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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 28-04-2015, 19:33
Radiomike
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Parties getting a reduced share of the vote just don't end up getting more seats - it doesn't happen. Based on a lower share of the vote, there will be fewer, and not more, Conservative MPs in the 2015-2020 parliament.
1983. CON share dropped 1.5% from 1979 but they won 58 more seats. It needed unusual circumstances, but the point is that it can happen
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Old 28-04-2015, 19:57
*Sparkle*
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It's just margin of error stuff I suspect.

I'm surprised Labour's housing announcments haven't made an impact in the polls(well yet) tbf
I think with many announcements, they get lost in the noise, and confirmation bias.

Does anyone really think that there are any Telegraph readers who have suddenly decided to vote Tory based on today's headlines? At best, these things will serve to encourage readers to make the effort to vote for the party they've always liked best.

The undecided might be influenced by reading the front page headlines of papers they don't normally read, or tv news. But the problem with tv news is that it's so tediously 'balanced' these days that there's little room for any new policy to have an impact.

Party A announces they'll do X. Party B says it will be a disaster. Party C says Party A and Party B are talking rubbish. Party D says Party A, B and C are running scared, and the media are biased against them.

Repeat every day in a slightly different order.
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Old 28-04-2015, 20:05
TelevisionUser
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1983. CON share dropped 1.5% from 1979 but they won 58 more seats. It needed unusual circumstances, but the point is that it can happen
I am just tired of the delusion and BS in this election - neither of the two largest parties is going to get a majority on their own despite what their respective leaders might say in public and Cameron is not going to get two dozen extra seats on such a reduced share of the vote.
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Old 28-04-2015, 20:08
wizzywick
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I am just tired of the delusion and BS in this election - neither of the two largest parties is going to get a majority on their own despite what their respective leaders might say in public and Cameron is not going to get two dozen extra seats on such a reduced share of the vote.
Why doesn't he say "if you don't make me PM, I'm going to make Boris Johnson appear on TV at 8pm every night for five years - on all channels, NAKED!!! Won't that be enough for a majority?
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Old 28-04-2015, 20:11
Jason C
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Party A announces they'll do X. Party B says it will be a disaster. Party C says Party A and Party B are talking rubbish. Party D says Party A, B and C are running scared, and the media are biased against them.

Repeat every day in a slightly different order.
Unfortunately that's just a reflection of how high the stakes are for the parties in this election and how fine the margins are between them.
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Old 28-04-2015, 20:13
TelevisionUser
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Why doesn't he say "if you don't make me PM, I'm going to make Boris Johnson appear on TV at 8pm every night for five years - on all channels, NAKED!!! Won't that be enough for a majority?
...and on the other side it was free owls for every citizen!
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Old 28-04-2015, 20:24
wizzywick
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Fair play to their press team for having a sense of humour! Perhaps the Tories will offer everyone a free horse!
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Old 28-04-2015, 20:41
pixel_pixel
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Whoever gets in, the next five years could be a massive change for all of us. Firstly there's the uncertainty of what a minority Government will bring. Secondly there's the risk of an SNP majority Government at Holyrood. There could ultimately be another Indy Ref. There may also be a rise of English Nationalism, mainly stoked up by The Tories and UKIP. There's the economy, the welfare state, the NHS, there's Trident, there could also be a major Royal Death that will bring some gloomy times and possibly a change of monarch (after all the Queen is 89 years old). This can affect the Nations mood and the public feeling towards the current Government - either positively or negatively depending on how they react. Of course we could also have a Coronation too and maybe Harry might get married too. It is certainly going to be a very interesting 5 years - one of the most unpredictable 5 years in any of our lifetimes.
You forgot to mention 2 years of uncertainty over the European referendum, the almost certain Tory leadership battle that will come. A stuttering economy and almost certain interest rate rises.
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Old 28-04-2015, 21:53
Phil 2804
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I understand the point you are making - that the national polls include Scotland and, therefore, Labour in England and Wales must be performing a couple of points up to compensate - but what do you mean by the last sentence?
Labour win more marginals than the swing for or against them would imply. It's a combination of boundaries and differential turnout. The Tory vote is heavily concentrated in Southern England but the Labour vote is much more spread out and particularly concentrated in urban conurbations with lots of marginals.

This has been a feature of every general election since 1997.
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Old 28-04-2015, 22:23
Hildaonpluto
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I am just tired of the delusion and BS in this election - neither of the two largest parties is going to get a majority on their own despite what their respective leaders might say in public and Cameron is not going to get two dozen extra seats on such a reduced share of the vote.
I share your frustration.
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Old 28-04-2015, 22:31
Jason C
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Tonight's YouGov:

CON 34% (-1)
LAB 35% (+1)
LD 9%
UKIP 12%
GRN 4% (-1)
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Old 28-04-2015, 22:32
SnowStorm86
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Tories and Labour have switched from last night on YouGov.
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Old 28-04-2015, 22:43
pixel_pixel
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Normal service resumes!
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Old 28-04-2015, 22:52
IrishSpirit
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It seems nothing can materially change Yougov polls. Be it the Tory SNP threat, any new initiatives released or any controversy, every change in Yougov polls is comfortably within the margin of error.
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Old 28-04-2015, 22:53
Ashbourne
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Whoever gets in, the next five years could be a massive change for all of us. Firstly there's the uncertainty of what a minority Government will bring. Secondly there's the risk of an SNP majority Government at Holyrood. There could ultimately be another Indy Ref. There may also be a rise of English Nationalism, mainly stoked up by The Tories and UKIP. There's the economy, the welfare state, the NHS, there's Trident, there could also be a major Royal Death that will bring some gloomy times and possibly a change of monarch (after all the Queen is 89 years old). This can affect the Nations mood and the public feeling towards the current Government - either positively or negatively depending on how they react. Of course we could also have a Coronation too and maybe Harry might get married too. It is certainly going to be a very interesting 5 years - one of the most unpredictable 5 years in any of our lifetimes.
What, like there is now?
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Old 29-04-2015, 00:01
Hildaonpluto
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Take a look at @twittprognosis's Tweet: https://twitter.com/twittprognosis/s...697830913?s=09

You Gov latest seat projection has Labour on 277 and Tories on 270 with SNP and Greens on 50.
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Old 29-04-2015, 00:04
Amanda_Raymond
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So how many more polls to go before the election? How many do they have on election week?
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Old 29-04-2015, 00:10
Hildaonpluto
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So how many more polls to go before the election? How many do they have on election week?
A deluge I imagine on hyper overload feeding both sides anxiety and competitiveness but not sure exactly how many!
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Old 29-04-2015, 00:20
FusionFury
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Tonight's YouGov:

CON 34% (-1)
LAB 35% (+1)
LD 9%
UKIP 12%
GRN 4% (-1)
Labour back in the game!!

Miliband visiting Brand might be a masterstroke?
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Old 29-04-2015, 00:51
Jol44
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Tonight's YouGov:

CON 34% (-1)
LAB 35% (+1)
LD 9%
UKIP 12%
GRN 4% (-1)
Yes.

Miliband, Miliband, Mili, Mili, Mili... Miliband.

Come on you Reds. Get in there!!
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Old 29-04-2015, 03:02
Rich Tea.
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1983. CON share dropped 1.5% from 1979 but they won 58 more seats. It needed unusual circumstances, but the point is that it can happen
This may be the case but the Labour vote crashed by 9.3% down to a popular vote share of just 27.6% compared to the Tories falling that 1.5% but only to a still hefty 42.4%.

It seems nothing can materially change Yougov polls. Be it the Tory SNP threat, any new initiatives released or any controversy, every change in Yougov polls is comfortably within the margin of error.
What I want to know about all these polls is whether each and every single poll that is taken by all the organisations is from a totally new set of the electorate each time or whether some of them return to people they have asked questions of before?

Also some people enjoy telling a big fib to pollsters. If I was to be asked my vote I would tell them the complete opposite of my true intentions!
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Old 29-04-2015, 03:09
carnoch04
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I was phone polled during the last election. It wasn't for every poll but something like every third one.
I always told the truth. Didn't see any point in lying.
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Old 29-04-2015, 07:25
FusionFury
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Come on you Red Ed!! bring it home baby.
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Old 29-04-2015, 08:33
Radiomike
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This may be the case but the Labour vote crashed by 9.3% down to a popular vote share of just 27.6% compared to the Tories falling that 1.5% but only to a still hefty 42.4%.
As I said "It needed unusual circumstances..." and you have highlighted what those circumstances were. However, the point holds true that you can have a falling vote share but increase the number of seats - I was replying to a post which said "It couldn't happen".

In essence it relies on two parties vote shares both falling. In 1983 the LAB vote share fall meant that even though the CON share was also down there was an effective 3.9% swing to CON.

I'm not suggesting that is going to happen this year so far as the CON/LAB battle is concerned, just establishing that it can happen. It may happen in a limited way as between CON and LD. CON may take seats from LD even if the CON vote share was to be less than in 2010 simply because the LD vote share has fallen by much more.
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Old 29-04-2015, 08:35
Radiomike
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Yes.

Miliband, Miliband, Mili, Mili, Mili... Miliband.

Come on you Reds. Get in there!!
And you accuse the Tory posters on here of wetting themselves at the slightest movement in their favour
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