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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 29-04-2015, 15:55
MattXfactor
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In my mind there was always going to be a final 10 days / week swing back towards the Conservatives which is what very slightly appears to be happening. A week ago I was thinking Miliband and Labour were likely to drop over the line just by a whisker but my gut instinct is telling me that when the crunch comes and reality hits to concentrate people's minds over the next few days then Ed Miliband, despite his decent campaign and improved personal rating will still be seen as unelectable as PM. It cannot be denied that Miliband is costing Labour vital votes that Labour would have won with someone else which in this close election race are absolutely crucial.

The piece with the link a few posts back about various permutations in the election had one described as "No Man's Land" in which no stable government could be formed with the parties both around 260-280 seats, leading to all the leaders going and a new election in the autumn with more credible fresh leadership across the board. As things stand this nightmare scenario rather appeals to me even if it does mean 6 months of chaos before a second election gave us a far better option before the year ends.
Good points, I always thought there would be a late swing too but the polls before recently had me starting to doubt this, but it appears it is happening in some form. I still think there's a reasonable chance the Conservatives will manage to get to 290 seats which could be enough to keep them in government (with LD + DUP support), however I think its on a knife edge and could still go either way, I'd say its literally 50/50 as to who the PM after the election will be but my hunch is the swing back to Cameron may allow him to fall over the line into number 10 although I think it would be an extremely unstable government that could easily result in a 2nd election before the end of the year. I'd be very surprised now if either party got above 300 seats.
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Old 29-04-2015, 15:59
pork.pie
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I pinned the tail on the donkey, and I can reveal that the result was/is/definitely may be won't be... Pirate Party/Monster Raving Loony coalition.

Stop the election, it's over!
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:01
MattXfactor
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I pinned the tail on the donkey, and I can reveal that the result was/is/definitely may be won't be... Pirate Party/Monster Raving Loony coalition.

Stop the election, it's over!
In times like this the best interests of the country have to be put first, we need stable government, therefore the above Pirate Monster Loony coalition appears something that could provide us with a long term economic plan and secure a better future for Britain.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:02
marke09
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 17s18 seconds ago

Sheffield Hallam constituency poll (Ashcroft):
LAB - 37%
LDEM - 36%
CON - 15%
UKIP - 7%
GRN - 4%
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:03
marke09
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 3m3 minutes ago

South Thanet constituency poll (Ashcroft):
CON - 34%
UKIP - 32%
LAB - 26%
GRN - 4%
LAB - 3%
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:06
Hildaonpluto
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Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 17s18 seconds ago

Sheffield Hallam constituency poll (Ashcroft):
LAB - 37%
LDEM - 36%
CON - 15%
UKIP - 7%
GRN - 4%
wow He really IS at risk
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:09
Ellie_Arbuckle
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People are talking about swings back to the Tories yet every poll is within the margin of error something the same posters are very quick to point out each time Labour leads one of them

I also think the Scottish polls are not to be taken too seriously at this point. It seems very hard to believe 20 year old SNP canidates could potentially win over a 20 year long serving Labour MPs.

Apparently admitting you support Labour in Scotland now is almost as bad as admitting you vote Tory so I think Labour will manage to keep at least 10 seats if not more.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:09
marke09
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BuzzFeed UK Politics

@BuzzFeedUKPol

Ladbrokes says a Glaswegian pensioner has just put £30,000 on a Conservative majority government at 7/1.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:12
FusionFury
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BuzzFeed UK Politics

@BuzzFeedUKPol

Ladbrokes says a Glaswegian pensioner has just put £30,000 on a Conservative majority government at 7/1.
Wow.. this will cripple Laddies.. they better pray Miliband scoops it.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:17
Living4Love
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I think Clegg losing his seat really would put an end to the Lib Dems going back in with the Tories in my opinion. I bet Dave is praying Nick wins. What's the betting Kay Burley is in Sheffield for Sky on the night, she will probably storm the stage to get Cleggs instant reaction lol
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:23
marke09
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I think Clegg losing his seat really would put an end to the Lib Dems going back in with the Tories in my opinion. I bet Dave is praying Nick wins. What's the betting Kay Burley is in Sheffield for Sky on the night, she will probably storm the stage to get Cleggs instant reaction lol
She will be with David Cameron Anna Botting will be with Nick C
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:28
Jilly
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I think he will hold on.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:30
Chirpy_Chicken
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I think he will hold on.
me to ,a lot of tories will vote for him
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:39
Sanguinius
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me to ,a lot of tories will vote for him
CCHQ needs to get out there and tell the Conservative base to consider tactical voting to keep Clegg in. I can't see any possible Con/Lib Dem coalition going ahead again without Clegg.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:39
Amanda_Raymond
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Student vote will probably seal Clegg's fate
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:44
Rich Tea.
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Good points, I always thought there would be a late swing too but the polls before recently had me starting to doubt this, but it appears it is happening in some form. I still think there's a reasonable chance the Conservatives will manage to get to 290 seats which could be enough to keep them in government (with LD + DUP support), however I think its on a knife edge and could still go either way, I'd say its literally 50/50 as to who the PM after the election will be but my hunch is the swing back to Cameron may allow him to fall over the line into number 10 although I think it would be an extremely unstable government that could easily result in a 2nd election before the end of the year. I'd be very surprised now if either party got above 300 seats.
Heads it's Cameron - Tails it's Miliband.

That would save so much hot air and brain ache from wondering about the whole thing. Toss a coin for it.

I do wonder what % of genuinely undecided's who intend to vote are out there with a week to go, which could make a decisive shift in either direction.

I've noticed that Sky News has dropped their running opinion poll tracker in the top left of the screen since yesterday which seems rather curious at this stage. I wonder why?
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:46
Ellie_Arbuckle
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Student vote will probably seal Clegg's fate
And there has been a coordinated campaign by students at Sheffield Uni against him for the best part of a year now.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:47
Jilly
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And there has been a coordinated campaign by students at Sheffield Uni against him for the best part of a year now.
Most of them probably will not vote.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:49
Annsyre
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I think Clegg losing his seat really would put an end to the Lib Dems going back in with the Tories in my opinion. I bet Dave is praying Nick wins. What's the betting Kay Burley is in Sheffield for Sky on the night, she will probably storm
the stage to get Cleggs instant reaction lol
Kay Burley is the reason that I will be watching BBC. Her inane witterings are unbearable.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:50
Sanguinius
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I still think Farage will take Thanet South, but only just. I think there is a clear trend especially in some of the marginals that some of the UKIP base is going back to the Conservatives, probably in fear of a left wing government.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:51
Annsyre
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Most of them probably will not vote.
A lot of them probably haven't even registered. There is a huge number of 18 -24 year olds missing from the register.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:54
Sarah777
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me to ,a lot of tories will vote for him
Totally agree with you. Tories will make sure he is elected. Due to the Tories tactical voting more Liberal Democrats will be elected. That is why I laugh when Clegg says he is willing to talk to Labour or Tories. His only red line for Tories is to get him elected.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:55
Ellie_Arbuckle
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Most of them probably will not vote.
You sure? two weeks ago the Sheffied Uni student union spent 3 days making sure students had signed up to vote.
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:55
Rich Tea.
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CCHQ needs to get out there and tell the Conservative base to consider tactical voting to keep Clegg in. I can't see any possible Con/Lib Dem coalition going ahead again without Clegg.
Even if Clegg does cling on in his constituency I think he will be removed by the party within short order after having led them to a trouncing and halving their MP's. The thought that the Lib Dems having been halved in seats and seen a vote collapse yet could still cling on into a coalition and wield any power in those circumstances really feels morally wrong even if the electoral arithmatic allows for it. It would be a disgraceful state of affairs.

This election looks set to produce very many unpalatable outcomes. Democracy eh!
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Old 29-04-2015, 16:59
Annsyre
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You sure? two weeks ago the Sheffied Uni student union spent 3 days making sure students had signed up to vote.
Two weeks ago was the Easter uni vac.
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