41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail
Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)
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Originally Posted by MattN:
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
I find that somewhat incredible!
Latest YouGov poll (28 - 29 Apr):
CON - 35% (+1)
LAB - 34% (-1)
UKIP - 12% (-)
LDEM - 9% (-)
GRN - 4% (-)
CON - 35% (+1)
LAB - 34% (-1)
UKIP - 12% (-)
LDEM - 9% (-)
GRN - 4% (-)
Originally Posted by oathy:
“The corker Comment is ominous”
“The corker Comment is ominous”
Yea the more i think about it, the more i think it will be a 7/8 & lead for the tories,
Originally Posted by MattN:
“Latest YouGov poll (28 - 29 Apr):
CON - 35% (+1)
LAB - 34% (-1)
UKIP - 12% (-)
LDEM - 9% (-)
GRN - 4% (-)”
“Latest YouGov poll (28 - 29 Apr):
CON - 35% (+1)
LAB - 34% (-1)
UKIP - 12% (-)
LDEM - 9% (-)
GRN - 4% (-)”
Back and forth again, will be swapping around again yet again tommorrow...
Originally Posted by Chirpy_Chicken:
“Yea the more i think about it, the more i think it will be a 7/8 & lead for the tories,”
“Yea the more i think about it, the more i think it will be a 7/8 & lead for the tories,”
Since they trailed this corker, two other polls have had the big two neck and neck. I am not sure how much credence they can put on one poll.
Small Tory lead for YG - could be said to be MOE movement so Lab/Con are tied, but I think this poll probably has it about right; a small Tory lead of 1-2 points.
Originally Posted by MattN:
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
Who are the 41% if there are already 35% and 34% respectively supporting Tory/Labour? 41% of who?
This is very interesting.....supports what I've been thinking for the last couple of weeks or so: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/5...478592/photo/1
Originally Posted by PrincessPerfect:
“This is very interesting.....supports what I've been thinking for the last couple of weeks or so: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/5...478592/photo/1”
“This is very interesting.....supports what I've been thinking for the last couple of weeks or so: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/5...478592/photo/1”
Lets hope the lib dems have some back bone IF needed.
I think all this talk of endless deals will all have been wasted breath
On this day in 2001:
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23
Originally Posted by Meilie:
“On this day in 2001:
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23”
“On this day in 2001:
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23”
Just shows how much the tories uplift at actually vote time and it will most likely happen, hence why i thnk they will now get a small majority.
Originally Posted by MattN:
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
Not me. I voted for a continuation of the current stability over a week ago.
Originally Posted by Chirpy_Chicken:
“Just shows how much the tories uplift at actually vote time and it will most likely happen, hence why i thnk they will now get a small majority.”
“Just shows how much the tories uplift at actually vote time and it will most likely happen, hence why i thnk they will now get a small majority.”
These projections show a gain of 2-4 seats in comparison to polling, which still wouldn't give the Tories a majority under current projections. I'd honestly be very surprised if the Tories got 326 seats.
Originally Posted by Chirpy_Chicken:
“Just shows how much the tories uplift at actually vote time and it will most likely happen, hence why i thnk they will now get a small majority.”
“Just shows how much the tories uplift at actually vote time and it will most likely happen, hence why i thnk they will now get a small majority.”
Lets not forget that the Tories were the opposition in all of those votes. Labour voters stayed at home in 2001 and 2005 when it became obvious that there party was going to win. Then both the Tories and Labour received an uplift in 2010 when young lib dem supporters didn't quite make it to the polls. I'm not trying to make excuses here, just suggesting reasons for why each individual change in final result happened.
Also can I just highlight the issue that we seem to be interchanging GB only and UK wide polling. Basically all the non-N.I. parties will record 1% higher in GB only polls than they do in UK wide ones.
The result given above is GB only. The UK wide result was:
Labour 29%, Tory 36%, Lib Dem 23%
If Labour support had not collapsed in Scotland then maybe that would have added at least 2-3% to their tally in the National Polls and put them slightly ahead of the Tories.
Originally Posted by Meilie:
“On this day in 2001:
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23”
“On this day in 2001:
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23”
Interesting piece of history but those figures do not have the UKIP influence that will make comparisons with previous elections more or less useless
Originally Posted by Meilie:
“On this day in 2001:
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23”
“On this day in 2001:
Lab 50, Con 30, LD 13 (MORI)
Election result:
Lab 40, Con 32, LD 18
On this day in 2005:
Lab 42, Con 29, LD 21 (Populus)
Election result:
Lab 36, Con 33, LD 23
On this day in 2010:
Lab 29, Con 33, LD 28 (YouGov)
Election result:
Lab 30, Con 37, LD 23”
From that with the exception of 2010, Nate Silver's arguement that the incumbent party does better in the polls then on election day seems proven
Originally Posted by oathy:
“Latest Comes poll (27 - 28):
CON - 35% (-1)
LAB - 35 (+3)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 6% (+1)”
“Latest Comes poll (27 - 28):
CON - 35% (-1)
LAB - 35 (+3)
UKIP - 11% (+1)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 6% (+1)”
pretty devastating news for the tories- it ends hopes that there's a trend starting towards them .
Originally Posted by MattN:
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
“41% of voters are still undecided according to Comres/dailymail”
30 to 40 percent of people won't vote - that's why there are so many undecideds!
Originally Posted by PrincessPerfect:
“This is very interesting.....supports what I've been thinking for the last couple of weeks or so: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/5...478592/photo/1”
“This is very interesting.....supports what I've been thinking for the last couple of weeks or so: https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/5...478592/photo/1”
What is Clegg making in that picture which is making Miriam smile?
Originally Posted by marke09:
“This comes poll is a bit iffy as it has the Conservatives ahead of Labour in Scotland”
“This comes poll is a bit iffy as it has the Conservatives ahead of Labour in Scotland”
Labour were only 3 points ahead on the poll earlier today so perhaps not that surprising.
Originally Posted by Chirpy_Chicken:
“I really think this poll shift is purely done to the SNP factor.”
“I really think this poll shift is purely done to the SNP factor.”
Well done Nicola Sturgeon, it seems you've helped Cameron and the Tories stay in power by being so transparent south of the border and gifting the Tories a stick to beat Labour with.
I bet we are going to see polls with 37% and 38% for the Conservatives coming along soon enough.
However, we are being told tonight and I'm listening to a radio discussion stating that their are 10,000,000 undecided voters still to choose who to go for. I don't believe that for a moment. On what basis is this figure being bandied about? If it is true then it would make many of the opinion polls almost meaningless surely?
Originally Posted by Chirpy_Chicken:
“I think this corker will be a 5/6% Tory lead. I start to get a strong feeling that the tories are going to win a small majority”
“I think this corker will be a 5/6% Tory lead. I start to get a strong feeling that the tories are going to win a small majority”
I suppose there is always a "frightener poll" that comes along although I suspect you are right regards the poll lead and who it will be for. But it is worth remembering the history of the 1970 General Election which showed the Labour Party and government of the time with a 12% lead over the Tories a week before that election yet it was the Tories who won with a decent majority of 17.
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