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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2226 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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Quote:
With the polls now suggesting UKIP on 15 to 18% nationwide, there are going to be a hell of a lot of disgruntled lablibcon ex-councillors waking up in East Anglia and Kent on Saturday morning. Bye bye, power and wonga (loss of allowances, special allowances). The roots of the Tory party will be destroyed. It's army of leaflet exerts will be no more.
It has only just begun. |
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#2227 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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Quote:
^^^ I wouldn't get carried away. That said, in the last 3 out of the 4 most recent polls, I have noticed signs of an increased level of support for UKIP and that might, for example, have implications for close fought contests such as Boston & Skegness and South Basildon & East Thurrock.
But a Labour and SNP coalition could do wonders for UKIP next time. |
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#2228 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: deploRable town centre
Posts: 6,223
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Yes - while I would love UKIP to do well on Thursday the FPTP electoral system really works against them. Thurrock is looking very purple and I am hopeful for Thanet but it's going to be tough to win many more in addition to the dead cert of Clacton.
But a Labour and SNP coalition could do wonders for UKIP next time. the voters would pleading with ukip to get in power after a couple of years
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#2229 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 7,947
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Is that because they think his domineering egotism overshadows the party?
They aren't in his constituency, so their views on him are irrelevant now, but there's no doubt he divides opinion, and even those who do like him recognise this. It's presumably why he's been kept fairly low profile during the campaigning, but if he gets to Westminster, I'm not sure if they'll be able to ensure he behaves. |
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#2230 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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Quote:
imagine the mess.
the voters would pleading with ukip to get in power after a couple of yearsJust think of all the late night votes with Labour whips trying to placate Salmond and co, Caroline Lucas, the SDLP, Plaid and Sylvia Hermon to pass every bill. For us political junkies it sounds like heaven! |
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#2231 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 2,868
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Quote:
Yes - while I would love UKIP to do well on Thursday the FPTP electoral system really works against them. Thurrock is looking very purple and I am hopeful for Thanet but it's going to be tough to win many more in addition to the dead cert of Clacton.
But a Labour and SNP coalition could do wonders for UKIP next time. |
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#2232 |
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Well if you are right it's looking very good for Ed then. So long as he doesn't have to find a way to work with the SNP anyway . But I suspect a Tory/Lib Dem deal of some kind is far from the realms of fantasy. All the parties are in the business of power and in the game of thrones, you win or you, er, spend long periods in the political wilderness.
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#2233 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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According to the FT, Cameron and Clegg are preparing for coalition talks within hours of Thursday's election, if the Tories (as expected) gain the most seats. I think they are in for a huge surprise when they encounter that their parties' aren't nearly as keen as they are on a renewal of coalition vows...(especially as the LDs will have the lovely experience of dealing with the chair of the 1922 committee in negotiations this time)
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#2234 |
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Forum Administrator
Join Date: Feb 2000
Posts: 12,570
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A number of disruptive posts have been removed from this thread. Please take the time to review our community guidelines and remember to use the red ‘alert’ button to bring posts to our attention. You can also use the "ignore" feature if you have issues with certain members. If the personal attacks don't stop we'll be forced to close this thread all together. Please try and keep it civil. Thank you.
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#2235 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
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The Lib Dems want to stay in Europe, as a pro European party. The Conservative Party is offering an EU referendum in which the UK might pull out of the EU. The Labour Party is not offering a referendum on whether we should leave the EU. In that case how come it does not make more sense for the Lib Dems to join with Labour this time rather than trying to negotiate with Cameron to water down a referendum promise? A simple question, I hope!
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#2236 |
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Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 2,848
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Is there any real benefit to the Lib Dems going into coalition with Labour either? One would think they would lose most of the more "right wing" Lib Dem vote that has stuck with them and I'm not convinced those that have jumped ship to Labour/SNP/UKIP/Greens will be returning to the Lib Dem fold any time soon.
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#2237 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Stoke-On-Trent
Posts: 7,158
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Any polls due tonight?
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#2238 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Quote:
According to the FT, Cameron and Clegg are preparing for coalition talks within hours of Thursday's election, if the Tories (as expected) gain the most seats. I think they are in for a huge surprise when they encounter that their parties' aren't nearly as keen as they are on a renewal of coalition vows...(especially as the LDs will have the lovely experience of dealing with the chair of the 1922 committee in negotiations this time)
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#2239 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Quote:
Any polls due tonight?
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#2240 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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When were the Conservatives, and for that matter Labour last on the magic 40% mark?
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#2241 |
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Sheffield
Posts: 1,470
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Where's that from.........
funny guy
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#2242 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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I don't see any evidence that the remaining LDs are 'right-wing' - looking at the news in the last week, if anything it's to the contrary. Quote:
The Lib Dems want to stay in Europe, as a pro European party. The Conservative Party is offering an EU referendum in which the UK might pull out of the EU. The Labour Party is not offering a referendum on whether we should leave the EU. In that case how come it does not make more sense for the Lib Dems to join with Labour this time rather than trying to negotiate with Cameron to water down a referendum promise? A simple question, I hope!
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#2243 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Stoke-On-Trent
Posts: 7,158
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[quote=Rich Tea.;77922800]Latest new poll shocker;
... Careful... http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showp...postcount=2234 |
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#2244 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: It's Grim
Posts: 24,412
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I think it would be a good idea if the fake poll was edited away.
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#2245 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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I think it would be a good idea if the fake poll was edited away.
I fully expect a very late swing to the Conservatives though. A 37% would not surprise me at all by Wednesday. |
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#2246 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Quote:
I thought I better before reading your plea, so if Chirpy Chicken and Tiger can edit their posts to take my bit away then it will cease to scare anymore. It will make me laugh if it ends up accurate! 4% leads for either main party are causing the jitters at the moment, never mind a double digit lead.
I fully expect a very late swing to the Conservatives though. A 37% would not surprise me at all by Wednesday. |
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#2247 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Newport Pagnell
Posts: 21,358
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Perhaps but the latest indication is a swing towards Labour, they now lead in Independents poll of polls where they were trailing by 1 or so last week
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#2248 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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Quote:
According to the FT, Cameron and Clegg are preparing for coalition talks within hours of Thursday's election, if the Tories (as expected) gain the most seats. I think they are in for a huge surprise when they encounter that their parties' aren't nearly as keen as they are on a renewal of coalition vows...(especially as the LDs will have the lovely experience of dealing with the chair of the 1922 committee in negotiations this time)
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#2249 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
Because of the closeness of the polling for weeks now I am strongly inclined to think they are not picking up and are not going to pick up what will happen on Thursday with a "ballot box swing" one way or another, likely in the Tory direction. Does anyone else here have a gut instinct they keep feeling about the outcome or a doubt about these polls accuracy?
I do think there will be a swing to the Tories late on though, I still expect them to be at least 2-3% ahead on polling day. |
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#2250 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Quote:
Because of the closeness of the polling for weeks now I am strongly inclined to think they are not picking up and are not going to pick up what will happen on Thursday with a "ballot box swing" one way or another, likely in the Tory direction. Does anyone else here have a gut instinct they keep feeling about the outcome or a doubt about these polls accuracy?
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the voters would pleading with ukip to get in power after a couple of years
