DS Forums

 
 

Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


Reply
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 28-04-2015, 09:01
David Tee
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 22,520
The point would be that the government represents the wishes of the majority. UKIP are unique in their position on a few major policies, so you either love them or hate than, but they will struggle to find friends in Parliament. Like the main parties they could move nearer the centre but that would kind of defeat the point.

They are a minority party and will not hold the reigns of power while that is the case.
Sure - I accept all that. But whats the point of representation if it never delivers?
David Tee is offline   Reply With Quote
Please sign in or register to remove this advertisement.
Old 28-04-2015, 09:07
blueisthecolour
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: South
Posts: 10,847
Don't we have to factor in Labours built in advantage within the voting system though? The Tory's have to be about six points ahead of Labour just to get the same number of seats or something like that.

Many Tory's and Lib Dem's don't want another coalition and neither do I. The best option is a Tory majority but as that seems impossible I now would prefer Labour to be the largest party.
Because of Scotland this advantage doesn't really exist any more. Labour are going to lose 4 times as many seats to the SNP as they will votes. That basically resets everything to an almost equal status with the Tories.

Both parties are going to need to get above 37% to get a majority.
blueisthecolour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 09:25
MARTYM8
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,288
Sure - I accept all that. But whats the point of representation if it never delivers?
Ask people who vote Labour?!

I have just heard Yvette Cooper on the radio explaining how she is going to control immigration - the conclusion of the interviewer and I expect the rest of us was that she can't inside the EU but she just couldn't be honest. Apparently they are bringing back exit controls too - and who got rid of them?

Same with housing - apparently the party that saw house prices rise 400 per cent in a decade, delivered only 3 per cent of the council housing even Thatcher did and saw buy to let landlord numbers rise ten fold are going to solve the housing crisis.

I know they didn't deliver last time but this time it will be different!
MARTYM8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 09:28
blueisthecolour
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: South
Posts: 10,847
Sure - I accept all that. But whats the point of representation if it never delivers?
In your example it will deliver. The 15 odd percent of the country that backs UKIP will have a 15% of the MPs representing them in parliament. This will be able to make speeches, propose legislation, ask questions, vote on issues.

However the majority of people in the country who fundamentally disagree with UKIP policy will have a block of MPs who are committed to preventing them from ever implementing their policies. That's how democracy should work. If UKIP ever wanted to achieve any real power they would need to convince a majority of the public to either vote for them or another party who is sympathetic to their aims.

The reason the Tories/Labour can govern without a majority is because their politics aren't so toxic that other political factions avoid them.
blueisthecolour is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 09:41
Mariesam
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 2,101
Indeed. Didn't see the programme but BBC News just showed the ending and I agree.. he's effectively just read out the predicted seats from polling. Which as you rightly point out.. has UKIP on 1 seat when they look pretty good bets for at least 2 seats, possibly 3. It was just a gimmick basically.

Would have been much better to have had someone like Ashcroft do it.
Also important to note he mentioned about shy conservatives.....where as Labour supporters tend to be more vocal and into activism.....you cant say that about most tories and this might have some significance yet......
Mariesam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 09:44
Mariesam
Forum Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 2,101
Ask people who vote Labour?!

I have just heard Yvette Cooper on the radio explaining how she is going to control immigration - the conclusion of the interviewer and I expect the rest of us was that she can't inside the EU but she just couldn't be honest. Apparently they are bringing back exit controls too - and who got rid of them?

Same with housing - apparently the party that saw house prices rise 400 per cent in a decade, delivered only 3 per cent of the council housing even Thatcher did and saw buy to let landlord numbers rise ten fold are going to solve the housing crisis.

I know they didn't deliver last time but this time it will be different!
They also don't want to give a figure on how many should be allowed in......all that I understand about both Labour and UKIP policies is when/if they get in power they wont include seasonal workers and foreign students in the migration figure....so that helps then with 150,000 a year for starters.....so fiddling figures seems the order of the day.
Mariesam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:00
dodrade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,106
Don't forget the Greens!
Sorry, that makes 327 then, which minus Sinn Fein and the Speaker (who votes with the government in the event of a tie) gives a working majority of 9, but I fear the swingback to another Con/Lib Dem coalition is already underway.
dodrade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:20
MartinP
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: North London, UK
Posts: 28,048
Prospect of Labour-SNP coalition makes one in four voters less likely to support Ed Miliband, says survey

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-10208223.html

People who intend to vote Ukip were most likely to be put off by the prospect of a Labour-SNP deal. Some 29 per cent of them said it would make them less likely to back Labour, while only 7 per cent said it would make that more likely. The prospect is not putting off most Labour supporters: 31 per cent said a link-up with the SNP would make them more likely to back Mr Miliband’s party, while 16 per cent said it would make it less likely. Among Liberal Democrat supporters, a Lab-SNP deal would make them 27 per cent less likely to back Labour and only 13 per cent more likely.

Quite a lot of UKIP voters for the Tories to target....
MartinP is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:30
wizzywick
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
Sorry, that makes 327 then, which minus Sinn Fein and the Speaker (who votes with the government in the event of a tie) gives a working majority of 9, but I fear the swingback to another Con/Lib Dem coalition is already underway.
Can you seriously, honestly, openly imagine a coalition with all left wing parties really ever taking off? There would be weeks upon weeks of deals, negotiations and so on, because the further left you go, the more demanding it gets. Labour would largely disagree with any extreme left view which would destabilise thge negotiations and prolong it.

The reason the ConDem coalition worked was simply because, according to the LibDem negotiators, "The Tories were surprisingly co-operative and were more open to compromises than Labour were prepared to be" (or words to that effect).

i think when you have a coalition of two totally different parties like the Tories and LibDems, it is easier to come up with a workeable partnership because both sides can dilute the worst policies of the other side and reach some common ground on the policies that are conflicting.
wizzywick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:34
oathy
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 22,156
Latest TNS-BMRB poll (26 - 30 Mar):
CON - 33% (-)
LAB - 32% (-)
UKIP - 16% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (+1)
oathy is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:38
MattXfactor
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
Latest TNS-BMRB poll (26 - 30 Mar):
CON - 33% (-)
LAB - 32% (-)
UKIP - 16% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (+1)
The polls appear to be ever so slightly shifting in favor of the Tories but we need another 3-4 before I'm sure on that.
MattXfactor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:41
Big Poy
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,775
Latest TNS-BMRB poll (26 - 30 Mar):
CON - 33% (-)
LAB - 32% (-)
UKIP - 16% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (+1)
March?
Big Poy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:46
marke09
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,617
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8m8 minutes ago

TNS-BMRB Poll (23th - 27th April)
CON - 34% (+2)
LAB - 33% (-1)
UKIP - 15% (-)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (-)
marke09 is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 11:49
oathy
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 22,156
LOL!!! twitter has been slow but never that slow sorry about that.
it popped into my timeline as "instant"
oathy is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:10
dodrade
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 6,106
Can you seriously, honestly, openly imagine a coalition with all left wing parties really ever taking off? There would be weeks upon weeks of deals, negotiations and so on, because the further left you go, the more demanding it gets. Labour would largely disagree with any extreme left view which would destabilise thge negotiations and prolong it.

The reason the ConDem coalition worked was simply because, according to the LibDem negotiators, "The Tories were surprisingly co-operative and were more open to compromises than Labour were prepared to be" (or words to that effect).

i think when you have a coalition of two totally different parties like the Tories and LibDems, it is easier to come up with a workeable partnership because both sides can dilute the worst policies of the other side and reach some common ground on the policies that are conflicting.
It would be enough for a Labour Queen's speech, but the key to remain in power as a minority government is to make sure all the opposition parties don't vote against you at the same time. On some issues like Trident Labour would be supported by the Tories, on others they might try to win over the Lib Dems, they wouldn't always be reliant on the SNP.
dodrade is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:14
MattXfactor
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8m8 minutes ago

TNS-BMRB Poll (23th - 27th April)
CON - 34% (+2)
LAB - 33% (-1)
UKIP - 15% (-)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (-)
quite a few polls with the tories ahead now? Do TNS normally have lab ahead?
MattXfactor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:21
OLD HIPPY GUY
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: I survived the killzone!
Posts: 18,247
Ask people who vote Labour?!

I have just heard Yvette Cooper on the radio explaining how she is going to control immigration - the conclusion of the interviewer and I expect the rest of us was that she can't inside the EU but she just couldn't be honest. Apparently they are bringing back exit controls too - and who got rid of them?

Same with housing - apparently the party that saw house prices rise 400 per cent in a decade, delivered only 3 per cent of the council housing even Thatcher did and saw buy to let landlord numbers rise ten fold are going to solve the housing crisis.

I know they didn't deliver last time but this time it will be different!
Seriously you are going with that? what is the score at the moment on Tory broken promises U turns and failures to meet targets?
let's not forget that the beloved leader actually gave quite clear instructions that we should vote him out if he fails on one particular target, a target he didn't even come close to reaching, I am only doing as the beloved leader commanded.
OLD HIPPY GUY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:24
OLD HIPPY GUY
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: I survived the killzone!
Posts: 18,247
quite a few polls with the tories ahead now? Do TNS normally have lab ahead?
be very very careful because I am certain that 'someone' will be along quite soon to accuse all Tory supporters of wetting their nick nicks every time they get a 1% lead, as well as pointing out that 1% is well within the margin of error,

Oh!! hang on...... that's only true when it's Labour supporters,
OLD HIPPY GUY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:25
David Tee
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 22,520
In your example it will deliver. The 15 odd percent of the country that backs UKIP will have a 15% of the MPs representing them in parliament. This will be able to make speeches, propose legislation, ask questions, vote on issues.

However the majority of people in the country who fundamentally disagree with UKIP policy will have a block of MPs who are committed to preventing them from ever implementing their policies. That's how democracy should work. If UKIP ever wanted to achieve any real power they would need to convince a majority of the public to either vote for them or another party who is sympathetic to their aims.

The reason the Tories/Labour can govern without a majority is because their politics aren't so toxic that other political factions avoid them.
I don't doubt that under PR, UKIP will be fairly represented in Parliament. My point is that the representation will count for nothing. No other parties will support their prime objectives. So, why bother with PR if, potentially, representation doesn't deliver? Why swap one system that doesn't deliver for another that also doesn't?
David Tee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:31
MattXfactor
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
be very very careful because I am certain that 'someone' will be along quite soon to accuse all Tory supporters of wetting their nick nicks every time they get a 1% lead, as well as pointing out that 1% is well within the margin of error,

Oh!! hang on...... that's only true when it's Labour supporters,
I've never accused you of anything and I wasn't saying that I was just asking people
MattXfactor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:45
wizzywick
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
I don't doubt that under PR, UKIP will be fairly represented in Parliament. My point is that the representation will count for nothing. No other parties will support their prime objectives. So, why bother with PR if, potentially, representation doesn't deliver? Why swap one system that doesn't deliver for another that also doesn't?
But surely, true representation only comes when a party can attract a sufficient amount of supporters?

Perhaps when/if the SNP can win independence in Scotland, this might spark new interest in UKIP and make them more appealing as a party than Labour and Conservative? To be truly represented you must first attract the masses. Isn't that the whole point of PR? That the parties get allocated seats based on their popular vote? So if you are the least popular you will get the least amount of representation?
wizzywick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:49
OLD HIPPY GUY
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: I survived the killzone!
Posts: 18,247
I've never accused you of anything and I wasn't saying that I was just asking people
Sorry, it wasn't aimed at you, although I see how it might appear that way, I thought that me emphasising 'someone' in my previous post was me indicating that I didn't mean you,
there are one or two Tory supporters on here, one in particular, who any time a labour supporter or two makes a comment as neutral as yours, will insist that "all" Labour supporters wet themselves every time they have a 1% lead in one poll,

OLD HIPPY GUY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:52
Amanda_Raymond
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,796
Nate Silver said the party in power always do better on the polls then they do on the actual night
Amanda_Raymond is offline Follow this poster on Twitter   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 12:57
wizzywick
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,888
Nate Silver said the party in power always do better on the polls then they do on the actual night
But there are "2" parties in power. Which one will suffer the worst?
wizzywick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 28-04-2015, 13:08
CRTHD
Forum Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Lat: 52.666; Long: -1.2833
Posts: 6,501
Also important to note he mentioned about shy conservatives.....where as Labour supporters tend to be more vocal and into activism.....you cant say that about most tories and this might have some significance yet......
Indeed and when the 15-odd% that are currently telling pollsters they're voting UKIP, hopefully come to their senses and realise it's a wasted vote, that will lead to a disastrous Miliband's Labour win, they'll return to the fold.
CRTHD is offline   Reply With Quote
 
Reply




 
Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 23:20.