copeland result will shed a little more light.
smudges dad
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)”

Only 89% - no link available yet, so assume SNP~6%, Greens 4% and PC 1%. It's rare that the top 4 drop below 90%
MartinP
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)”

I think this is Labour's lowest rating since June 1983 when they were on 23%
smudges dad
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“I think this is Labour's lowest rating since June 1983 when they were on 23%”

Last I heard was they were down to 12% in Scotland. Maybe they'll get single figures there in the council elections.
MartinP
02-01-2017
A far way from 1995 when a Gallup poll gave the following figures

Conservatives 18.5%
Labour 62%
Lib Dems 14%

Labour lead of 43.5 points
platelet
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)”

Any idea of the dates the polling was done? I'm just curious if this is before the Corbyn relaunch began with his challenging UKIP; if it's the effects of that challenge - or if it's just where we should set the bar for the coming months' Ho Ho Hos
k0213818
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)”

So based on recent poll accuracy it's a Labour Landslide in 2020.
platelet
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by k0213818:
“So based on recent poll accuracy it's a Labour Landslide in 2020.”

Nope based on recent polling accuracy the Labour vote is inflated and when the shy Tories are added the land will slide right over Labour's coffin
MartinP
02-01-2017
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Last I heard was they were down to 12% in Scotland. Maybe they'll get single figures there in the council elections.”

I was wrong, Populus had Labour on 21% in 2009. So maybe there is a way back for Corbyn....
mossy2103
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by platelet:
“Any idea of the dates the polling was done? I'm just curious if this is before the Corbyn relaunch began with his challenging UKIP; if it's the effects of that challenge - or if it's just where we should set the bar for the coming months' Ho Ho Hos ”

Looks like it was 18th/19th December

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...773696?lang=en
mossy2103
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by MartinP:
“I was wrong, Populus had Labour on 21% in 2009. So maybe there is a way back for Corbyn....”

Not according to the Fabian Society as reported in the Guardian, They suggest that Labour could get 20% of the vote and fewer than 200 seats, possibly failing to around 140.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...fabian-society
Annsyre
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“Not according to the Fabian Society as reported in the Guardian, They suggest that Labour could get 20% of the vote and fewer than 200 seats, possibly failing to around 140.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...fabian-society”

Quite a stark analysis of Labour's position.

A spokeswoman for Corbyn said: “Rebuilding Labour support after its fragmentation at the 2015 election was always going to be a challenge. But Labour under Jeremy Corbyn will be taking its case to every part of Britain in the coming months with a radical policy platform, offering the only genuine alternative to a failed parliament political establishment and the fake anti-elitists of the hard right.”

Wonder which spokeswoman that could be.
Jakobjoe
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“New you gov poll out today in the Times. 15 point Tory lead with Labour on only 24%

https://twitter.com/britainelects

CON: 39% (-3)
LAB: 24% (-1)
UKIP: 14% (+2)
LIB DEM: 12% (+1)”

lol..labour are sinking. how low can they go.
i think the issues in the coming year will be the brexit related ones ..will we pay 12 billion a year to something we have left. which will play in to ukips hands and also the bloated foreign aid mess versus the council tax rises at home for social care for the elderly. i dont think the tories will continue to be so popular as they waste money.
all could help UKIP get to 20 per cent plus by the autumn. maybe they can get second place and replace labour.
Tassium
03-01-2017
It'll be interesting if Labour manage to pick up support when support for Theresa May/Tories thins out.

I doubt it. Jeremy Corbyn just doesn't have the charisma.
Annsyre
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by Tassium:
“It'll be interesting if Labour manage to pick up support when support for Theresa May/Tories thins out.

I doubt it. Jeremy Corbyn just doesn't have the charisma.”

May is going to build homes - her popularity wont thin out.
Tassium
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“May is going to build homes - her popularity wont thin out.”

She never actually delivers on her promises though.
Annsyre
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by Tassium:
“She never actually delivers on her promises though.”

Well according to all of today's news outlets this one will be kept. Houses will be built all over the country.
platelet
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by mossy2103:
“Looks like it was 18th/19th December

https://twitter.com/britainelects/st...773696?lang=en”

Cool so this is the benchmark by which Corbyn 2.0 can be judged. I look forward to a massive jump in the coming weeks
James_Orton
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by Annsyre:
“Well according to all of today's news outlets this one will be kept. Houses will be built all over the country.”

Houses are always built. The question is who wins the PR battle on building them and who loses for stalling them.
Soppyfan
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by Jakobjoe:
“lol..labour are sinking. how low can they go.
i think the issues in the coming year will be the brexit related ones ..will we pay 12 billion a year to something we have left. which will play in to ukips hands and also the bloated foreign aid mess versus the council tax rises at home for social care for the elderly. i dont think the tories will continue to be so popular as they waste money.
all could help UKIP get to 20 per cent plus by the autumn. maybe they can get second place and replace labour. ”

They'll have to get through FPTP first if they wanna replace Labour.
smudges dad
03-01-2017
Finally the details are published with the breakdown into demographics / regions etc.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...ndofYear_W.pdf

Scotland
SNP 51%
Con 25
Lab 12
LD 6
UKIP 4
SCP 3

Looks dodgy for Nutall in the north
Lab 34%
Con 33
UKIP 16
LD 12
Green 2
Annsyre
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by smudges dad:
“Finally the details are published with the breakdown into demographics / regions etc.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...ndofYear_W.pdf

Scotland
SNP 51%
Con 25
Lab 12
LD 6
UKIP 4
SCP 3

Looks dodgy for Nutall in the north
Lab 34%
Con 33
UKIP 16
LD 12
Green 2”

Nutall is going to target the North and he should do well there among Labour voters who voted leave.
SULLA
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by platelet:
“Any idea of the dates the polling was done? I'm just curious if this is before the Corbyn relaunch began with his challenging UKIP; if it's the effects of that challenge - or if it's just where we should set the bar for the coming months' Ho Ho Hos ”

When was this Corbyn relaunch ??????
platelet
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by SULLA:
“When was this Corbyn relaunch ??????”

They have quite radical plans for him. Apparently he will appear on television rather than just relying on twitter. But the main thing is to push his anti-establishment anti-career politician man of the Islington people credentials and to explain to those Labour voters that have deserted to UKIP why they are too stupid to understand FoM is good for them

I believe it's supposed to have started with his New Year's speech. talking about how he's spent 40 years as part of the establishment

They've been planning it since mid December (though it was so secret at that point Tom Watson wasn't aware of it)
Annsyre
03-01-2017
Originally Posted by platelet:
“They have quite radical plans for him. Apparently he will appear on television rather than just relying on twitter. But the main thing is to push his anti-establishment anti-career politician man of the Islington people credentials and to explain to those Labour voters that have deserted to UKIP why they are too stupid to understand FoM is good for them

I believe it's supposed to have started with his New Year's speech. talking about how he's spent 40 years as part of the establishment

They've been planning it since mid December (though it was so secret at that point Tom Watson wasn't aware of it)”

He occasionally appears on TV preaching to the converted but I doubt if he will ever appear on Daily Politics.

Helped by the revenue brought in by party members, who now number about 600,000, Corbyn has been bolstering his support team, including hiring David Prescott – son of the former deputy prime minister – to write speeches.
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