I still think they'd prefer proportional representation though because they'd be set for 59 seats or so on 7 May while UKIP could have been looking at 91 seats.

It is really unfair that UKIP voters could get virtually no parliamentary representation in a democracy with the third largest vote.

Just like it's unfair on the Libs and Green too.

The current system is indeed unfair to those three parties (the Greens would have been looking at a bloc of 32 seats under PR) but even though they're not likely to get a majority, the two largest parties get an artificial boost of 60-70 seats each under the current voting system hence the old system is still with us (turkeys voting for Christmas and all that).

Latest YouGov poll (18 - 19 Apr):
LAB - 35% (-1)
CON - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 13% (-)
LDEM - 8% (-1)
GRN - 5% (-)

the polls arent moving much. i reckon theyll only move in the last few days as the ' undecided ' make up their minds. i think labour have peaked too soon though

UKIP support seems to have dipped over the last month, maybe adding 1% point each to Lab/Con

Nothing quite beats 1983 - the SDP Liberal Alliance won 25 per cent to Labours 27 per cent yet Labour won ten times as many seats (209 vs 23). Labours vote was concentrated whereas the Alliance vote spread more evenly.

That was a disgraceful situation.

UKIP support has been the most variable in recent months up to 17% in one recent poll and down to 10% in an older poll. Overall though, it does currently appear to holding steady at around the 14% mark and so far there's no real sign of any voter haemorrhage to other parties.

It's the one big variable to me in the polls - like the Greens the pollsters struggle to deal with this new factor and have different methodologies to account for it. UKIP won't win the election or many seats - but they may well just decide who does.

I'd agree with that, MARTYM8, and the Greens and UKIP are new players whose support will have an effect on many seats that they won't even win. Quite a bit of Green support appears to come from former Liberal Democrats and Green support itself is holding steady at around 5%-6%.

I know that the LibDems are likely to hold some seats with popular MPs where their policies have not been harmful. I hope Jo keeps her seat but my guess is not so promising.


Did Michael think Labour were ahead in Enfield Southgate in 1997? I think the main parties stuck around 34% mean the PM after the next GE will have the lowest ever share of the vote, and maybe lowest number of votes.


Following Nicola's performance in the first debate, a few people googled whether they can vote SNP in England. Let's suppose the SNP had fielded candidates nationwide. They probably could have fond willing participants from their swollen membership. Could the SNP then have become the largest party at Westminster?


The swing from Labour to SNP could lose enough Labour seats to help the Conservatives remain the largest party, so yes I agree. This could lead to the referendum having been a Cameron masterstroke!


I think just Carswell and Farage, with Reckless of Rochester having been Reckless of Rochester with his short-lived parliamentary career.


I remember that, and 1987 was much the same. Now, they could have less than half the 1983 voteshare but more seats than 1983, as some post-1992 seats are theirs for keeps, such as Eastleigh, Twickenham, Cheadle and Westmoreland & Lonsdale.

And still the SNP are likely to beat The Lib Dems into fourth. Better together, right?

The last minute is my guess, a polling booth has a sobering atmosphere.

A bit of MDF is sobering?

I agree with this. Portillo also mentioned the influence of the SNP. Highly likely to get more seats than the Lib Dems. This makes also makes a Labour controlled government more likely than a Tory one. The polls are not shifting. Time to place yer bets on a Labour government!

It is when you realise you've got to make your choice within it.

Ours are ply, they wheel out the same ones they've had since the 60s I think. Sure I saw an 'I luv Ted Heath' bit of graffiti in one once!............... (OK, I didn't)

I'm expecting the Conservatives to pull away into a sustained opinion poll lead, albeit modest, in the 10 days or week up to the General Election purely based on the idea that in the immediate run up to the election the governing party usually rallies somewhat. Whether it happens this time we will soon be finding out.

I think Labour will do a bit better than the polls suggest, especially in Scotland, the SNP will do far worse than predicted, the LibDems and UKIP I have no idea. Tories will get about what they are polling.

Nice theory, but we've been told the Conservative rally will be coming too many times for it to have any credibility.

What do you base this on?

That's true. Whenever I have hope that our political system can't possible be maintained in the current climate I then remember that the Alliance situation was much worse. 1 in 4 voters choose them yet they were an irrelevance in the new parliament and arguable just helped Thatcher go further than was otherwise possible. If the establishment was able to white-wash that then I don't think it's going to struggle with UKIP getting 13% and the Greens 5%.

Support for the Green party has plummeted among students since the start of the election campaign amid a growing dislike of its leader, an opinion poll has found.
Backing for the Greens on campuses has plunged from 28 per cent in February to just 15 per cent now, enabling the Conservatives to overtake them as the second most popular party among students.

Monthly polling figures from YouthSight, a youth research agency, shows Labour on 35 per cent and the Tories on 25 per cent, both up two percentage points over two months. The Liberal Democrats were on 9 per cent, the Scottish Nationalists 7 per cent and Ukip 6 per cent.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/p...cle4416557.ece

I think that's right. This election reminds me so much of 1992 when neither Neil Kinnock nor John Major were seen as hugely popular leaders. I recall discussing in a pub which party to vote for just a few days before the election and several of us decided then to opt for the status quo.

I think people are keeping quiet about voting Labour in Scotland especially in the central belt. It says much about the SNP and their supporters that many non SNP voters feel too intimidated to say they are not voting for them, much the same way No voters kept quiet in the final weeks of the referendum campaign.

I am sure its not like that in many areas of Scotland... at least I hope not.