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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#1176 |
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: South
Posts: 10,863
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Quote:
Whats your prediction for the final %s on May 7?
Tory 36% Labour 32.5% UKIP 13% LD 9.5% Green 4% |
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#1177 |
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 6,773
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Quote:
Survation were showing UKIP high and this generally hits Tory vote - indeed when many polls showed a Conservative Lead Survation was showing Labour as UKIP hit the Conservative vote.
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#1178 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 22,159
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Quote:
People don't seem as intelligent as they used to be though. A customer came into the shop this morning and we were chatting about the election. I asked her if she was going to vote. She said, "No, no point. I like the current Government so why would I want to vote for another?"
![]() ![]() Whilst EM has made huge inroads I don't think its enough, he didn't shut down the entire SNP issue fast enough. then Nicola comes along and tells Radio 4 quite firmly Labour will have to do a deal. The media are obsessed with the entire SNP issue. Its pretty clear now if Wee Eck hadn't been fronting the vote last year Scotland would have voted yes. They just seem to love everything about Nicola sturgeon. Tactical voting doesn't seem to be an option In Scotland with tories/Libdems not going to vote labour and hope for the best. Camerons made such a big thing about stability I don't think that's something he will achieve in the next term I can see it being total chaos very much like Majors term. |
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#1179 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,623
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Put the Ashcroft figures into electoral calculus and you get
Con 315 (24 gains/16losses) Lab 244 (26/40) Lib 11 (0/46) UKip 0 grrens 1 SNP 58 PC 3 NI 18 |
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#1180 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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Quote:
LOL!!!
![]() Whilst EM has made huge inroads I don't think its enough, he didn't shut down the entire SNP issue fast enough. then Nicola comes along and tells Radio 4 quite firmly Labour will have to do a deal. The media are obsessed with the entire SNP issue. Its pretty clear now if Wee Eck hadn't been fronting the vote last year Scotland would have voted yes. They just seem to love everything about Nicola sturgeon. Tactical voting doesn't seem to be an option In Scotland with tories/Libdems not going to vote labour and hope for the best. Camerons made such a big thing about stability I don't think that's something he will achieve in the next term I can see it being total chaos very much like Majors term. |
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#1181 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Stoke-On-Trent
Posts: 7,158
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Today's Guardian Poll Projection Based on the Latest Polls
Con - 274
Lab - 270 SNP - 54 LD - 27 UKIP - 4 Oth - 21 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...oll-projection |
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#1182 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
Yep and if Labour get the right leader in place they could do a repeat of 1997 and take a majority in 2020. Maybe in hindsight this will be a blessing for them.
Mind you, 2020 could be a historic election because if SNP do get the Holyrood majority next year, they could push for a referendum and win it! If that happens it'll probably co-incide with the 2020 elections as to when they become Independent. Bear in mind that should Scotland go independent, The Tories may be the party with the most UK seats for many years to follow, often with a majority. But of course, all this is hypothesis. |
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#1183 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,487
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Quote:
Survation still have UKIP high though. Yesterday's poll which had the Tories 3 points ahead had UKIP on 18%.
Their polls have been skewed toward UKIP relative to other pollsters for a long time now. They are what are giving UKIP supporters hopes of gaining six million votes. |
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#1184 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Put the Ashcroft figures into electoral calculus and you get
Con 315 (24 gains/16losses) Lab 244 (26/40) Lib 11 (0/46) UKip 0 grrens 1 SNP 58 PC 3 NI 18 |
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#1185 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 6,773
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Quote:
Con - 274
Lab - 270 SNP - 54 LD - 27 UKIP - 4 Oth - 21 |
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#1186 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 22,159
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Quote:
Yep and if Labour get the right leader in place they could do a repeat of 1997 and take a majority in 2020. Maybe in hindsight this will be a blessing for them.
Cameron's tone over Scotland he's sealed the fate of the union I really hope it was worth it. Brilliant article on Twitter about the problems Labour have in Scotland all stemming from last year https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/sta...471298/photo/1 they don't go near the error and hope people wont remember until that changes they are finished in Scotland. |
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#1187 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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I don't understand how anyone can say that all the others are showing the Tories ahead. Populus, Panelbase have shown consistent Labour leads and Ipos Mori also showed Labour ahead in their last poll. I think it's far more clear that certain companies show leads for either Labour or the Tories for methodology reasons. Ashcroft and ICM have very similar methodologies so a lot of their large Tory leads depends on their reallocation of Ukip voters being right. More than anything else this election is too close to call because it's a battle of methodologies - there is no real uniform trend among pollsters but rather two camps - phone polls showing Tory leads and online polls showing Labour leads - opinium and survation are the exception to this generalisation. I suspect we'll only find out who is right on May 8th, as it's difficult to tell now.
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#1188 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Stoke-On-Trent
Posts: 7,158
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Quote:
Bear in mind that should Scotland go independent, The Tories may be the party with the most UK seats for many years to follow, often with a majority.
But of course, all this hypothesis. |
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#1189 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,623
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...n-predictions/
not updated today but hover over your constituency and it shows predicted vote share |
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#1190 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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We will know who will win the election tonight at 8.30pm on BBC1! Who will be watching?
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#1191 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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Quote:
I really can see it playing out like this.
Cameron's tone over Scotland he's sealed the fate of the union I really hope it was worth it. Brilliant article on Twitter about the problems Labour have in Scotland all stemming from last year https://twitter.com/sunny_hundal/sta...471298/photo/1 they don't go near the error and hope people wont remember until that changes they are finished in Scotland. |
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#1192 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Quote:
Yep and if Labour get the right leader in place they could do a repeat of 1997 and take a majority in 2020. Maybe in hindsight this will be a blessing for them.
Coalition politics is here for the long haul |
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#1193 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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Unless the SNP screw up completely over the next 5 years the chances of Labour winning a majority ever again are extremely low.
Coalition politics is here for the long haul |
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#1194 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
Yeah I do hope when the next Scottish referendum happens, which is likely to now before 2020 that Cameron and May's roles in Scotland voting Yes are not going to be forgotten about. They destroyed the union with this campaign. Like you I hope they believe it was worth it.
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#1195 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,126
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Quote:
Given how tight the polls are turnout (as in the Scottish referendum) will be the deciding factor. The elderly Tories have probably sent their postal votes in already. Labour are aiming at struggling young people but will they actually bother to turn up next Thursday? If they don't it's going to be 1992 again.
Perhaps surprisingly given the state of politics in general in this country we could just see the highest turnout since 1992. |
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#1196 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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Quote:
Politics is a game. A blame game at that. Labour will blame Cameron (who will be gone by then) for breaking up the Union. The Tories will be "we told you mode! And then blame Labour for granting a referendum inwhich it was likely the Government would lose. These five years are going to be turbulent. Whoever is in power.
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#1197 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,126
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Quote:
As someone said, Labour didn't need Scotland in 1997, 2001 or 2005.
As I said numerous times before if Cameron had done as well in Scotland as Maggie in 1979 and 1983 he'd have won an overall majority, Thus Cameron's ill thought out strategy of alienating Scottish voters will ultimately do his party more harm than good. |
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#1198 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
If the SNP are elected with the mandate for a referendum it has to be granted by Westminster. That's democracy. There is no 'we told you so about it' for either side.
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#1199 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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Quote:
You misunderstood. I am aware that the referendum will be granted. But the Tories will be in "I told you so" mode referring back to their 2015 pre-election warnings regarding the pact, and Labour will accuse the Tories of instigating the referendum. Both parties will refuse to take the blame and both parties will blame each other.
I do wonder though if the SNP are only on a big honeymoon period because their leader is currently the most popular person in politics. Popularity never lasts so she will be brought down to earth sooner or later. If and when that happens SNP support might dip too. |
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#1200 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,011
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Quote:
Put the Ashcroft figures into electoral calculus and you get
Con 315 (24 gains/16losses) Lab 244 (26/40) Lib 11 (0/46) UKip 0 grrens 1 SNP 58 PC 3 NI 18 |
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