No way will LD only have 4.. Ahh, a typo!

If LibDems get just 4 seats I will eat my underpants via webcam and show it to the world!

Yeah I saw it but wasn't that impressed TBH. Half an hour to tell us that it is too close to call
Far as I remember he predicted CON 283 LAB 270 SNP 48 LD 20 something and UKIP with just the one seat

He said tories likely to be marginally the biggest party but outdone numbers wise by labour and the SNP.
He had the Lib Dems on 18 seats like John Curtice but basically admitted it's impossible to call because it is so tight.

He got it hopelessly wrong in 2010(but then again almost everyone had the Lib Dems doing better than the final result)

I think Nate is not so au fait with British politics. About the one confident prediction I'd make about this election is that "Other" will account for at least 19 MPs no matter what happens - even if Plaid lose every seat (and given Leanne Wood's performance, it's not a totally crazy idea) and if George Galloway doesn't get to be an MP, the 18 NI seats will all be won by NI parties, and the Speaker is unlikely to be in any danger of losing his seat.

I thought he said lib dem 18 but I may have rembered it wrong?

Those figures look low for the DUP and high for Plaid. (Though I messed up my earlier estimate of the DUP's strength, as I calculated it by remainder instead of looking up the numbers, and forgot Sylvia Hermon.) I wonder what their basis is.

I think the next PM is being handed a poison chalice. The government will be unworkable if its anything like these seat projections being predicted.

A second election really does look likely in my opinion.

This is the same individual who generated this headline:

US statistical genius Nate Silver got UK 2010 election results wrong

I would much prefer to go with the existing UK polling organisations including Lord Ashcroft's marginal seat polls.

Sorry, another mistake on my part (tried to do it from memory)

He included DUP on 8 as a separate figure.

According to their website:

This was written before today's poll which has seen the Tories drop to 281.

So to clarify:

Tory - 283
Labour - 270
SNP - 48
Lib Dem - 24
DUP - 8
Others - 16

I would predict a second general election, but I personally don't think it will happen until:

a) After the Scottish Parliamentary Elections and
b) Until the Tories have a new leader and are proving more promising with the electorate. (A lot can happen in a few months in politics. Just one popular leader and some great positivity is all it needs).

So, I predict a second general election in Autumn 2016.

It will all depend entirely on the markets. If they show signs of crashing then I can't see how the biggest party could justify causing potential chaos that could ruin them come the next polling day if they were to try and delay it for their own gain.

Suddenly this whole thing has turned into one giant mess. I guess we know why Cameron now looks on the brink of a breakdown. Maybe he knows and doesn't want to win.

True. But on the other hand, a poor economy with the threat of a crash is a great opportunity for an opposition party to fire some ammo! I think we are all speculating because it is totally unfamiliar to us. The last election at least enabled a stable majority Government. We won't get that this time so all of us are just assuming what will or will not bring down a Government, whether or not they'll be a second election, whether or not a SNP backed Labour Minority will or won't work or survive.

None of us know. It could be the best Government we've ever had. It might be a shambles. It might last a year. It might last five years. It is fun to speculate but only time will tell.

What I do know, is that many people from all kinds of organisations predict a second election before the end of the five year term. Will they be right? Possibly.

I don't think there will be another election for at least three years as neither of the parties who could bring it about (Lib Dem and SNP) could afford another campaign.

The Tories will never call a second election if they can get away with it. Even more so if UKIP only winning one seat becomes fact. Why? the people who say they never vote as they don't know who to vote for are typically more left wing so will boost Labour if they suddenly realise its make or break while the SNP vote could well go back to Labour also. The SNP will have no money left to fight a second election given they will also have to focus on next years home elections.

Scotland in going to have had 5 major elections in 6 years.

Pretty remarkable feat

You can't rule out Labour themselves bringing it about! As I say, we're in unfamiliar territory. And if Labour felt the best way to strengthen their Labour vote in Scotland was to distance themselves from the SNP in order to show their voters "Vote Labour, get Labour" then that could be an option. I doubt if they'd care whether the SNP could afford a second campaign or not.

Anyway come next May, the SNP may well have a majority in Edinburgh so their position will be strengthened so funding will be available for them from more donators than ever.

Someone asked earlier on about the Bradford West constituency where Respect's George Galloway is currently the MP.

As far as I know, no detailed constituency polls have been conducted. It's a Labour vs. Respect contest but it might not necessarily be a straightforward win for Labour as we can see here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31749227

I don't care to predict which way this particular constituency will go. In contrast, neighbouring Bradford East looks like an easy gain for Labour from the Lib Dems.

Well, if the country is seen as going down the pan and the Government seem unable to do anything about it, the voters, left wing or not, will not tolerate a shambolic Government. You severely under-estimate the power of a political party if things seem to be going in their favour.

It might be out of the Conservatives' hands though.

I've argued for a little while now that I think the next Government will be a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition with unofficial confidence and supply from the SNP. It'll be a tightrope Government, where one disagreement could drag down the house of cards completely - especially if the Coalition pushes their luck with the SNP. But, if you're right about left wing voters, Labour may take the plunge and decide they can get a more workable Government if they call another election.

In order to do this they will have to overturn the Fixed Term Parliament bill; will they get enough votes to do this in the first place? I can't see the Conservatives or the SNP agreeing to that as they would see right through what Labour/the Coalition were trying to do. Presumably the other alternative will be a Vote of No Confidence but Labour wouldn't want to go into an election off the back of one of those.

I wonder what the polls would currently be if we had an unbiased press. Do you think it would be the same or does it make a difference?

...and this from the same guy who predicted 101 dalmatians and 101 Liberal Democrat MPs in 2010. Do I trust him and his methods? I think not!