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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 27-04-2015, 16:31
blueisthecolour
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Whats your prediction for the final %s on May 7?
Probably

Tory 36%
Labour 32.5%
UKIP 13%
LD 9.5%
Green 4%
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:33
marjangles
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Survation were showing UKIP high and this generally hits Tory vote - indeed when many polls showed a Conservative Lead Survation was showing Labour as UKIP hit the Conservative vote.
Survation still have UKIP high though. Yesterday's poll which had the Tories 3 points ahead had UKIP on 18%.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:34
oathy
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People don't seem as intelligent as they used to be though. A customer came into the shop this morning and we were chatting about the election. I asked her if she was going to vote. She said, "No, no point. I like the current Government so why would I want to vote for another?"
LOL!!!


Whilst EM has made huge inroads I don't think its enough, he didn't shut down the entire SNP issue fast enough. then Nicola comes along and tells Radio 4 quite firmly Labour will have to do a deal. The media are obsessed with the entire SNP issue.

Its pretty clear now if Wee Eck hadn't been fronting the vote last year Scotland would have voted yes. They just seem to love everything about Nicola sturgeon. Tactical voting doesn't seem to be an option In Scotland with tories/Libdems not going to vote labour and hope for the best.

Camerons made such a big thing about stability I don't think that's something he will achieve in the next term I can see it being total chaos very much like Majors term.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:39
marke09
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Put the Ashcroft figures into electoral calculus and you get

Con 315 (24 gains/16losses)
Lab 244 (26/40)
Lib 11 (0/46)
UKip 0
grrens 1
SNP 58
PC 3
NI 18
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:40
Living4Love
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LOL!!!


Whilst EM has made huge inroads I don't think its enough, he didn't shut down the entire SNP issue fast enough. then Nicola comes along and tells Radio 4 quite firmly Labour will have to do a deal. The media are obsessed with the entire SNP issue.

Its pretty clear now if Wee Eck hadn't been fronting the vote last year Scotland would have voted yes. They just seem to love everything about Nicola sturgeon. Tactical voting doesn't seem to be an option In Scotland with tories/Libdems not going to vote labour and hope for the best.

Camerons made such a big thing about stability I don't think that's something he will achieve in the next term I can see it being total chaos very much like Majors term.
Yep and if Labour get the right leader in place they could do a repeat of 1997 and take a majority in 2020. Maybe in hindsight this will be a blessing for them.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:46
tiger2000
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Con - 274
Lab - 270
SNP - 54
LD - 27
UKIP - 4
Oth - 21

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...oll-projection
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:48
wizzywick
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Yep and if Labour get the right leader in place they could do a repeat of 1997 and take a majority in 2020. Maybe in hindsight this will be a blessing for them.
Yes, and once a majority government is elected again, the reign of majority Governments will continue thereafter.

Mind you, 2020 could be a historic election because if SNP do get the Holyrood majority next year, they could push for a referendum and win it! If that happens it'll probably co-incide with the 2020 elections as to when they become Independent.

Bear in mind that should Scotland go independent, The Tories may be the party with the most UK seats for many years to follow, often with a majority.

But of course, all this is hypothesis.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:48
jjne
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Survation still have UKIP high though. Yesterday's poll which had the Tories 3 points ahead had UKIP on 18%.
Survation are either going to be heroes or zeroes on May 8th.

Their polls have been skewed toward UKIP relative to other pollsters for a long time now. They are what are giving UKIP supporters hopes of gaining six million votes.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:48
mossy2103
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Put the Ashcroft figures into electoral calculus and you get

Con 315 (24 gains/16losses)
Lab 244 (26/40)
Lib 11 (0/46)
UKip 0
grrens 1
SNP 58
PC 3
NI 18
Which would appear to be crazy.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:48
marjangles
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Con - 274
Lab - 270
SNP - 54
LD - 27
UKIP - 4
Oth - 21
I don't think that yet includes the latest Ashcroft poll although his constituency polls have shown better results for Labour than his national one suggests!
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:49
oathy
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Yep and if Labour get the right leader in place they could do a repeat of 1997 and take a majority in 2020. Maybe in hindsight this will be a blessing for them.
I really can see it playing out like this.
Cameron's tone over Scotland he's sealed the fate of the union I really hope it was worth it.

Brilliant article on Twitter about the problems Labour have in Scotland all stemming from last year

https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/sta...471298/photo/1

they don't go near the error and hope people wont remember until that changes they are finished in Scotland.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:49
PrincessPerfect
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I don't understand how anyone can say that all the others are showing the Tories ahead. Populus, Panelbase have shown consistent Labour leads and Ipos Mori also showed Labour ahead in their last poll. I think it's far more clear that certain companies show leads for either Labour or the Tories for methodology reasons. Ashcroft and ICM have very similar methodologies so a lot of their large Tory leads depends on their reallocation of Ukip voters being right. More than anything else this election is too close to call because it's a battle of methodologies - there is no real uniform trend among pollsters but rather two camps - phone polls showing Tory leads and online polls showing Labour leads - opinium and survation are the exception to this generalisation. I suspect we'll only find out who is right on May 8th, as it's difficult to tell now.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:52
tiger2000
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Bear in mind that should Scotland go independent, The Tories may be the party with the most UK seats for many years to follow, often with a majority.

But of course, all this hypothesis.
Labour would have won the GE's of 1997, 2001 and 2005 with a comfortable majority even without their Scottish Seats.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:52
marke09
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...n-predictions/

not updated today but hover over your constituency and it shows predicted vote share
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:53
wizzywick
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We will know who will win the election tonight at 8.30pm on BBC1! Who will be watching?
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:54
Living4Love
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I really can see it playing out like this.
Cameron's tone over Scotland he's sealed the fate of the union I really hope it was worth it.

Brilliant article on Twitter about the problems Labour have in Scotland all stemming from last year

https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/sta...471298/photo/1

they don't go near the error and hope people wont remember until that changes they are finished in Scotland.
Yeah I do hope when the next Scottish referendum happens, which is likely to now before 2020 that Cameron and May's roles in Scotland voting Yes are not going to be forgotten about. They destroyed the union with this campaign. Like you I hope they believe it was worth it.
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:55
MattN
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Yep and if Labour get the right leader in place they could do a repeat of 1997 and take a majority in 2020. Maybe in hindsight this will be a blessing for them.
Unless the SNP screw up completely over the next 5 years the chances of Labour winning a majority ever again are extremely low.

Coalition politics is here for the long haul
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Old 27-04-2015, 16:56
Living4Love
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Unless the SNP screw up completely over the next 5 years the chances of Labour winning a majority ever again are extremely low.

Coalition politics is here for the long haul
As someone said, Labour didn't need Scotland in 1997, 2001 or 2005.
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Old 27-04-2015, 17:02
wizzywick
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Yeah I do hope when the next Scottish referendum happens, which is likely to now before 2020 that Cameron and May's roles in Scotland voting Yes are not going to be forgotten about. They destroyed the union with this campaign. Like you I hope they believe it was worth it.
Politics is a game. A blame game at that. Labour will blame Cameron (who will be gone by then) for breaking up the Union. The Tories will be "we told you mode! And then blame Labour for granting a referendum inwhich it was likely the Government would lose. These five years are going to be turbulent. Whoever is in power.
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Old 27-04-2015, 17:05
Phil 2804
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Given how tight the polls are turnout (as in the Scottish referendum) will be the deciding factor. The elderly Tories have probably sent their postal votes in already. Labour are aiming at struggling young people but will they actually bother to turn up next Thursday? If they don't it's going to be 1992 again.
When I looked last week Labour and Tory voters were saying they were 76/75% certain to vote. This is important for two reasons, firstly one of the reasons Labour win more seats than the Tories on each given % share is the tendency of Labour voters to stay at home in safe seats and turnout en masse in marginals, this generally distorts Labour's performance by the equivalent of an extra 2% UNS. Secondly those figures were much higher than those given for other supporters of other parties which suggests like 2010 come polling day there may be classic two party squeeze which defies the expectations of the polls.

Perhaps surprisingly given the state of politics in general in this country we could just see the highest turnout since 1992.
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Old 27-04-2015, 17:06
Living4Love
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Politics is a game. A blame game at that. Labour will blame Cameron (who will be gone by then) for breaking up the Union. The Tories will be "we told you mode! And then blame Labour for granting a referendum inwhich it was likely the Government would lose. These five years are going to be turbulent. Whoever is in power.
If the SNP are elected with the mandate for a referendum it has to be granted by Westminster. That's democracy. There is no 'we told you so about it' for either side.
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Old 27-04-2015, 17:10
Phil 2804
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As someone said, Labour didn't need Scotland in 1997, 2001 or 2005.
Plus you could say the same for the Tories as every time they've won an majority the size of it has been equal to or less than the number of seats they won in Scotland, the only exceptions being 1983, 1987 and 1959. In 1951 they would have even lost the election if Scotland had voted the same way as England...

As I said numerous times before if Cameron had done as well in Scotland as Maggie in 1979 and 1983 he'd have won an overall majority, Thus Cameron's ill thought out strategy of alienating Scottish voters will ultimately do his party more harm than good.
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Old 27-04-2015, 17:14
wizzywick
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If the SNP are elected with the mandate for a referendum it has to be granted by Westminster. That's democracy. There is no 'we told you so about it' for either side.
You misunderstood. I am aware that the referendum will be granted. But the Tories will be in "I told you so" mode referring back to their 2015 pre-election warnings regarding the pact, and Labour will accuse the Tories of instigating the referendum. Both parties will refuse to take the blame and both parties will blame each other.
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Old 27-04-2015, 17:20
Living4Love
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You misunderstood. I am aware that the referendum will be granted. But the Tories will be in "I told you so" mode referring back to their 2015 pre-election warnings regarding the pact, and Labour will accuse the Tories of instigating the referendum. Both parties will refuse to take the blame and both parties will blame each other.
Oh I see. Well tbh I believe Nicola S when she claims she won't be asking for a second referendum if the Tories aren't in power. So if Labour win I think that will keep the tide at bay for a while.

I do wonder though if the SNP are only on a big honeymoon period because their leader is currently the most popular person in politics. Popularity never lasts so she will be brought down to earth sooner or later. If and when that happens SNP support might dip too.
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Old 27-04-2015, 17:25
carnoch04
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Put the Ashcroft figures into electoral calculus and you get

Con 315 (24 gains/16losses)
Lab 244 (26/40)
Lib 11 (0/46)
UKip 0
grrens 1
SNP 58
PC 3
NI 18
I would suggest that the only accurate figure there is NI 18. SNP too high, LD too low and UKIP will definitely have some seats.
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