I think that's a good point and it would be such an interesting scenario. I think he would perhaps try that and if, with the support of the Lib Dems, UKIP and the Democratic Unionists he could outvote the Labour/SNP opposition it might even work. But if he tried to govern in a situation where he would be consistently defeated in the commons, it would be a pyrrhic victory and most likely pretty disastrous in the medium term.

If with ld dup ukip cameron can get above 323 seats theres no doubt in my mind he'd make a huge effort to form a government , only in the case of that failing would ed be able to form one with the snp.

That would be an uneasy alliance though. Would Nick Clegg really agree to a European referendum? Would Nigel Farage agree to support a government that didn't offer one?

There's a slight issue with scenario because I saw Yougov's Peter Kellner no longer predicting that it was likely that the Conservatives would emerge as the largest party because the two big parties were neck and neck and that things were too close to call.

Have you got a link for this because I value kellners opinion?

He said it today not sure if it was on Marr or Sky.

That's a valid point because in the past week both YouGov and Mori have published polls with England only voting intention and in both of them Labour were ahead of the Tories. That's crucial because as 2005 showed Labour don't need to win the popular vote in England to win more seats and they are polling better than they did in 2005 in those polls. Add in Wales and its very likely that regardless of Scotland Labour could be the largest party by some distance.

Wasn't Peter Kellner the guy who on the day also predicted the Scottish referendum vote % right?

If I recall correctly, he said it on Dermot Murnaghan's show on Sky News this morning. Then again, he's only effectively repeating what all the polls of polls say, either a dead heat on 33% or on 34%, which will make for a tense election night if neither party manages to pull away.


Yes, this was the same Kellner who went on television at 10:30 pm on the evening of the referendum vote to say that he was 99 percent certain that the Better Together campaign had succeeded and that the vote for independence had been lost. He was spot on (luckily for him and his reputation!).

Written today:


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/19...nd-ground-war/

Thanks for posting that link. Some of those comments in that article are, in effect, an indictment of Lynton Crosby's electioneering tactics. It's also interesting to note from a polling perspective that UKIP support isn't ebbing away and that will also be an ancillary factor in this election.

Ed is looking like a leader, Cameron is looking like a coward running away. The decision not to debate with Miliband and Miliband's 'come and debate with me' have left Cameron looking like a leader lost. Its no wonder voters are starting to take more notice of Ed. If this was a real job interview for an everyday position who looks most eager and ready to you as an employer?

So much for the 'Miliband came over terrible in the debate' posts we had on here last night. Its Cameron who is the loser because of the debates. If Cameron performs anything like he did on Marr this morning on Question Time next then its Labour's election to lose. He was answering questions not asked, ignoring the real questions asked and accusing Miliband of not answering questions which he actually has infact answered. Cameron looks on the brink imho. If I didn't know better I would suggest he has already conceded within his own mind that he has lost.

Fascinating read thanks

But that is a totally different point to your original claim that voting snp helps tories. It patently doesn't -it just means that Labour will need other parties help to govern rather than governing alone. That's a totally different scenario from voting snp helps the tories. It doesn't.

If UKIP get a bigger share of votes than the Liberals, which party is in third place? I take it the Liberals will be.

As ever under FPTP, it's the number of seats that counts

So you can't think of a reason why a democratically elected party's mps shouldn't have a say in the running of the country then?

The point of a majority is you don't need to ask anyone else you can implement your policies.

I'm well aware of that but if Labour fail to secure a majority that's their own fault,it's them that have failed to persuade enough voters..
They should take responsibility for that. The game of blaming the voters for daring to vote snp is pathetic.

Based on the current polls, It'll either be Conservatives and Labour occupying 1st & 2nd places or the other way, SNP in 3rd place, Lib Dems in 4th place, DUP in 5th place and UKIP possibly in 6th place in terms of numbers of seats in the House of Commons. UKIP's national vote share will be higher than the Lib Dems' vote share but the vagaries of the First Past The Post System will ensure that they get far fewer seats.

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The Lib Dems will get more seats that UKIP imo.

definitely

Yep, almost certainly.

Quite likely that Sinn Fein will get more seats than UKIP not that they will take them. The SDLP and Plaid might also equal or edge UKIP in terms of seats.