I'd agree with that, I said this a while ago to which many UKIP supporters heavily criticised me but I'm still thinking they'll win 2 seats. I'm pretty sure on Carswell holding, and I'm 50/50 on Reckless & Farage but I think they'll edge one of the 2 , other than that I don't see where they are going to win seats? Probably alot of 2nd places.

Based on local polls and surveys around the UK, I'd suggest Sinn Fein 4 no-shows (-1), SDLP 3 MPs (no change), Plaid Cymru 3 MPs (no change), UKIP 4 MPs likely (Rochester & Strood, Thurrock, Clacton & South Thanet) with a few other possibles and DUP 9 (+1).

Whose the candidate in thurrock?

It's a Jackie Doyle-Price (Con - incumbent) vs. Tim Aker (UKIP) contest, in a nutshell.

I know, but how to they decide the order of parties, on the number of seats or the number of votes?

The only thing that counts is the number of parliamentary seats won and not the actual share of the vote when it comes to government formation. The First Past The Post system does throw up anomalies such as in 1951 when Labour got more votes but the Conservatives got more seats (they formed the government) and in February 1974 when the Conservatives got more votes but Labour got more seats and so they formed the government.

Seats, its all about who can command the confidence of 323 seats in the house of commons, so seats = power.

Obviously though having a high vote share is a nice bonus and likely means you have a platform to win more seats in , in the next election.

Yup. If Labour formed the next government with SNP support despite having less seats than the conservatives, would it be the first time in our electoral history that the party with the most seats was in opposition?

That's Farage's view, lots of 2nd places and not many seats. I reckon that their maximum would be five.

Seats.

Nope; take 1923 for example when the Conservatives got 258 seats (out of 615 then), Labour got 191 seats and the Liberals got 158 seats but Labour went on to form a minority government with the assistance of the Liberals so there is already a precedent. Mind you, that particular government only lasted a year before new elections were called.

Incidentally, those two anomaly cases I mentioned earlier only occurred when the parties were very close together in numbers of votes with only a couple of hundred thousand votes separating the two parties.

I think it's 326 for majority. Total 650 MP's.

No votes from the Speaker or Sinn Fein (as they don't turn up), so in practice 323.

Yep I think a lot of UKIP supporters are set to be very disappointed, we shall see but I agree with you 5 seats to me seems the absolute most. I reckon 2-3

Yep as David's pointed out the absolute number is 326 but in practice its 323 (you need 323 to survive a vote of confidence).

That will also apply in the 2015-2020 parliament because Sinn Fein's Francie Malloy (SF - Mid Ulster) confirmed that their MPs (4 likely, 5 possible) won't be taking their places in the House of Commons.

No. The first Labour government, in 1924, was a minority government and the Tories were the largest single party (191 seats vs 258).

Ah thanks for the information.

No - it's more like Labour vs UKIP in Thurrock now based on the polling. It's a pretty working class seat. Doyle Price seems a decent sort but it's not really a seat where Cameron plays well - it's full of families who actually are hard working!

Labour have however picked an ex Miliband media advisor from Highgate called Polly who has worked for the BBC and the Guardian. If they had picked a local person they would probably be clearly ahead.

Thanks. You learn something everyday.

I see what you mean, MARTYM8, but I was thinking of the current MP (now a candidate like all the others) and the likely new MP from 8 May onwards.

It will be almost ironic if UKIP get a higher vote share than the the Lib Dems, yet the Libs get more seats!

not in the slightest.

That will almost certainly happen on 7 May under the current First Past The Post voting system.

I bet the Lib Dems are glad we have first past the post then.