This is the main and only point, in the end there are so many variables to this election. SNP, UKIP, Greens, the Milliband-factor, the right-wing press pushing for the Tories, I have no idea how things are going to go, Lib-dems possible collapse. A sudden shift from one of the minor parties to Lab or Con can change everything.

Cameron and Clegg can negotiate from 10pm on Thursday night as much as they like but if these figures proved to be accurate they'd be wasting their time, and the nation's because it would be a shoe in for a minority Labour Government at the very least without question. Even Tory and Lib Dem seats would not equal the amount the Tories alone got last time.

Clegg should wait to see if he's still an MP on Friday before he prepares for any talks...

The press will throw the kitchen sink at Miliband this week to try and get Dave his 23 seats but that would suggest he would need to be polling 40% by Thursday.

Will be interesting to see if that figure is near or whether events go against them ?

It does appear that the Conservatives might indeed get a kick in the Thurrocks (both of them!).


I am afraid that there is currently nothing to substantiate that in the polls for either of the two biggest parties - it's still gridlock. The only detectable thing in the most recent polls is a modest rise of a couple of percentage points in support for UKIP.

Tonight's YouGov:

CON 34% (-)
LAB 33% (-)
LD 9% (+1)
UKIP 12% (-1)
GRN 5% (-)

It's also worth mentioning that Peter Kellner updated his seats forecast today:

Con 283
Lab 261
Lib Dem 32
SNP 50
UKIP 2
Green 1
Others 21

You wonder why you gov bother and the Sun waste their money. It's been margin of error stuff for a month.

I think that's all we are getting until Tuesday, guys. We aren't getting any polls on Bank Holiday Monday.

I wonder if the actual campaign has made any difference whatsoever. The polls have basically been static throughout.

...but we will get plenty of royal baby name speculation instead.

Seriously, the royal baby news has meant that no one's concentrating on the attack pieces in the various newspapers because it's not front page material for now.

I think the most likely swing, if any, will be from UKIP to the Conservatives. If UKIP pollsters get cold feet and consider voting for them will make it easier for a Left Wing Coalition to take control they may 'X' the Conservatives in the ballot box. I think that's the only variable that the polls haven't taken into account. I personally think there will be a small swing but not to the extent required for the Conservatives to make an impact. I'm still sticking with my Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition with 'unofficial' SNP support though will also propose a possible Labour minority government propped up by the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

If you take the polls at face value (a big if) then 283 seats would be at the very top end of the tories likely range. I think 270 is much more reasonable.

Though I think every man and his dog is assuming that the Tory vote is being underestimated, also the UKIP vote is highly likely to recede in the marginals. So 285 is the right figure under those assumptions.

If the SNP wipes out Labour they will be lucky to not lose seats.

All this time and effort plus money spent with polls and a General Election campaign for absolutely nothing to change.

Regarding the disaffected Lib Dems who will vote elsewhere, is there a perceived thinking about what percentage will break for Labour and Conservative? Common sense says the majority will end up with Labour surely? So on the face of it a Lib Dem collapse is more good news for the Labour Party and its chances.

The bulk have already chosen and you can see the split in the polls. Surprisingly high number went for UKIP but labour obviously took the most.

If you mean the existing 2010 voters who are undecided, if think they will stick with the party in Tory marginals and vote Labour elsewhere.

Libs Soaring...again

Am I the only one looking forward to the Post election fun and games?.

I actually want the result to be as tight as possible

Me also. I'm looking forward to how it will go, who will deal with who, who Nick Clegg will get sacked.

Any one else watch Sixty Years of Swing tonight - very interesting looking back at the way BBC has covered election night

What's the point if YouGov and the Sun conducting polls everyday for five years?

Kellner going on and on about their being a swing to The Tories, he should pay notice to other polls like Survation, not just his own

Peter Kellner says there has been a descisive shift towards the tories.. they are projected to have reached the dizzying heights of.. wait for it.. 283 seats ! That's not about to propel Cameron into Downing street is it !

and if it's indeed true that Clegg is once again prepared to jump into bed with the Tories, after what they have been slinging at each other throughout the campaign would it not just show once and for all that indeed he does lack any principles? and anyway do we think that the rank and file Lib Dems would support him?

Hmm no I think you have got the basics wrong because you're assuming they would sacrifice 5 years in power on the basis of an academic assumption that thereafter they'd fall into the abyss. That prophecy wouldn't be inevitable, and I think the Lib Dems would choose power if an appropriate compromise could be reached. Power is their raison d'etre. Why be in politics if, when you get the chance to make a real difference, you turn it down?

Interesting piece in the economist recently saying that the big two parties have been too predictable in this campaign and that this is why the polls have been so static.

Labour are firmly the party of the working people and conservatives the aspirational wealthy. Neither have attempted any concessions into the middle ground to pick up voters from either side. Blair did it in 1997 and the Tories in 79.

If the Tories had been a bit more centrist and entertained ideas of cutting down on rich non doms or Labour had promoted fiscal caution and encouraged big business then either one could have easily got a majority.

But no one wants to compromise and as such it is stagnant. Even more surprising is the vacuum left in the middle ground by the lib dems collapse means a centrist move should be easy.

The thing is we are getting carried away with national polls when we should be looking at marginal seats. Lord Ashcroft is doing some but he has been wrong in the pass.