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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 03-05-2015, 20:11
TelevisionUser
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With the polls now suggesting UKIP on 15 to 18% nationwide, there are going to be a hell of a lot of disgruntled lablibcon ex-councillors waking up in East Anglia and Kent on Saturday morning. Bye bye, power and wonga (loss of allowances, special allowances). The roots of the Tory party will be destroyed. It's army of leaflet exerts will be no more.
It has only just begun.
^^^ I wouldn't get carried away. That said, in the last 3 out of the 4 most recent polls, I have noticed signs of an increased level of support for UKIP and that might, for example, have implications for close fought contests such as Boston & Skegness and South Basildon & East Thurrock.
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Old 03-05-2015, 20:28
MARTYM8
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^^^ I wouldn't get carried away. That said, in the last 3 out of the 4 most recent polls, I have noticed signs of an increased level of support for UKIP and that might, for example, have implications for close fought contests such as Boston & Skegness and South Basildon & East Thurrock.
Yes - while I would love UKIP to do well on Thursday the FPTP electoral system really works against them. Thurrock is looking very purple and I am hopeful for Thanet but it's going to be tough to win many more in addition to the dead cert of Clacton.

But a Labour and SNP coalition could do wonders for UKIP next time.
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Old 03-05-2015, 20:30
Jakobjoe
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Yes - while I would love UKIP to do well on Thursday the FPTP electoral system really works against them. Thurrock is looking very purple and I am hopeful for Thanet but it's going to be tough to win many more in addition to the dead cert of Clacton.

But a Labour and SNP coalition could do wonders for UKIP next time.
imagine the mess. the voters would pleading with ukip to get in power after a couple of years
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Old 03-05-2015, 20:31
*Sparkle*
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Is that because they think his domineering egotism overshadows the party?
They don't like him because they just think it's too arrogant and generally up himself, and I know they voted against him to become leader in the first place. I get the impression that view is not uncommon.

They aren't in his constituency, so their views on him are irrelevant now, but there's no doubt he divides opinion, and even those who do like him recognise this. It's presumably why he's been kept fairly low profile during the campaigning, but if he gets to Westminster, I'm not sure if they'll be able to ensure he behaves.
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Old 03-05-2015, 20:33
MARTYM8
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imagine the mess. the voters would pleading with ukip to get in power after a couple of years
Yes - and bye bye Cameron too. Perversely I am quite looking forward to the chaos.

Just think of all the late night votes with Labour whips trying to placate Salmond and co, Caroline Lucas, the SDLP, Plaid and Sylvia Hermon to pass every bill. For us political junkies it sounds like heaven!
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:10
radio4extracrap
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Yes - while I would love UKIP to do well on Thursday the FPTP electoral system really works against them. Thurrock is looking very purple and I am hopeful for Thanet but it's going to be tough to win many more in addition to the dead cert of Clacton.

But a Labour and SNP coalition could do wonders for UKIP next time.
You miss the point. I am talking about councils, not parliamentary seats.
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:12
mithy73
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Well if you are right it's looking very good for Ed then. So long as he doesn't have to find a way to work with the SNP anyway . But I suspect a Tory/Lib Dem deal of some kind is far from the realms of fantasy. All the parties are in the business of power and in the game of thrones, you win or you, er, spend long periods in the political wilderness.
But that's the point. For the Lib Dems, at least on the evidence of the past five years, teaming up with the Tories again is neither a 'win' in itself, nor a route to 'winning': it is a road to oblivion.
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:20
PrincessPerfect
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According to the FT, Cameron and Clegg are preparing for coalition talks within hours of Thursday's election, if the Tories (as expected) gain the most seats. I think they are in for a huge surprise when they encounter that their parties' aren't nearly as keen as they are on a renewal of coalition vows...(especially as the LDs will have the lovely experience of dealing with the chair of the 1922 committee in negotiations this time)
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:22
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A number of disruptive posts have been removed from this thread. Please take the time to review our community guidelines and remember to use the red ‘alert’ button to bring posts to our attention. You can also use the "ignore" feature if you have issues with certain members. If the personal attacks don't stop we'll be forced to close this thread all together. Please try and keep it civil. Thank you.
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:27
Rich Tea.
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The Lib Dems want to stay in Europe, as a pro European party. The Conservative Party is offering an EU referendum in which the UK might pull out of the EU. The Labour Party is not offering a referendum on whether we should leave the EU. In that case how come it does not make more sense for the Lib Dems to join with Labour this time rather than trying to negotiate with Cameron to water down a referendum promise? A simple question, I hope!
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:27
CelticMyth
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Is there any real benefit to the Lib Dems going into coalition with Labour either? One would think they would lose most of the more "right wing" Lib Dem vote that has stuck with them and I'm not convinced those that have jumped ship to Labour/SNP/UKIP/Greens will be returning to the Lib Dem fold any time soon.
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:32
tiger2000
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Any polls due tonight?
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:32
Amanda_Raymond
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According to the FT, Cameron and Clegg are preparing for coalition talks within hours of Thursday's election, if the Tories (as expected) gain the most seats. I think they are in for a huge surprise when they encounter that their parties' aren't nearly as keen as they are on a renewal of coalition vows...(especially as the LDs will have the lovely experience of dealing with the chair of the 1922 committee in negotiations this time)
If the Lib Dems lose a lot of seats but not Clegg's, there could be a call for Clegg to go, let's say they lose 30 seats, Clegg will get the blame and there will be calls for resignation
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:33
Amanda_Raymond
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Any polls due tonight?
Just YouGov at 10:30pm
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:33
Rich Tea.
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When were the Conservatives, and for that matter Labour last on the magic 40% mark?
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:34
Chirpy_Chicken
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Where's that from.........
funny guy
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:36
PrincessPerfect
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I don't see any evidence that the remaining LDs are 'right-wing' - looking at the news in the last week, if anything it's to the contrary.
The Lib Dems want to stay in Europe, as a pro European party. The Conservative Party is offering an EU referendum in which the UK might pull out of the EU. The Labour Party is not offering a referendum on whether we should leave the EU. In that case how come it does not make more sense for the Lib Dems to join with Labour this time rather than trying to negotiate with Cameron to water down a referendum promise? A simple question, I hope!
Tbf, the LDs have previously offered a EU ref (I think it was in their 2010 manifesto). Nonetheless, it looks like Clegg has dropped it (opposition to an EU referendum in this election), merely because he is desperate for power - it looks like, from The Guardian report many LDs including Cable certainly aren't happy with it. Therefore I don't see how Clegg can view it as an effective red-line.
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:37
tiger2000
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[quote=Rich Tea.;77922800]Latest new poll shocker;

...

Careful...

http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...postcount=2234
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:40
Tassium
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I think it would be a good idea if the fake poll was edited away.
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:45
Rich Tea.
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I think it would be a good idea if the fake poll was edited away.
I thought I better before reading your plea, so if Chirpy Chicken and Tiger can edit their posts to take my bit away then it will cease to scare anymore. It will make me laugh if it ends up accurate! 4% leads for either main party are causing the jitters at the moment, never mind a double digit lead.

I fully expect a very late swing to the Conservatives though. A 37% would not surprise me at all by Wednesday.
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Old 03-05-2015, 21:55
Amanda_Raymond
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I thought I better before reading your plea, so if Chirpy Chicken and Tiger can edit their posts to take my bit away then it will cease to scare anymore. It will make me laugh if it ends up accurate! 4% leads for either main party are causing the jitters at the moment, never mind a double digit lead.

I fully expect a very late swing to the Conservatives though. A 37% would not surprise me at all by Wednesday.
Perhaps but the latest indication is a swing towards Labour, they now lead in Independents poll of polls where they were trailing by 1 or so last week
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Old 03-05-2015, 22:00
Rich Tea.
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Perhaps but the latest indication is a swing towards Labour, they now lead in Independents poll of polls where they were trailing by 1 or so last week
Because of the closeness of the polling for weeks now I am strongly inclined to think they are not picking up and are not going to pick up what will happen on Thursday with a "ballot box swing" one way or another, likely in the Tory direction. Does anyone else here have a gut instinct they keep feeling about the outcome or a doubt about these polls accuracy?
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Old 03-05-2015, 22:06
TelevisionUser
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According to the FT, Cameron and Clegg are preparing for coalition talks within hours of Thursday's election, if the Tories (as expected) gain the most seats. I think they are in for a huge surprise when they encounter that their parties' aren't nearly as keen as they are on a renewal of coalition vows...(especially as the LDs will have the lovely experience of dealing with the chair of the 1922 committee in negotiations this time)
That is indeed the case, PrincessPerfect, and that article explains that David Cameron and Nick Clegg are preparing for talks on a new Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition within hours of Thursday’s general election, if the Tories win the most seats in a hung parliament. The latest seat projection forecast compiled for the Financial Times gives the Conservatives 274, Labour 270, SNP 54 and the Liberal Democrats at 26.
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Old 03-05-2015, 22:18
MattXfactor
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Because of the closeness of the polling for weeks now I am strongly inclined to think they are not picking up and are not going to pick up what will happen on Thursday with a "ballot box swing" one way or another, likely in the Tory direction. Does anyone else here have a gut instinct they keep feeling about the outcome or a doubt about these polls accuracy?
I don't know if its the polls being inaccurate or not just that the swing won't be uniform and therefore trying to judge the key marginals based on national polls is really tough. I think the Tories will be the largest party in a hung parliament, and I think they may just scrape the seats they need to be able to go back into coalition (obviously this rides on whether they can agree a coalition).

I do think there will be a swing to the Tories late on though, I still expect them to be at least 2-3% ahead on polling day.
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Old 03-05-2015, 22:18
mithy73
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Because of the closeness of the polling for weeks now I am strongly inclined to think they are not picking up and are not going to pick up what will happen on Thursday with a "ballot box swing" one way or another, likely in the Tory direction. Does anyone else here have a gut instinct they keep feeling about the outcome or a doubt about these polls accuracy?
I doubt all the polls' accuracy, and wouldn't discount a late swing in any direction. On the other hand, though, I don't trust gut-instinct, hunches and the like either. Still, only four days left to wait.
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