I'd prefer they didn't do an exit poll as it would make things a lot more exciting watching the votes come in one by one - it would be a bit like Eurovision!

The Exit Poll was pretty much spot on in 2010, so it took a lot of drama out of election night.

I would actually prefer it if the wards within a constituency were announced as soon as they were counted similar to what they do in the US and Australia, you would know pretty early in the night what the result was going to be.

I think the Opinion Polls have sapped the interest out of this one. Unless something major happens in the next ten days it'll be a Labour/LibDem coalition with unofficial SNP support. Or something along those lines.

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2...ions-23-april/

"If the difference between those figures and the parties’ ratings in our latest poll of polls were to be replicated in each and every constituency, Labour would win 4 seats, the Liberal Democrats 1, the SNP 54, the Conservatives none, UKIP none, and the Greens none."

If Clegg holds his seat I doubt that would happen as he's said repeatedly they'd be no deal at all of any kind if it had any involvement from UKIP or the SNP.

Fabtastico.....as labour slide UKIP rise..note how Conservative an UKIP = 51 % majority support of the people. Wondering if UKIP can get their traditional late surge over 20 per cent and labour slide to maybe high twenties by polling day.

Let's not get carried away and leap to any premature conclusions. Survation consistently polls higher for UKIP than other pollsters.

That will be one of the great tests for the pollsters - measuring UKIP and the Greens scores. This is a new phenomenon that we didn't have in the old 3 party English system.

Are the Greens on 4 or 8 per cent - are UKIP on 10 or 18 per cent - we focus on the Labour and Tory numbers (which seem to hover on 32-34%) but the real determinant of who may win is what happens to the Greens and UKIP vote as its not far off 20% of the electorate

Seems clear what is happening in Scotland - but England and Wales is impossible to call at present.

a couple of weeks ago ukip were being written off as failing by the media. who wanted it to happen and tried to make it happen by writing about it but the ukip surge usually comes in the last week. i think green might start a slide like labour will. of course ukip havent to get too hopeful but its looking good percentage wise if not in seats

You do know that UKIP, despite being on a higher percentage than the LibDems will get far fewer seats than the LibDems don't you? Their input will be zero in Westminster as all voting for UKIP will do is weaken the Tory vote and strengthen the Labour one! I'm sure you realise that though, or do you believe they will get tons of MP's?

This election is make or break for UKIP. It's the one election where one major party has promised a referendum on EU membership and people are going to vote UKIP to ensure it doesn't happen! I find that a bit odd.

It seems to me that most people still haven't gotten the point that the individual party vote shares are less important than the spread of vote. Obviously if there's a big gap between the big two it will lead to the leader being the bigger party, however anything between 1-3% difference is impossible to predict without an individual seat breakdown. It might not matter too much if UKIP get 10% or 18% if it's predominately in seats that don't change hands. The same with the Green party - unless they are preventing Labour from taking their target seats it doesn't really matter if they get 1,000 votes or 2,000 in each seat.

What really matters is:

1. Whether the Tories open up a gap on Labour nationally. If they don't they will definitely lose seats and hence it will make it extremely difficult, regardless of what else happens, for them to form a long term government.

2. Whether the Lib Dem vote rebounds in their seats. The fewer seats the LDs have the less chance their is that Cameron will stay as PM.

3. Whether on the night Labour will be completely wiped out in Scotland or whether they will just hold on to 15+ seats. It will probably be the difference between ED MP and not.

i do realise this but its not ukip fault they wont get seats but the electoral system. the conservatives maybe will lose a few marginal seats to labour but they had a chance to make the voting system fairer and thought it was fine.

Another Kipper who thinks UKIP might exceed 6 million votes -- that 2 million who didn't vote for them in May 2014 are going to vote for them in a couple of weeks -- that ICM are underestimating their support by 100%.

I admire your optimism.

UKIP will be lucky to get 5 seats.

So, may I ask, and I respect that it's your decision, why would you want to vote for a party that believes in our country out of Europe, when in reality, we'll end up with a party who takes us further into Europe with no chance of a referendum ever again? This election is the once only offer of an EU referendum. If people really want a vote on Europe, voting UKIP will ensure it doesn't happen. Even if the Tories are elected in 2020, there won't be an EU referendum on offer because we will have moved on from that.

UKIP I predict, will become just a soapbox party again by 2020 because those who vote for it this year and get the opposite will be disappointed and will wonder why they bothered.

I do think it premature to predict anything, and that goes for you and the subject of you ire.

You may well be right - but even on their worst polling they will get three times as many votes as the SNP.

The SNP will basically decide our next government and dictate its direction - that looks pretty certain now - but a party which has got three times as many votes as them (if not more) will have little or no say.

Such are the vagaries of our electoral system - Labour barely exists in the south and south east and the Tories don't exist in most of our major metropolitan cities. Hardly healthy is it that you win based on how concentrated your support is in some places - allowing you to neglect maybe one third of the country or more as you really aren' interested in what they think.

Still it will be amusing to see how many seats the Tories will lose because of their decision to oppose AV - think of all those UKIP second preferences they could have got.

If all you want is a referendum and don't care about anything else (including whether we actually exit the EU) then sure, vote Conservative. However I would argue that if you do want to leave the EU then UKIP is a better long term bet. A Labour government that denies a referendum and doesn't even attempt a 'renegotiation' is much more likely to lead to EU exit than a Tory one that pretends to change our relationship and then does all it can to win a national vote.

Ire? Nah. I find it funny.

Just pointing out the task UKIP faces to prove their detractors wrong. I just wonder where these two million people were, this time last year.

Cameron has offered a referendum only if he gets an outright majority.

Completely untrue.

He said, on many occasions, that he will not be PM of any government that doesn't offer a referendum.

He might be in for a shock if the only coalition he can muster is with the DUP and UKIP...

I tried to point this out the other day but was met with claims the Lib Dems would want one and support the idea....

And that would rule out a coalition with the LDs... they're not going to agree to a referendum on the EU.

Maybe because many of us do not believe David Cameron and his cast iron promises.

Yes its a gamble but if we are ever to get an out vote you will need both UKIP and the Tories backing it - and that will never happen under Cameron. So better he is gone - and a more Eurosceptic candidate replaces him,

Who knows what the country may be ready for in 2020 (or sooner) - after five years of a Labour SNP Lib Dem Green Plaid coalition and as is looking likely more Eurozone chaos!

Yes - its a risk - but Cameron will never deliver.