Even if he does survive he could have a mutiny on his hands

Well, I've said previously that even if Clegg (as I suspect he will, given it looks as though Cameron will get the popular vote/most seats, and is the sitting PM) moves to form a coalition with Cameron, he'll have to get that through a federal executive committee and parliamentary party. They would have seen on May 8th how their association, fairly on unfairly with the Conservatives (as well as that tuition fee promise, Clegg's own unpopularity) toxify their brand to such an extend they are decimated. And that could well affect LD willingness to get into another coalition.

Apparently tomorrows ipsos Mori poll is a corker - can't link the tweet at no as I'm on mobile - to be unveiled at 8.30 am

I really think this poll shift is purely done to the SNP factor.

One man's corker is another man's outlier

He's no longer as far behind!

Also, it seems that Ashcroft has noticed a pickup in tactical voting of tories for LibDems in Lab/Lib marginals!

BMG Poll - CON 35%, LAB 32%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 14%, GRN 3%
(not sure who they are, or if it's even been reported)

BMG are a market research company who conducted the poll for the New Statesman election site May2015.com.

As it seems to have been the first political poll they've done - certainly around this election - I'd be wary.

Disgraceful behaviour.

I think this corker will be a 5/6% Tory lead. I start to get a strong feeling that the tories are going to win a small majority

The Tories need a 7% lead or more to win a majority - and given that even 7% wasn't enough last time round, it may well that they'll an 8% lead to have a majority. I personally think the 5-6 Conservatives leads are too on the high side, and won't actually come to fruition in an election - I think the Tories high-water mark on May 8th will most likely be a 3-4 point lead over Lab, and that they'll be the largest party in a hung parliament. But if Labour can't even win a majority, then tbh I doubt the Tories will, especially if Ashcroft's marginal polling is correct with a 3% Lab swing. The Tories also have to gain more seats than they currently have, and I think that's quite unlikely.

Everybody has the right to use their vote how they want.

You cannot compare this to last time when Labour could lose all their seats in Scotland.

But they are losing them all to a party who will only support Miliband for PM so they are not totally "lost".

Even Labour losing all their seats in Scotland generally shows projections of the Tories as the largest party in a hung parliament, rather than having a majority - I've yet to see a projection (other than the Ashcroft one on Monday) that shows the Tories gaining 326 seats. It's 302, at most, and on average it seems it'll be 285-295 with Lab between 260-270. And Ashcroft's poll that day would have us believe that UKIP won't have any MPs in the Commons on May 8th, which is extremely unlikely.

The corker Comment is ominous

Who is the poll for? 8:30 misses the papers and most of the morning news show. Seems a strange time to release a poll.

Wow, ComRes have just thrown a spanner in the works - Con and Lab tied, at 35%. I never thought any phone poll (bar MORI) would show a decent position for Labour in the remainder of this campaign.

Latest Comes poll (27 - 28):
CON - 35% (-1)
LAB - 35 (+3)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 6% (+1)

An aspect of human psychology: all polls still showing a statistical dead heat but apparently very soon we have the one true poll from Ipsos-Mori that will show the way.

In fact the outlier is far less likely to be accurate.

"It's a corker". Actually no, it's irrelevant.

That Comres poll very interesting, as tories have had 5 point lead or so in previous ones

Most polls seem to be showing The Tories pretty static at around 34-35% but show Labour either going up or going down like a yoyo. Could the MiliBrand coverage have boosted Labour a little? It could also suggest that more people have pretty much decided to vote Tory but are more uncertain about Labour.

I find this highly, highly unlikely.

How can conducting a poll be disgraceful?

A little behind.. we've known this for ages.