Ha! fantastic. One Tory seat I will be happy to see them win. Reckless really was reckless

http://news.sky.com/story/1472232/to...nt-in-new-poll

Desperate or just incredibly lazy journalism ?

None of the legitimate polling organisations is mentioning this as a factor because it basically isn't one and it's going to have zero effect.


That's precisely why The Sun has been out to get Miliband with character assassination. It's crude and made him look like a plucky underdog and the strategy should have been more nuanced.

One of Murdoch's other goals is to gain a majority stakeholding in Sky TV (currently at 39%) and preferably control of 100% of all shares and Murdoch knows that he's got zero chance of that if Miliband becomes PM.

What Lord Ashcroft seems to have found is that the Conservatives will not lose as many seats based on marginal constituency polling as the national polls imply. They will however not take as many Lib Dem seats as they hope to and neither will Labour. The Lib Dem seats are holding up better than expected.

NEW Survation/MoS (chg vs 21/3): CON 33 (+3) LAB 30 (-4) UKIP 18 (+1) LD 9 (-1) SNP 5 (+1) GRE 4 (+1) OTH 1 (-1)

I wish this was highlighted by more people as it's really a semi affront to a healthy democracy.

Latest Survation poll (24 - 25 Apr):
CON - 33% (-)
LAB - 30% (+1)
UKIP - 18% (-)
LDEM - 9% (-1)
GRN - 4% (-)

This is getting ridiculous..

I think its fair to say these polls will stay like this right up until polling day.

Unless something major occurs that is.

I'm more excited as to the exit poll!

No change then.

The bottom figures show the changes from the last Survation poll conducted two days ago, and the top figures show the changes from the last Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday conducted five weeks ago which are frankly misleading.

Thanks. I realised that and changed my post!

I am increasingly thinking that yougov are the most accurate. The others are all heavily influenced paid by parties who have paid for the poll.

Depends on whether they're using the same methodology in both sets of polls as to which is the misleading one.

It's all MoE though so nothing to get too worried about.

Averaging the polls gives a good indication, but Yougov and ICM are two good polling firms.

You have to remember that most firms raw data is similar, it is the weighting afterwards that counts.

How many exit polls are there?

There was only one last time, due to cost.

Whether this changes this time is open to debate... you can't really run an exit poll online (well you can but its accuracy would be potentially questionable).

ITV are even less committed to their PSB requirements in 2015 than they were in 2010, so I can't see them running their own this time... maybe Sky will, I'm not sure.

Just one exit poll, jointly commissioned by BBC/ITV/Sky I believe.

Neither - unless I'm missing something.

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/20...es-snp-to.html

"Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election (Panelbase) :

SNP 48% (+3)
Labour 27% (-2)
Conservatives 16% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 4% (n/c)
UKIP 3% (-1)
Greens 2% (n/c)"

@UKELECTIONS2015: Yougov (UK)

Which of the party leaders do you think is the most
capable leader?

Cameron 33%
Sturgeon 17%
Miliband 15%
Farage 7%
Clegg 4%

I find it amusing that they commission an exit poll, considering it is announced on election night at 10pm, and the result is usually known by the following morning. I mean, why bother....

It gives the pundits something to talk about for3 hours until the results start flooding in

I think your right, did they get it drastically wrong in 1992.

Yes miles out but usually its extremely accurate