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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#1276 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
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Quote:
It might be out of the Conservatives' hands though.
I've argued for a little while now that I think the next Government will be a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition with unofficial confidence and supply from the SNP. It'll be a tightrope Government, where one disagreement could drag down the house of cards completely - especially if the Coalition pushes their luck with the SNP. But, if you're right about left wing voters, Labour may take the plunge and decide they can get a more workable Government if they call another election. In order to do this they will have to overturn the Fixed Term Parliament bill; will they get enough votes to do this in the first place? I can't see the Conservatives or the SNP agreeing to that as they would see right through what Labour/the Coalition were trying to do. Presumably the other alternative will be a Vote of No Confidence but Labour wouldn't want to go into an election off the back of one of those. They did in 1974, and won a majority. If the polls suggest that Labour could win another election, I wouldn't mind betting that a vote of no confidence is called and instead of The Tories voting it down (as they would be aware of what Labour were trying to do), the left wing alliance join in with the Labour Party. But, would that be three quarters of the house? |
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#1277 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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I wonder what the polls would currently be if we had an unbiased press. Do you think it would be the same or does it make a difference?
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#1278 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Brighton
Posts: 1,973
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Quote:
It might be out of the Conservatives' hands though.
I've argued for a little while now that I think the next Government will be a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition with unofficial confidence and supply from the SNP. It'll be a tightrope Government, where one disagreement could drag down the house of cards completely - especially if the Coalition pushes their luck with the SNP. But, if you're right about left wing voters, Labour may take the plunge and decide they can get a more workable Government if they call another election. In order to do this they will have to overturn the Fixed Term Parliament bill; will they get enough votes to do this in the first place? I can't see the Conservatives or the SNP agreeing to that as they would see right through what Labour/the Coalition were trying to do. Presumably the other alternative will be a Vote of No Confidence but Labour wouldn't want to go into an election off the back of one of those. All three would have to make sure it works otherwise they will be crucified at the polling boxes when the next election comes. |
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#1279 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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Quote:
They did in 1974, and won a majority. If the polls suggest that Labour could win another election, I wouldn't mind betting that a vote of no confidence is called and instead of The Tories voting it down (as they would be aware of what Labour were trying to do), the left wing alliance join in with the Labour Party. But, would that be three quarters of the house?
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#1280 |
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,009
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Quote:
They did in 1974, and won a majority. If the polls suggest that Labour could win another election, I wouldn't mind betting that a vote of no confidence is called and instead of The Tories voting it down (as they would be aware of what Labour were trying to do), the left wing alliance join in with the Labour Party. But, would that be three quarters of the house?
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#1281 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
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But why would the Left Wing Alliance vote for a Vote of No Confidence when, presumably, the polls in this case would indicate Labour gaining? Presumably Labour's gains would be at their expense. In a case like this where Labour aims for a Vote of No Confidence I can see the left wing voting with the Conservatives to maintain the Government and trying to present Labour as betrayers of the people they're supposed to represent. The only time the left wing would vote with Labour in a Vote of No Confidence is if the Conservatives call it.
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#1282 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Latest Scottish Westminster poll (Survation | 22 - 27 Apr):
SNP - 51% (+4) LAB - 26% (-) CON - 14% (-2) LDEM - 5% (+1) |
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#1283 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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Quote:
Latest Scottish Westminster poll (Survation | 22 - 27 Apr):
SNP - 51% (+4) LAB - 26% (-) CON - 14% (-2) LDEM - 5% (+1) |
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#1284 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 2,069
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Latest YouGov poll (26 - 27 Apr):
CON - 35% (+2) LAB - 34% (-) UKIP - 12% (-2) LDEM - 9% (+1) GRN - 5% (-) |
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#1285 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,408
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Quote:
Latest Scottish Westminster poll (Survation | 22 - 27 Apr):
SNP - 51% (+4) LAB - 26% (-) CON - 14% (-2) LDEM - 5% (+1) It's obvious to say but every extra seat or two Labour can hold onto north of the border could be crucial in the final reckoning. Quote:
Latest YouGov poll (26 - 27 Apr):
CON - 35% (+2) LAB - 34% (-) UKIP - 12% (-2) LDEM - 9% (+1) GRN - 5% (-) It's the first YouGov poll to show a Tory lead in almost a week - and only the second to show a Tory lead in their last 18 polls. Also significant to see that their gain came directly from UKIP. But again, it doesn't exceed the margin of error. |
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#1286 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
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YouGov showing the Tories with a one-point lead - be interesting to see if this continues into tomorrow night. A good polling day for the Tories, for sure - maybe they are one/two points ahead.
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#1287 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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Quote:
Latest YouGov poll (26 - 27 Apr):
CON - 35% (+2) LAB - 34% (-) UKIP - 12% (-2) LDEM - 9% (+1) GRN - 5% (-) A long way to go as of yet, of course. |
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#1288 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
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Quote:
So YouGov are suggesting a Conservative boost too. Interesting it comes from UKIP... does it answer the question I posed earlier about voters acting on fear and swaying towards the main parties from the smaller ones?
A long way to go as of yet, of course. I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf |
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#1289 |
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Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Ireland
Posts: 857
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Latest Scottish Westminster poll (Survation | 22 - 27 Apr):
SNP - 51% (+4) LAB - 26% (-) CON - 14% (-2) LDEM - 5% (+1) "Phone polls, internet surveys, polling by fax - makes no difference in Scotland:*#SNP*is on course for a landslide of gargantuan proportions" |
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#1290 |
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Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,884
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It will all depend entirely on the markets. If they show signs of crashing then I can't see how the biggest party could justify causing potential chaos that could ruin them come the next polling day if they were to try and delay it for their own gain.
Suddenly this whole thing has turned into one giant mess. I guess we know why Cameron now looks on the brink of a breakdown. Maybe he knows and doesn't want to win. |
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#1291 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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Those Tories on Political Betting, are insane though - the kind of people who really make you think about the Conservative Party. There's something not quite right about them - their tendency to overreact to polls is hilarious.
Nonetheless, I wonder if we'll start to see a trend across all pollsters towards the Tories now? I have a (bad) feeling that they'll be the largest party in a hung parliament - only really, the LD parliamentary party, and federal executive committee can stop a full blown Tory/LD coalition now, IMHO. Especially as Clegg doesn't appear to be drawing the EU ref as a red line - if he's prepared to accept it, then that's one huge milestone out the way. That of course depends on Clegg keeping his seat, which is still a knife edge situation right now. If he goes, along with Alexander that's a huge loss for the Tories in regard to coalition hopes. Even if the Tories form a minority government, I suspect without LD support at the least it wouldn't be able to pass a Queen's Speech (in fact, maybe even with LD support, with SNP + Lab combination, it could still lose). Oh well, we've still got a long way to go. But even I'm starting to have a feeling that the Tories, with the SNP tactic have edged away, although I think it's a small lead. If they do make managed to form a government, it'll be interesting to see how they make it out of a period that will include an EU ref (and how the Tories avoid tearing themselves a part over it), perhaps another Scottish ref (when Scots may well leave the union), and if they'll even meet their targets of cuts, given how they've not managed to do so in this term. |
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#1292 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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Quote:
It's just margin of error stuff I suspect.
I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf So many promises have been made in regards to Housing I think any more announcements will just be met with 'what more'? Their key one is the rent promise. |
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#1293 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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Quote:
It's just margin of error stuff I suspect.
I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf |
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#1294 |
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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I wonder if the Ashcroft polls may have had some effect on the bookies. Odds have lengthened on UKIP wins in Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth and Rochester and Strood. They've shortened in Dagenham and Rainham but not enough to make a UKIP win look likely (yet), and in Thurrock which Ladbrokes had down as a UKIP favourite to win last week anyway.
Aside from that, the only other notable changes I can spot - also covered in the Ashcroft polls - are that Labour is now tipped to win Bristol West, and the Tories are more certain to hold Bristol North West. If all the Ladbrokes favourites win, this makes C 280, L 263, LD 26, SNP 54, PC 3, UKIP 3, GRN 1, RES 1, Spkr 1 (no NI data available). |
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#1295 |
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 4,683
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I really cant see the polls moving for either Labour or the Conservatives to make any difference. There is no way to check their accuracy. As the politicians say the only poll that counts is the one on May 7th.
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#1296 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 117,020
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Quote:
I wonder if the Ashcroft polls may have had some effect on the bookies. Odds have lengthened on UKIP wins in Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth and Rochester and Strood. They've shortened in Dagenham and Rainham but not enough to make a UKIP win look likely (yet), and in Thurrock which Ladbrokes had down as a UKIP favourite to win last week anyway.
Aside from that, the only other notable changes I can spot - also covered in the Ashcroft polls - are that Labour is now tipped to win Bristol West, and the Tories are more certain to hold Bristol North West. If all the Ladbrokes favourites win, this makes C 280, L 263, LD 26, SNP 54, PC 3, UKIP 3, GRN 1, RES 1, Spkr 1 (no NI data available). |
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#1297 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,617
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One reason for the increase in con share is that April pay packets have started to land with the increase in tax thresholds giving all a tax cut and taking some vout of tax altogether
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#1298 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: on the Fence
Posts: 7,594
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Quote:
I wonder if the Ashcroft polls may have had some effect on the bookies. Odds have lengthened on UKIP wins in Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth and Rochester and Strood. They've shortened in Dagenham and Rainham but not enough to make a UKIP win look likely (yet), and in Thurrock which Ladbrokes had down as a UKIP favourite to win last week anyway.
Aside from that, the only other notable changes I can spot - also covered in the Ashcroft polls - are that Labour is now tipped to win Bristol West, and the Tories are more certain to hold Bristol North West. If all the Ladbrokes favourites win, this makes C 280, L 263, LD 26, SNP 54, PC 3, UKIP 3, GRN 1, RES 1, Spkr 1 (no NI data available).
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#1299 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,796
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One thing I will say is Labour re on 34 per cent on yougov, if they hold that per centage, that's I think 4 or 5 per cent better then they did in 2010 and this is taking into account the mauling they're getting in Scotland, so do be up 4 per cent they must be doing very well in England/Wales compared to 2010
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#1300 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: London
Posts: 5,138
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Significantly, Sturgeon told Evan Davis tonight that she would back Labour Queen's Speech and seek to exert influence afterwards.
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