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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 03-01-2017, 22:53
BanglaRoad
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Nutall is going to target the North and he should do well there among Labour voters who voted leave.
Once voters realise that Nuttall is a hard line Tory his popularity won't last long.
He managed only 11% in his home town at the last GE so the task is huge.
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Old 04-01-2017, 07:40
mossy2103
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Once voters realise that Nuttall is a hard line Tory his popularity won't last long.
He managed only 11% in his home town at the last GE so the task is huge.
Probably not as huge as Corbyn's task to hang on to many of those erstwhile Labour voters who voted to leave.
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:15
Annsyre
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Once voters realise that Nuttall is a hard line Tory his popularity won't last long.
He managed only 11% in his home town at the last GE so the task is huge.
But Labour was already losing votes in the North to UKIP before Nutall became leader. What was the reason for that?
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:25
BanglaRoad
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But Labour was already losing votes in the North to UKIP before Nutall became leader. What was the reason for that?

Probably brexit but that's coming now
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:45
Annsyre
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Probably brexit but that's coming now
No not Brexit, many Labour voters in the North voted to Leave and they are turning to UKIP ad away from Labour because Corbyn was pro-Remain.
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:35
thirstyelephant
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There is no signs to suggest a UKIP surge. It seems to be a myth that Labour voters have gone to them. Half those who voted to leave don't vote in general elections and probably never will. If UKIP were really on the rise why haven't they got more than a couple of MPs? they just cant break through unless its via deflections.

I think Labour should just have the guts to come out and say they are running on a 2020 platform to remain in the EU. At least that makes them have a leading policy.

There was 15 million people who voted to Remain and that figure could well be higher now in hindsight. Those voters will have to go somewhere. Which is why the Lib Dems are far more likely to now hoover up the Labour vote in the North than UKIP are.
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:44
Annsyre
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There is no signs to suggest a UKIP surge. It seems to be a myth that Labour voters have gone to them. Half those who voted to leave don't vote in general elections and probably never will. If UKIP were really on the rise why haven't they got more than a couple of MPs? they just cant break through unless its via deflections.

I think Labour should just have the guts to come out and say they are running on a 2020 platform to remain in the EU. At least that makes them have a leading policy.

There was 15 million people who voted to Remain and that figure could well be higher now in hindsight. Those voters will have to go somewhere. Which is why the Lib Dems are far more likely to now hoover up the Labour vote in the North than UKIP are.
What after May has triggered Article 50? That makes no sense at all. Once Article 50 is triggered we are on our way out.
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:46
thirstyelephant
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What after May has triggered Article 40? That makes no sense at all. Once Article 40 is triggered we are on our way out.
I don't believe for one second it will be triggered.
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:49
Annsyre
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I don't believe for one second it will be triggered.
OK
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:50
thirstyelephant
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Bring back my post in June

If you don't I will
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:53
Paris Le Roc
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There is a psychic who has predicted a lot of politic and world events very accurately and he even predicted Trumps win. He seems to believe May is going to find herself in an impossible position come March which could trigger an early election.

Not that I really believe in these things but his success rate is quite something.
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Old 04-01-2017, 11:56
RRL
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Bring back my post in June

If you don't I will
Well it won't do you any good as it is not article 40 (that relates to foreign and security policy) it is article 50


What was that someone said about not listening to experts
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Old 04-01-2017, 12:12
Annsyre
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Bring back my post in June

If you don't I will
OK
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Old 04-01-2017, 12:13
Annsyre
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Well it won't do you any good as it is not article 40 (that relates to foreign and security policy) it is article 50


What was that someone said about not listening to experts
I have corrected my post.
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Old 04-01-2017, 12:29
smudges dad
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Looks dodgy for Nutall in the north
Lab 34%
Con 33
UKIP 16
LD 12
Green 2
Nutall is going to target the North and he should do well there among Labour voters who voted leave.
One thing I respect UKIP supporters for is their unbounded optimism in the face of overwhelming evidence.
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Old 04-01-2017, 12:38
BanglaRoad
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No not Brexit, many Labour voters in the North voted to Leave and they are turning to UKIP ad away from Labour because Corbyn was pro-Remain.
What are you basing this on?
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Old 04-01-2017, 12:42
Annsyre
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One thing I respect UKIP supporters for is their unbounded optimism in the face of overwhelming evidence.
I don't know any UKIP supporters so I'll take your word for it.
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Old 04-01-2017, 12:43
Annsyre
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What are you basing this on?
The interviews I have seen with people saying that they were Labour but are turning to UKIP, the fact that Corbyn is pro-EU and Labour's diminishing poll ratings and the loss of their deposit in a recent by election and Cridas's review of Labour's fortunes.

Labour’s Future, Why Labour Lost in 2015 and How it Can Win Again, to be published this week, says the party is losing socially conservative voters to Ukip in droves, while appealing most to metropolitan liberals who tend to be better off and to have been to university.

Labour’s major challenge, the report argues, is to find a way to rebuild a coalition of support. It needs to “stop patronising socially conservative Ukip voters and recognise the ways in which Ukip appeals to former Labour voters”, the report says, adding: “Labour is becoming a toxic brand. It is perceived by voters as a party that supports an ‘open door’ approach to immigration, lacks credibility on the economy, and is a ‘soft touch’ on welfare spending.”


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...re-immigration
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Old 04-01-2017, 12:59
BanglaRoad
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The interviews I have seen with people saying that they were Labour but are turning to UKIP, the fact that Corbyn is pro-EU and Labour's diminishing poll ratings and the loss of their deposit in a recent by election and Cridas's review of Labour's fortunes.

Labour’s Future, Why Labour Lost in 2015 and How it Can Win Again, to be published this week, says the party is losing socially conservative voters to Ukip in droves, while appealing most to metropolitan liberals who tend to be better off and to have been to university.

Labour’s major challenge, the report argues, is to find a way to rebuild a coalition of support. It needs to “stop patronising socially conservative Ukip voters and recognise the ways in which Ukip appeals to former Labour voters”, the report says, adding: “Labour is becoming a toxic brand. It is perceived by voters as a party that supports an ‘open door’ approach to immigration, lacks credibility on the economy, and is a ‘soft touch’ on welfare spending.”


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...re-immigration
So not a lot
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Old 04-01-2017, 13:21
blueisthecolour
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The interviews I have seen with people saying that they were Labour but are turning to UKIP, the fact that Corbyn is pro-EU and Labour's diminishing poll ratings and the loss of their deposit in a recent by election and Cridas's review of Labour's fortunes.

Labour’s Future, Why Labour Lost in 2015 and How it Can Win Again, to be published this week, says the party is losing socially conservative voters to Ukip in droves, while appealing most to metropolitan liberals who tend to be better off and to have been to university.

Labour’s major challenge, the report argues, is to find a way to rebuild a coalition of support. It needs to “stop patronising socially conservative Ukip voters and recognise[/b] [b]the ways in which Ukip appeals to former Labour voters”, the report says, adding: “Labour is becoming a toxic brand. It is perceived by voters as a party that supports an ‘open door’ approach to immigration, lacks credibility on the economy, and is a ‘soft touch’ on welfare spending.”


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...re-immigration
I thought Corbyn was anti-EU? There was a leadership election about it and everything

I think you mean he's pro-freedom of movement - which is the crux of the problem for Labour in the North.
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Old 04-01-2017, 13:56
Annsyre
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Enough for Labour to have lost a deposit and come fourth. That's quite a lot.

Do you honestly believe that Labour's position in the North is strong?
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Old 04-01-2017, 13:57
Annsyre
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I thought Corbyn was anti-EU? There was a leadership election about it and everything

I think you mean he's pro-freedom of movement - which is the crux of the problem for Labour in the North.
Freedom of movement and remain are in the same category.
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Unread Today, 15:27
smudges dad
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Another yougov with fieldwork 3-4th Jan
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...Trackers_W.pdf
UK as a whole
Con 39%
Lab 26
LD 10
UKIP 14
Green 4
SNP / PC 6

Scotland
Con 20
Lab 16
LD 8
UKIP 2
Green 3
SNP 51

North
Con 32%
Lab 38
LD 8
UKIP 17 (Nutall doing really well then)
Green 4

Is the government doing a good job on Brexit?
Doing Well 20%
Doing badly 57%
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Unread Today, 16:17
WhoMad
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Another yougov with fieldwork 3-4th Jan
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...Trackers_W.pdf

North
Con 32%
Lab 38
LD 8
UKIP 17 (Nutall doing really well then)
Green 4
Looking back through some recent yougov polls, that's a high score for UKIP in the north.

Some other Questions

Which of the following do you think would make
the best Prime Minister?

May 47% (+3)
Corbyn 14% (-2)
Not Sure 39% (-2)

Only 49% of current Labour voters said Corbyn and just 29% of GE2015 Labour voters.

Best for Issues (Parties not listed fall below 9%)

NHS
CON 20%
LAB 28%

Immigration
CON 22%
LAB 13%
UKIP 21%

Economy
CON 33%
LAB 15%

BREXIT
CON 24%
LAB 9%
UKIP 15%

Do you think Britain was right or
wrong to vote to leave the EU?

Right 47% (+3)
Wrong 43% (-1)

Do you think Britain will be economically better
or worse off after we leave?

Better 29% (+2)
Worse 37 (-4)
No Diff 19% (=)
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Unread Today, 16:45
Annsyre
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Another yougov with fieldwork 3-4th Jan
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...Trackers_W.pdf
UK as a whole
Con 39%
Lab 26
LD 10
UKIP 14
Green 4
SNP / PC 6

Scotland
Con 20
Lab 16
LD 8
UKIP 2
Green 3
SNP 51

North
Con 32%
Lab 38
LD 8
UKIP 17 (Nutall doing really well then)
Green 4

Is the government doing a good job on Brexit?
Doing Well 20%
Doing badly 57%
Copeland voted leave by a majority so in Copeland Labour will take a hit from UKIP.
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