All those seats that the SNP will snatch from Labour are in my own mind what I would describe as "proxy Labour seats" still, because they will stack up behind the Labour block in the end. At least they are not going to be going the other way to the Tories otherwise this General Election would already be over and a done deal for Cameron staying in power. Even if Cameron offered the SNP an independent Scotland by Christmas I don't think they'd be prepared to side with the Tories!

I daresay that's partly why Danny Alexander leaked their cut plans.

As we wait for the result of this supposed "corker" of a poll from Ipsos MORI, it's worth reminding ourselves that all the polls produced in these final days need extra scrutiny because if there is going to be a decisive breakaway from the stalemate - particularly towards the incumbents - then the time for that to happen is now.

On the other hand, if a poll looks like an outlier, it's not going to be any less of an outlier simply because we're this close to polling day.

It's going to be an interesting final week.

Nah I think it's too late for that. The only break away will happen on polling day and won't be caught by any of the opinion polls.

My favourite poll at the moment is the one showing Nick Clegg losing. If I could pick just one MP to lose their seat next week it would have to be Clegg. It would making the Tories staying in government much less likely.

But would there not at least be some indication of it in the polls even a day or two beforehand?

OK, there wasn't in 1992 but polling has changed a lot since then.

It's possible but I just don't think it's likely. The parties have been static now for ages. I can't see what will happen between now and Thursday (or even Wednesday if the polls are conducted 24 hours before publishing) to suddenly change the fortunes of one party.

MORI:
CON 35 (+2)
LAB 30 (-5)
UKIP 10 (-)
LD 8 (+1)
Grn 8 (-)
Oth 9 (+2)

The changes are from the last Ipsos MORI poll taken 15 days ago.

Will alarm bells start to ring at 1 Brewer's Green?

The two percentage point shift from Labour to Others seems a bit peculiar.

Oh dear but that does seem rather high for greens..not really a corke r though

Hardly a corker. Just a poll that probably overstates Greens support by 3% and understates Labour by a similar amount.

We will have to see if other polls follow the trend first but that will still not give the Tories the 23 seats or whatever it is Cameron wants.

Been quite a few 4 /5 point Tory leads recently

Crucially it would probably be enough to keep DC as PM though.

I'd say in reality they are roughly 2-3% ahead now

That's still up one for Labour and down one for the Conservatives since the last GE. Also UKIP is incredibly low compared to other recent polls.

Before anyone gets too carried away (and not for the first time!) by a single poll, I would advise putting the champagne on ice until the regular Panelbase and Populus polls are released later. Neither of those has yet shown a CON lead. The last 3 Populus polls have shown a 2 to 3% LAB lead, the last 3 Panelbase have shown 3%, 1% and 6% LAB leads. I'd caution waiting and seeing whether they show any movement as, coupled with Ipsos MORI, they are the most LAB favourable polls.

Ita a rogue poll I reckon.

A 5 point lead does seem a little high, however most of the polls are now showing a small Tory lead.

what would be the seats based on that poll though

If the next few polls show a similar shift, then it might be real. Until then, file under MOE.

It's all going to be about effectiveness of the vote, rather than total. UNS is dead (well it was in 2010 to be fair), but pollsters and news outlets can't get their heads round this.

Unless something dramatic happens, there will be shift from Con/LD seats to Lab/SNP in total, but the numbers are going to be a mess

I doubt it if the Times story is true. It's a very good poll for the Tories though, and there have been quite a few five point leads for them now. But I agree with others that it's probably overstating green support and understating ukip support

He leaked ideas that were discussed in the past and rejected.

Combined with the latest Scottish polls:

Con 306
Lab 255
Lib Dem 11
SNP 56
Green 1
UKIP 0
Others 21

Just one other thing to mention about that Ipsos MORI poll - it only included people who are 10/10 certain to vote.

True, but if that 1% swing were replicated next Thursday it would only gain LAB around 13 CON seats. By the same token the current 6% LD to CON swing would give CON around 20 LD seats. They'd actually be better off in seat terms even with a very small swing to LAB.

Indeed if there was no swing to LAB at all come election day CON could gain an effective overall majority on the back of gains from LD rather than LAB.

Not likely based on current poll of polls figures but i'm just making the point that CON could win an overall majority without taking any seats from LAB at all (it would just need them not to lose any to them either!!).

The thing about this election is theirs going to be several not just not swing;

Labour to SNP in Scotland.
Lib Dem to Labour in Urban areas and to Con in Rural areas.
Con to Lib in English Marginals.
Con to UKIP in the South. Labour to UKIP in the North.

It's what makes it probably the most unpredictable election ever