Interesting this about 1992 is that there was a swing against the Tories of 2% but Major had the highest vote of any post war PM.

I agree with a lot of that, if the SNP get around 50 seats they are going to be the third largest party in politics, Its going to be tight and they will be a powerful group.

If those Ashcroft numbers are in anyway correct it looks like the biggest winner out of all this is Ironically the Lib Dems, to be so soundly trounced yet remain a partner in government. Which Is what Clegg has probably been aimimg for all along.

Although clearly I can't and will never be able to support what SNP stands for, nor am I happy about them holding the balance of power (not because I disrespect the Scottish vote but because the SNP intends, at some stage, to break up the UK), but I do recognise what a good, passionate politician Nicola Sturgeon is. She is fresh and has brought something different to politics. Part of the reason the polls are flatlined is because the politicians we have now are the same ones we had in 2010, 2005 and 2001. Same old faces, same old arguments. OK, the leaders might have changed but not a lot has.

All it will take is for either main party to install new faces, a new look and a fresh leader who has the same charisma and "star appeal" as Nicola Sturgeon and that party will win an election. I guarantee it! Or not!

Not really. Still a tie. Based on Margin of error. A lead would be anything over 37% with recent polling. You still think Red Ed is heading for a landslide, don't you?

I do wonder whether the polls, particularly towards the SNP and UKIP, are being skewed positively. When it comes to the election itself will voters get cold feet over a potential SNP involvement or Bluekip and return to the major parties out of fear?

When it comes to Scotland I do think the SNP look way too high. I can't help but wonder if on the day people who would have voted SNP just stick with Labour out of fear the Tories are going to get back in.

Non of the referendum polls predicted close to the result so if we use that in the same manner I think it proves that politics in Scotland always comes down to the wire.

Perhaps the biggest shock of the night won't be Clegg losing his seat or Farage not getting his but Labour actually managing to keep more seats in Scotland than what was expected.

I love an optimist...

The Scottish referendum polls were within 2%-3% of the final result. Based on today's poll, that would see the SNP on 51% and Labour on 25%. How many seats do you think Labour will hang onto under that scenario?

Tactical voting will play a part. I would be happy with 40+ SNP seats. I think 50+ is too much to hope for.

The Scottish Referendum was 44% Yes/55% No.

Not one poll came close to predicting that.

Yougov was the only one to get the result right but not until 9pm that evening.

That would be a good thing wouldn't it ?


Only if you study history.

A poll of 47/52 (which most were) is within the MOE

Living in Scotland, but not voting SNP I can see a definite surge to them. There are more posters on lamp posts than anyone else, signs in windows out number others and people I worked with who were strong No voters are voting SNP. They have more volunteers on the streets, decent hubs on lots of high streets and have more than quadrupled their membership. I live in a constituency with a Lib Dem majority of 13000 and it is now marginal. Fifty plus seats seems likely.

Any poll that has UKIP on a seat projection of 0 seats is wrong so forget it.

Correctly rounded the result was 45% Yes 55% No.

The final polls from these 3 companies were.

• Ipsos Mori: Yes 47%, No 53% (within 2%)
• YouGov: Yes 48%, No 52% (within 3%)
• Survation: Yes 47%, No 53% (within 2%)

Wasn't it the same with Yes posters, campaigners and hubs before the referendum vastly outnumbering No ones. Yet look what happened there.

Though people I know in Scotland are telling me they're seeing more posters for rival parties than they are for the SNP, as well as their campaigning and canvassing results not matching with what the polls are showing. Maybe people are seeing what they want to see.

I still think as I said earler 20-25 seats is a more realistic figure- there's been an increase in SNP support, but not anywhere near what the polls have been suggesting. Of course with the SNP's expectations set so high this will be seen as a disaster even though it would be a significant increase.

I just don't find the polls saying 50%+ and 50+ seats to be realistic, if it was then campaigners out on the streets would be hearing it, and the people I know who've been campaigning up there just aren't.

and many of us would consider the last 5 years a disaster for the country, so it's rather how you read history.

Big lead for Ashcroft, but looks an odd poll, with the Greens doing much better than normal, and UKIP much worse. We'll see, all in the MOE, for around about level pegging.

May I ask how you personally feel about the rise of the SNP? Does it worry you? How do you think they will conduct themselves in Westminster? And, do you feel their goal is for a majority in Holyrood with the mandate for a further referendum? I am curious as to how a Scottish non-SNP voter feels about it. To get a genuine perspective.

They'll get between three and five seats. imo

You could say the same for The Sun and Yougov.

(See, it's easy to be facetious!)

The ironic thing is that the votes to create these three to five seats would have given The Tories a majority.

And I can't see Labour losing seats compared with their 2010 figures, likewise the Tories gaining.

You heard wrong. The two places that had a Yes majority were Glasgow and Dundee and they have a high density of population compared to the more rural areas where it is mostly Lib Dems and the one lonely Tory. I do realize that you are trying to give the idea that Labour will do better than predicted but every poll for months has told the same story. The wee unionist boys will come out with fanciful suggestions that the SNP will not do as well as the evidence suggests but I will trust the polling more than the blethers of bitter together supporters

New ComRes/Newsnight poll: 55% think PM should be the leader of the party with the largest number of MPs

It does make you wonder how the public will react if David Cameron ought to be PM but isn't.

We have no written constitution but do have written rules regarding how Governments are formed. This is what the public don't realise- nor would they care. In this age where phone votes, instant winners and public opinion matter even more due to social media and so on, the way this election may turn out may put people off voting forever.

Especially as most polls still have David Cameron as preferred person for PM compared to Ed Miliband.