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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 18-04-2015, 21:42
seansnotmyname@
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I've followed this thread for about a month now and nothing has barely changed.

Can't see it changing much up to the day either.
Oh this thread changes constantly when one sides polls well, the supporters say it means something make a big political point about why it happened, and the other side says it's probably just polling error, and vice verse if the poll goes the other way.

TBH, I'm in the too close to call camp now, and just can't take any on-off poll seriously.
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Old 18-04-2015, 21:51
oathy
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Apparently its being reported EM's personal Ratings have Risen 21% in a month (you gov)
might explain why the non stop personal attacks on him haven't really worked like Crosby wanted. The last debate doesn't seem to have damaged him so it was a good call.

totally not surprised the Greens haven't moved that was one debate too many IMHO.
sturgeon is on fire, wood and Bennett should have refused and maybe allowed Clegg there ?
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Old 18-04-2015, 21:53
THOMO
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Oh this thread changes constantly when one sides polls well, the supporters say it means something make a big political point about why it happened, and the other side says it's probably just polling error, and vice verse if the poll goes the other way.

TBH, I'm in the too close to call camp now, and just can't take any on-off poll seriously.
I'm the same as well. What will be exciting on election night, is if the excit poll at 10.00pm shows both Labour and the Conservative on the same % points and all the smaller party's doing very well and that would make a very exciting election nights programme for the political enthusiast who is neutral and doesn't support one party or anther. For the supporters of different political party's it will then be a very nervous night for everyone.
Ian.
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Old 18-04-2015, 22:00
Boyard
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Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824
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Old 18-04-2015, 22:01
Jason C
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Opinium/Observer has been pretty consistently poor for Labour.
Here's the average of the last five polls conducted by Opinium (Mar 19 - Apr 17):

Con 35
Lab 33
Lib Dem 7
UKIP 13
Green 6
Others 5

And for comparison, here are the same averages for the other major polling companies:

YouGov (Apr 14 - 18)
Con 34
Lab 34
Lib Dem 9
UKIP 12
Green 5
Others 6

Survation (Mar 21 - Apr 17)
Con 32
Lab 34
Lib Dem 9
UKIP 17
Green 3
Others 6

Populus (Apr 1 - 16)
Con 32
Lab 33
Lib Dem 9
UKIP 15
Green 5
Others 6

Panelbase (Mar 26 - Apr 16; only four polls)
Con 33
Lab 35
Lib Dem 7
UKIP 16
Green 5
Others 5

Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is.
Tactical voting works both ways.
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Old 18-04-2015, 22:02
seansnotmyname@
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I'm the same as well. What will be exciting on election night, is if the excit poll at 10.00pm shows both Labour and the Conservative on the same % points and all the smaller party's doing very well and that would make a very exciting election nights programme for the political enthusiast who is neutral and doesn't support one party or anther. For the supporters of different political party's it will then be a very nervous night for everyone.
Ian.
Oh I support one party alright, but I just don't get over-excited and say one, or a couple of poll, results mean that so-and-so is definitely happening, or this and that was a disaster for someone.

You are right though, it's fascinating, so many unknown factors in this, UKIP, SNP. possible Lib dem collapse, it's really still a two-horse race, but with the other parties giving big handicaps to the main two, what will be decisive?
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Old 18-04-2015, 22:11
Chirpy_Chicken
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Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824
Parties should be more open about tactical voting
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Old 18-04-2015, 22:12
Hildaonpluto
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Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824
Party leaders are normally very reluctant to publicly call for tactical voting. Interesting....
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Old 18-04-2015, 22:31
swingaleg
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Party leaders are normally very reluctant to publicly call for tactical voting. Interesting....
I suppose it doesn't go down very well with their candidates and party workers.....

why should they bother if the leader is advising the electors not to vote for them.....
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:00
Sky_Guy
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I have concluded this will be the result.

A LAB/SNP coalition or deal., the Tories are out.

Cameron resigns, May wins the leadership contest.

2020, the Conservatives win with a small majority.
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:09
FusionFury
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Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824
He's a beaten man and he knows it (cameron), the last days of his reign me thinks..
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:13
MattN
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He's a beaten man and he knows it (cameron), the last days of his reign me thinks..
Have you seen the guardian poll?
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:23
MTUK1
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He's a beaten man and he knows it (cameron), the last days of his reign me thinks..
Yawn! So Labour has it it the bag? Nonsense. You have no way of knowing this.
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:25
MTUK1
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....so it's still a stalemate, then!
Unless you're a Labour party supporter on here, most of whom think they've won the election already.
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:29
pork.pie
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Unless you're a Labour party supporter on here, some of whom think they've won the election already.
I've corrected your ridiculous post to make it more accurate. You're welcome.
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:33
MTUK1
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I've corrected your ridiculous post to make it more accurate. You're welcome.
The majority. When Labour have a 1 point lead in the polls, people get excited. Even though anything within the 3% figure is a dead heat. As well as a 21% increase in his personal ratings. Which are still in the minus figures.
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Old 18-04-2015, 23:58
Rich Tea.
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Michael Portillo thinks Labour are ahead and that the polls are not genuinely level between the two parties.

His reasoning is that the Tories are averaging about 33% and Labour 35% (his assertion) which means that compared to the actual vote share at the last election Labour are up about 6% and the Conservatives are down 3% which looks decisive in Labour's favour.

Certainly a point worth picking over I think.
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Old 19-04-2015, 00:18
marke09
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IM sure the Conservatives have their fingers crossed that when Aprils pay packets arrive this week or next they will get a bit of a boost with millions having a bit extra in their pay owing to tax rates going up to 10 600
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Old 19-04-2015, 00:24
OLD HIPPY GUY
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Unless you're a Labour party supporter on here, most of whom think they've won the election already.

I know I sound like a stuck record, but then so do you, evidence that "most Labour supporters think they've won the election"?
Just because you keep saying it it's not getting any truer.
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Old 19-04-2015, 01:18
MTUK1
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I know I sound like a stuck record, but then so do you, evidence that "most Labour supporters think they've won the election"?
Just because you keep saying it it's not getting any truer.
Just read the posts. Anytime there is a .01111 percent increase in the polls it's a Cameron's lost it Ed's winning it posts.
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Old 19-04-2015, 01:27
MARTYM8
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Come May 8 i confidently predict neither Ed Milliband or David Cameron will be running the country - Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon will be in charge. That seems to be the only conclusion from the polls.
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Old 19-04-2015, 01:39
Inspiration
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Michael Portillo thinks Labour are ahead and that the polls are not genuinely level between the two parties.

His reasoning is that the Tories are averaging about 33% and Labour 35% (his assertion) which means that compared to the actual vote share at the last election Labour are up about 6% and the Conservatives are down 3% which looks decisive in Labour's favour.

Certainly a point worth picking over I think.
Yeah I think that's the theory that CON need to be quite far ahead of Labour to even begin to start thinking they'll break free into a majority and they've just not getting there. The only thing that will save them is some sort of UKIP collapse on polling day when voters stop flirting with the idea of voting UKIP and flock back to CON but i'm not sure that's going to happen.

I'm still not even sure the Tories want to win this one.
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Old 19-04-2015, 01:53
OLD HIPPY GUY
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Just read the posts. Anytime there is a .01111 percent increase in the polls it's a Cameron's lost it Ed's winning it posts.
I have, and that is why I am asking you to (once again) back up your often repeated claim that basically says every time one poll shows a 1% Labour lead "most Labour supporters think the election is won" if it is indeed "most Labour supporters" then you should have no problem backing up this claim with some evidence,
As I said, I have looked, and what I see is one or two Labour OR Tory supporters who sometimes get a bit carried away by a small poll lead, but the overwhelming majority of both Tory and Labour supporters seem to be in more agreement in this thread than any other, and that is that most seem to think it is far too close to call.
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Old 19-04-2015, 02:55
jjne
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Come May 8 i confidently predict neither Ed Milliband or David Cameron will be running the country - Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon will be in charge. That seems to be the only conclusion from the polls.
Indeed. Sturgeon is showing us how to really run an insurgent party -- forget the bunch of amateurs south of the border.
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Old 19-04-2015, 09:00
MattXfactor
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I have, and that is why I am asking you to (once again) back up your often repeated claim that basically says every time one poll shows a 1% Labour lead "most Labour supporters think the election is won" if it is indeed "most Labour supporters" then you should have no problem backing up this claim with some evidence,
As I said, I have looked, and what I see is one or two Labour OR Tory supporters who sometimes get a bit carried away by a small poll lead, but the overwhelming majority of both Tory and Labour supporters seem to be in more agreement in this thread than any other, and that is that most seem to think it is far too close to call.
I agree most people seem to of accepted this now.
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