This is probably worth a separate thread - I've derailed this one long enough. The point I'm making is that representation that doesn't translate into action is pretty meaningless.

Oh, I think we know the answer to that...

I do hope the pollsters get a good kicking over this election, I'm tired of their smugness.

What's also annoying is how the media are treating these people as latter-day sooth-sayers on a wide range of issues. Apparently YouGov know what you are thinking even before you do.

I have a feeling that if the polls were showing a Labour lead of 10 points you would not have made this post

To answer your question:-

17 Mar - CON +1
31 Mar - CON +1
7 Apr - LAB +3
14 Apr - CON +3
21 Apr - LAB +2
28 Apr - CON +1

A real sign of a move to the Tories would be a lead in a poll from Populus (14 LAB leads and 3 ties since 1 March) or Panelbase (3 LAB leads, 2 ties) or IPSOS-Mori (2 LAB leads)

I have to take issue with that. A Miliband lead Labour, with the Unions (don't forget they put him there) and the SNP pulling his strings, will be the most left wing since the disastrous days of Wilson and Healey.

Ah okay jolly good no problem! I should of noticed that when I read your post.

Ah thanks very much Mike very helpful.

I always thought it was the other way around: that at the last minute, some voters will lose their nerve (being worried about change) and stick with the incumbent party.

Really? That's an interesting thing for him to say because in 2010 I seem to remember Labour being at around 24-28% through much of the campaign with the polls but then slightly outperforming that on the night, also in 1992 the Conservatives massively outperformed the polls on the night.

I'd of thought that too, in 1992 and 2010 to a lesser extent that seemed to happen.

No worries,

Yep, there's definitely been a swingback towards the Tories. If YG also show the same thing again tonight, Labour have got quite a big problem on their hands. They're going to have to hope that pollsters (collectively) are wrong, which seems quite unlikely tbh.

Even though their lead is a mere 1 point? And even that is well within MoE?

Interesting figures on the voting preferences of various professions and jobs and classes in the Times Redbox yesterday

City Workers and Finance Sector - Tory 46%, Labour 19%, LD 5%, Green 4%, UKIP 10%

Health Sector Labour 31%, Tory 27%, LD 6%, Green 4%, UKIP 11%

Students Labour 29%, Tory 25%, Green 13%, LD 8% UKIP 4%

Unemployed Labour 36%, Tory 16%, UKIP 14%, Green 6%, LD 6%

AB Tory 37%, Labour 26%, LD 8%, UKIP 8%, Green 5%

C1 Tory 30%, Labour 27%, UKIP 10%, LD 7%, Green 7%

C2 Labour 30%, Tory 27%, UKIP 15%, LD 4%, Green 4%

D Labour 32%, Tory 23%, UKIP 16%, LD 5%, Green 4%

E Labour 38%, Tory 19%, UKIP 15%, LD 5%, Green 4%
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/redbox/top...box-the-voters

That's true, but looking at the overall trend these are all the pollsters now showing Tory leads:

ComRes
Survation
TNS-BRMB
YouGov
Opinum
ICM
Ashcroft

Now, Survation may be the dodgy one out of the above; their UKIP shares are way out of line with all the other pollsters. I suspect Ashcroft is underestimating the UKIP vote share, and I doubt that the Tories have a six point lead. However, if Kippers do swingback towards the Tories then ICM metholodgy will have been vindicated. YouGov are usually very good for Lab, so it's a bit concerning that the Tories (although it could be MOE) led - if tonight normal service resumes, then last night may just been some MOE movement. But I am getting a feeling, that there has been a movement towards the Tories - while it's normal for ICM and Ashcroft to show good polls for the Tories in this recent campaign, four good polls on the bounce for the Tories is something that's difficult not to notice - and in the last week and half or so, the Tories have had three 4% leads, two 3% leads, and one 6% lead (their second of the campaign). I hope I'm wrong, I really do - mainly because I'm pretty fearful of what Osborne will do to the economy!

I'm actually shocked that Lab are ahead with C2s - though the sizeable UKIP block of C2s is not too surprising, just confirms what I've previously thought and why the Tories will fight to get them back onside.

It seems to me that we are just reverting back to the sort of polling levels we experienced before the leaders debates (when Ed Miliband went from sub zero to . . . . . well basically zero). The Tories are getting back into the mid 30s whilst Labour are very much stuck at 33%.

I personally think we've already arrived at the final voting pattern for the election, nothing else is going to change. It's just going to be a case of voter turnout and whether the polling companies were underestimating either the Tory or UKIP vote.

Lib Dems relied a lot on the student vote last election, only 8 per cent this time round, ouch.

This from Nate Silver interview in The Guardian

Silver said the polls show an even split, but there is perhaps a “tendency for the incumbent party to do a little bit better on than its polls on election day”

Maybe I misread that wrong now looking at it

Yes, I doubt they'll be any more twists. I'm watching out for MORI this week too - I wonder if they'll show a Tory lead?

The one thing that may turn out to be a poisoned chalice for the Tories, is that although they'll be the largest party, even if they do a deal with the LDs, even with UKIP/DUP support, they may not be able to cobble a majority together, with the left-parties still having more numbers. In a time when another IndyRef could be looming, as well as the EU ref, and the economy still not quite there, that could be a very unstable government.

Okay thanks.

Actually looking at it again i don't think I misread it, seems to be saying they seem to a bit better on polls now then it actually on polls on election day.

They do have a say. They have the Scottish parliament.

From the 2010 GE, that's:
Con -2
Lab +4
LD - 16
UKIP +12
Green +4

I fail to see how the Tories will end up with more seats than they have at present