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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#76 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: exeter
Posts: 14,620
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Quote:
I've followed this thread for about a month now and nothing has barely changed.
Can't see it changing much up to the day either. TBH, I'm in the too close to call camp now, and just can't take any on-off poll seriously. |
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#77 |
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Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 22,156
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Apparently its being reported EM's personal Ratings have Risen 21% in a month (you gov)
might explain why the non stop personal attacks on him haven't really worked like Crosby wanted. The last debate doesn't seem to have damaged him so it was a good call. totally not surprised the Greens haven't moved that was one debate too many IMHO. sturgeon is on fire, wood and Bennett should have refused and maybe allowed Clegg there ? |
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#78 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Gateshead, Tyne and Wear.
Posts: 4,621
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Quote:
Oh this thread changes constantly when one sides polls well, the supporters say it means something make a big political point about why it happened, and the other side says it's probably just polling error, and vice verse if the poll goes the other way.
TBH, I'm in the too close to call camp now, and just can't take any on-off poll seriously. Ian. |
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#79 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.
![]() https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824 |
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#80 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
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Quote:
Opinium/Observer has been pretty consistently poor for Labour.
Con 35 Lab 33 Lib Dem 7 UKIP 13 Green 6 Others 5 And for comparison, here are the same averages for the other major polling companies: YouGov (Apr 14 - 18) Con 34 Lab 34 Lib Dem 9 UKIP 12 Green 5 Others 6 Survation (Mar 21 - Apr 17) Con 32 Lab 34 Lib Dem 9 UKIP 17 Green 3 Others 6 Populus (Apr 1 - 16) Con 32 Lab 33 Lib Dem 9 UKIP 15 Green 5 Others 6 Panelbase (Mar 26 - Apr 16; only four polls) Con 33 Lab 35 Lib Dem 7 UKIP 16 Green 5 Others 5 Quote:
Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is.
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#81 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: exeter
Posts: 14,620
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Quote:
I'm the same as well. What will be exciting on election night, is if the excit poll at 10.00pm shows both Labour and the Conservative on the same % points and all the smaller party's doing very well and that would make a very exciting election nights programme for the political enthusiast who is neutral and doesn't support one party or anther. For the supporters of different political party's it will then be a very nervous night for everyone.
Ian. You are right though, it's fascinating, so many unknown factors in this, UKIP, SNP. possible Lib dem collapse, it's really still a two-horse race, but with the other parties giving big handicaps to the main two, what will be decisive? |
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#82 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Quote:
Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.
![]() https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824 |
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#83 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,724
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Quote:
Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.
![]() https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824 |
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#84 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 76,804
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Quote:
Party leaders are normally very reluctant to publicly call for tactical voting. Interesting....
why should they bother if the leader is advising the electors not to vote for them..... |
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#85 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: R.I.P BOWIE
Posts: 6,761
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I have concluded this will be the result.
A LAB/SNP coalition or deal., the Tories are out. Cameron resigns, May wins the leadership contest. 2020, the Conservatives win with a small majority. |
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#86 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,875
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Quote:
Times front page: "Cameron calls for tactical voting as Labour pull ahead" lol, so desperate he is. They're also planning on wheeling out Boris next week because they think Cameron is boring.
![]() https://twitter.com/suttonnick/statu...26595016269824 |
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#87 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Quote:
He's a beaten man and he knows it (cameron), the last days of his reign me thinks..
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#88 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Quote:
He's a beaten man and he knows it (cameron), the last days of his reign me thinks..
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#89 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Quote:
....so it's still a stalemate, then!
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#90 |
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: On top of the sherry trifle.
Posts: 10,106
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Quote:
Unless you're a Labour party supporter on here, some of whom think they've won the election already.
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#91 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Quote:
I've corrected your ridiculous post to make it more accurate. You're welcome.
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#92 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,345
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Michael Portillo thinks Labour are ahead and that the polls are not genuinely level between the two parties.
His reasoning is that the Tories are averaging about 33% and Labour 35% (his assertion) which means that compared to the actual vote share at the last election Labour are up about 6% and the Conservatives are down 3% which looks decisive in Labour's favour. Certainly a point worth picking over I think. |
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#93 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,614
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IM sure the Conservatives have their fingers crossed that when Aprils pay packets arrive this week or next they will get a bit of a boost with millions having a bit extra in their pay owing to tax rates going up to 10 600
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#94 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: I survived the killzone!
Posts: 18,241
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Quote:
Unless you're a Labour party supporter on here, most of whom think they've won the election already.
I know I sound like a stuck record, but then so do you, evidence that "most Labour supporters think they've won the election"? Just because you keep saying it it's not getting any truer. |
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#95 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: London, United Kingdom
Posts: 19,783
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Quote:
I know I sound like a stuck record, but then so do you, evidence that "most Labour supporters think they've won the election"?
Just because you keep saying it it's not getting any truer. |
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#96 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,276
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Come May 8 i confidently predict neither Ed Milliband or David Cameron will be running the country - Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon will be in charge. That seems to be the only conclusion from the polls.
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#97 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 53,385
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Quote:
Michael Portillo thinks Labour are ahead and that the polls are not genuinely level between the two parties.
His reasoning is that the Tories are averaging about 33% and Labour 35% (his assertion) which means that compared to the actual vote share at the last election Labour are up about 6% and the Conservatives are down 3% which looks decisive in Labour's favour. Certainly a point worth picking over I think. I'm still not even sure the Tories want to win this one. |
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#98 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: I survived the killzone!
Posts: 18,241
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Quote:
Just read the posts. Anytime there is a .01111 percent increase in the polls it's a Cameron's lost it Ed's winning it posts.
As I said, I have looked, and what I see is one or two Labour OR Tory supporters who sometimes get a bit carried away by a small poll lead, but the overwhelming majority of both Tory and Labour supporters seem to be in more agreement in this thread than any other, and that is that most seem to think it is far too close to call. |
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#99 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
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Quote:
Come May 8 i confidently predict neither Ed Milliband or David Cameron will be running the country - Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon will be in charge. That seems to be the only conclusion from the polls.
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#100 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
I have, and that is why I am asking you to (once again) back up your often repeated claim that basically says every time one poll shows a 1% Labour lead "most Labour supporters think the election is won" if it is indeed "most Labour supporters" then you should have no problem backing up this claim with some evidence,
As I said, I have looked, and what I see is one or two Labour OR Tory supporters who sometimes get a bit carried away by a small poll lead, but the overwhelming majority of both Tory and Labour supporters seem to be in more agreement in this thread than any other, and that is that most seem to think it is far too close to call. |
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