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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#1101 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
If that were to be the result, no-one could realistically claim that the SNP don't have a mandate...
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#1102 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,411
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Quote:
wow, would that completely wipe Lab out possibly?
SNP 57 LAB 1 LD 1 That would be on a universal swing basis in Scotland of course I imagine. |
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#1103 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
According to the UK Polling Report Calculator that outcome in Scotland would produce:
SNP 57 LAB 1 LD 1 That would be on a universal swing basis in Scotland of course I imagine. |
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#1104 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 97,151
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Quote:
If that were to be the result, no-one could realistically claim that the SNP don't have a mandate...
I wont be sorry to see the back of Douglas Alexander. |
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#1105 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Scotland
Posts: 4,222
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Quote:
According to the UK Polling Report Calculator that outcome in Scotland would produce:
SNP 57 LAB 1 LD 1 That would be on a universal swing basis in Scotland of course I imagine. |
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#1106 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Mansfield
Posts: 27,530
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I see thms is back with his links to articles from pro-independence websites. I wonder if the SNP fail to meet expectations next week he'll make the same sudden and mysterious disappearance he made after the independence referendum!
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#1107 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 77,625
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Populas poll for The FT
Labour 36% Conservatives 33% Ukip 14% Lib Dem 8% Green 5% |
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#1108 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 24,521
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Is The TNS poll the same one that suggest 29% of Scots are undecided?
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#1109 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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Quote:
Populas poll for The FT
Labour 36% Conservatives 33% Ukip 14% Lib Dem 8% Green 5% |
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#1110 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Mansfield
Posts: 27,530
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Quote:
Is The TNS poll the same one that suggest 29% of Scots are undecided?
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#1111 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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I also think SNP support is way too high to be realistic. We were in this same position pre referendum and look what happened.
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#1112 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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Yeah I heard SNP support is so scattered it won't necessarily mean so many seats as people would think looking at the polls alone.
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#1113 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Mansfield
Posts: 27,530
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There's also the fact it's quite likely SNP supporters and activists have been signing up to pollsters in high numbers, which will also likely be skewing the results somewhat. You'd only really need a few thousand to do it and it would have quite a notable effect on the polls- especially if many of them claimed to be former Labour voters, which would skew the weighting even more in the SNP's favour. Maybe the samples the pollsters pick are random- but if they have an unrepresentatively high number of SNP supporters on their books, then it will be reflected in the polls.
While I do think there's been an icnrease in SNP supports and they'll make gains, I just don't think it will be on anything like the scale the polls are suggesting. I have friends in Scotland who have been campaigning and canvassing, and what they're hearing on the streets and doorsteps is often quite different to what the polls are suggesting. The Scottish results may well end up being another 1992 moment for the pollsters. |
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#1114 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
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Quote:
Its never healthy to have such a dominance by one party, no matter who it is, I hope the next scottish parliament elections in 2016 don't follow the same pattern.
We could very well have a situation where a party on 54% of the vote gaining 97% of representation. I defy anyone to say that's democratic. |
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#1115 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Stirling/Windsor/Overseas
Posts: 14,360
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Quote:
I also think SNP support is way too high to be realistic. We were in this same position pre referendum and look what happened.
This particular poll may be a little optimistic but is still within the realms of possibility. You have to be up here to really understand the mood and also just how many youngsters are getting involved. |
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#1116 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 24,521
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Quote:
It's yet another example demonstrating why FPTP is such a crock.
We could very well have a situation where a party on 54% of the vote gaining 97% of representation. I defy anyone to say that's democratic. |
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#1117 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 24,521
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Yougov poll apparently shows 20% of Tories and 27% of Libdems in Scotland will vote tactically.
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#1118 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,126
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Quote:
Probably- funny that the high undecided figures that have been in most Scottish polls never seems to get mentioned. Which could make a massive difference to the result- I think SNP supporters are likely to be disapointed next week. And let's be honest, the SNP's expectations are so unrealisticly high that if they get 40 seats they'd probably see it as a failure, if they only manage 20 they'll see it as a disaster (even though it would be more than tripling their number). And to be honest, I see somewhere around 20-25 seats being more realistic than the 50+ figures that these polls seem to suggest. I can see thms doing another vanishing act after next Thursday!
The SNP are a divisive party even in Scotland. Even if Labour only hold into 10-15 seats in Scotland that would still transform the result given the strong Labour swing in England most polls have been finding. |
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#1119 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 24,521
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Quote:
Yes remember the Indy ref polls all showed about 10% undecided voters and in the end the margin of victory for the No camp was about 11%. A lot of people are planning to vote tactically against the SNP and may not yet have settled decisively on what party is the best choice to do that. Virtually all my family in Gordon are going to vote Lib Dem including my Mum whose always voted Tory and said before she'd never vote Liberal under any circumstances.
The SNP are a divisive party even in Scotland. Even if Labour only hold into 10-15 seats in Scotland that would still transform the result given the strong Labour swing in England most polls have been finding. |
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#1120 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Mansfield
Posts: 27,530
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Quote:
Yes remember the Indy ref polls all showed about 10% undecided voters and in the end the margin of victory for the No camp was about 11%. A lot of people are planning to vote tactically against the SNP and may not yet have settled decisively on what party is the best choice to do that. Virtually all my family in Gordon are going to vote Lib Dem including my Mum whose always voted Tory and said before she'd never vote Liberal under any circumstances.
The SNP are a divisive party even in Scotland. |
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#1121 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,412
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Quote:
It's yet another example demonstrating why FPTP is such a crock.
We could very well have a situation where a party on 54% of the vote gaining 97% of representation. I defy anyone to say that's democratic. So those who wish to get rid of it are acting against the wishes of the public, that's certainly not democratic. |
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#1122 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,726
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Quote:
It's yet another example demonstrating why FPTP is such a crock.
We could very well have a situation where a party on 54% of the vote gaining 97% of representation. I defy anyone to say that's democratic. |
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#1123 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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New Guardian/ICM poll: Tory 3% lead
Tories: 35% (+1) Lab: 32% (nc) Ukip: 13% LD: 9% Green 5% |
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#1124 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 77,625
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So it's one all today , still no clear direction in the polls
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#1125 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,459
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Quote:
New Guardian/ICM poll: Tory 3% lead
Tories: 35% (+1) Lab: 32% (nc) Ukip: 13% LD: 9% Green 5% I know UKIP isn't totally comprised of ex-tory voters but a large chunk were. I would imagine for those that have voted blue in the past the prospect of a left wing Miliband/SNP deal could be terrifying. Maybe at the ballot box they try and do something about it? |
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