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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#1401 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,411
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Quote:
Parties getting a reduced share of the vote just don't end up getting more seats - it doesn't happen. Based on a lower share of the vote, there will be fewer, and not more, Conservative MPs in the 2015-2020 parliament.
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#1402 |
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 7,947
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Quote:
It's just margin of error stuff I suspect.
I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf Does anyone really think that there are any Telegraph readers who have suddenly decided to vote Tory based on today's headlines? At best, these things will serve to encourage readers to make the effort to vote for the party they've always liked best. The undecided might be influenced by reading the front page headlines of papers they don't normally read, or tv news. But the problem with tv news is that it's so tediously 'balanced' these days that there's little room for any new policy to have an impact. Party A announces they'll do X. Party B says it will be a disaster. Party C says Party A and Party B are talking rubbish. Party D says Party A, B and C are running scared, and the media are biased against them. Repeat every day in a slightly different order. |
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#1403 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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Quote:
1983. CON share dropped 1.5% from 1979 but they won 58 more seats. It needed unusual circumstances, but the point is that it can happen
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#1404 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
I am just tired of the delusion and BS in this election - neither of the two largest parties is going to get a majority on their own despite what their respective leaders might say in public and Cameron is not going to get two dozen extra seats on such a reduced share of the vote.
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#1405 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,464
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Quote:
Party A announces they'll do X. Party B says it will be a disaster. Party C says Party A and Party B are talking rubbish. Party D says Party A, B and C are running scared, and the media are biased against them.
Repeat every day in a slightly different order. |
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#1406 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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Quote:
Why doesn't he say "if you don't make me PM, I'm going to make Boris Johnson appear on TV at 8pm every night for five years - on all channels, NAKED!!! Won't that be enough for a majority?
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#1407 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Fair play to their press team for having a sense of humour! Perhaps the Tories will offer everyone a free horse!
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#1408 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 4,684
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Quote:
Whoever gets in, the next five years could be a massive change for all of us. Firstly there's the uncertainty of what a minority Government will bring. Secondly there's the risk of an SNP majority Government at Holyrood. There could ultimately be another Indy Ref. There may also be a rise of English Nationalism, mainly stoked up by The Tories and UKIP. There's the economy, the welfare state, the NHS, there's Trident, there could also be a major Royal Death that will bring some gloomy times and possibly a change of monarch (after all the Queen is 89 years old). This can affect the Nations mood and the public feeling towards the current Government - either positively or negatively depending on how they react. Of course we could also have a Coronation too and maybe Harry might get married too. It is certainly going to be a very interesting 5 years - one of the most unpredictable 5 years in any of our lifetimes.
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#1409 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 15,126
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Quote:
I understand the point you are making - that the national polls include Scotland and, therefore, Labour in England and Wales must be performing a couple of points up to compensate - but what do you mean by the last sentence?
This has been a feature of every general election since 1997. |
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#1410 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,726
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Quote:
I am just tired of the delusion and BS in this election - neither of the two largest parties is going to get a majority on their own despite what their respective leaders might say in public and Cameron is not going to get two dozen extra seats on such a reduced share of the vote.
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#1411 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,464
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Tonight's YouGov:
CON 34% (-1) LAB 35% (+1) LD 9% UKIP 12% GRN 4% (-1) |
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#1412 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Lincs
Posts: 16,192
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Tories and Labour have switched from last night on YouGov.
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#1413 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 4,684
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Normal service resumes!
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#1414 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Ireland
Posts: 857
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It seems nothing can materially change Yougov polls. Be it the Tory SNP threat, any new initiatives released or any controversy, every change in Yougov polls is comfortably within the margin of error.
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#1415 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Scotland
Posts: 2,885
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Quote:
Whoever gets in, the next five years could be a massive change for all of us. Firstly there's the uncertainty of what a minority Government will bring. Secondly there's the risk of an SNP majority Government at Holyrood. There could ultimately be another Indy Ref. There may also be a rise of English Nationalism, mainly stoked up by The Tories and UKIP. There's the economy, the welfare state, the NHS, there's Trident, there could also be a major Royal Death that will bring some gloomy times and possibly a change of monarch (after all the Queen is 89 years old). This can affect the Nations mood and the public feeling towards the current Government - either positively or negatively depending on how they react. Of course we could also have a Coronation too and maybe Harry might get married too. It is certainly going to be a very interesting 5 years - one of the most unpredictable 5 years in any of our lifetimes.
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#1416 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,726
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Take a look at @twittprognosis's Tweet: https://twitter.com/twittprognosis/s...697830913?s=09
You Gov latest seat projection has Labour on 277 and Tories on 270 with SNP and Greens on 50. |
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#1417 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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So how many more polls to go before the election? How many do they have on election week?
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#1418 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,726
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So how many more polls to go before the election? How many do they have on election week?
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#1419 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,914
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Quote:
Tonight's YouGov:
CON 34% (-1) LAB 35% (+1) LD 9% UKIP 12% GRN 4% (-1) ![]() Miliband visiting Brand might be a masterstroke? |
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#1420 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 20,783
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Quote:
Tonight's YouGov:
CON 34% (-1) LAB 35% (+1) LD 9% UKIP 12% GRN 4% (-1) ![]() Miliband, Miliband, Mili, Mili, Mili... Miliband. ![]() Come on you Reds. Get in there!!
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#1421 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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Quote:
1983. CON share dropped 1.5% from 1979 but they won 58 more seats. It needed unusual circumstances, but the point is that it can happen
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It seems nothing can materially change Yougov polls. Be it the Tory SNP threat, any new initiatives released or any controversy, every change in Yougov polls is comfortably within the margin of error.
Also some people enjoy telling a big fib to pollsters. If I was to be asked my vote I would tell them the complete opposite of my true intentions! |
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#1422 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: West Highlands
Posts: 8,011
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I was phone polled during the last election. It wasn't for every poll but something like every third one.
I always told the truth. Didn't see any point in lying. |
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#1423 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 12,914
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Come on you Red Ed!! bring it home baby.
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#1424 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,411
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Quote:
This may be the case but the Labour vote crashed by 9.3% down to a popular vote share of just 27.6% compared to the Tories falling that 1.5% but only to a still hefty 42.4%.
In essence it relies on two parties vote shares both falling. In 1983 the LAB vote share fall meant that even though the CON share was also down there was an effective 3.9% swing to CON. I'm not suggesting that is going to happen this year so far as the CON/LAB battle is concerned, just establishing that it can happen. It may happen in a limited way as between CON and LD. CON may take seats from LD even if the CON vote share was to be less than in 2010 simply because the LD vote share has fallen by much more. |
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#1425 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 4,411
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Quote:
Yes.
![]() Miliband, Miliband, Mili, Mili, Mili... Miliband. ![]() Come on you Reds. Get in there!! ![]()
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