We have Tom Greatrix who is a good local MP, so I can't see him losing his seat.

Mmmmmm, according to the Electoral Calculus that one is tight with SNP slightly ahead.

does anyone fancy a just for fun competition to guess the seats and another for share of vote - prepared to set it up but wanted to know if it would be good or not

Shetland wont be anywhere close to falling to the SNP. They're quite anti-SNP on that rock.

Maybe just wishful thinking on my part.

yeah go for it I'd enter!!

^^^ I second that and all non-polling matters can be (calmly and politely) discussed in this equally good thread here: General Election 2015 Discussion Thread

Russell Brand has come out and urged voters to vote for the Labpur Party

This point has actually been raised by some Labour MPs. Irrespective of numbers, if Milliband has less seats (and of course less votes, that's in the bag) how does he have legitimacy?

It's not an academic assumption; it's true. They've gone from a high of 30% in the polls in April 2010, 23% in GE 2010, to polling an average of 8% in the opinion polls, losing many of their local government councilors (in a way the Conservatives simply have not), members, will be decimated come Thursday, and most of all, to the electorate the LDs have lost their identity; no one really knows what on earth they stand for anymore, and - not necessarily fairly, but still - they have come to symbolically represent distrust in politics, Clegg in particular.

I don't see how another coalition with the Conservatives doesn't worsen those issues - particularly one of identity for the LDs. And tbh it's questionable if the LDs would actually be gaining power, or simply the status of being a part of government. Because five years later the LDs despite having all that 'power', they have very little to say - or indeed, show for their time in office. And that has been part of their issue in the first place - because they have not been able visibly demonstrate their influence on government polices, they haven't been able to retain their identity, and because of that have lost support. This is why, I suspect that LDs want exceptional terms this time - because they need those terms to have something to show for their time in power, if they were to enter in coalition again and actually gain something from being in government.

The trouble is, I suspect that the LD leadership at this stage genuinely want power for power's sake (Clegg, Alexander, Laws). And on that journey they appear to be forgetting that they have to carry their party with them...and it feels like a group of Orange Bookers who are ideologically closer to the Conservatives than they are to Labour are attempting to re-position the party in the centre (and may even centre-right tbh) without the consent of LDs party members, activists, councilors, and MPs who all lean more towards the centre-left. If Clegg was a more popular, and dare I say it - credible figure, maybe he could have a chance of achieving this. But he isn't, and this is why with the 1922 Committee involved in negotiations, and with his own party to face, I think he's going to face reality very soon.

That clinches it then.

But how many of his followers are actually registered to vote - as just recently he was telling people voting was a waste of time?

Any new polls - any polls showing any movement beyond the margin of error.

Is this 1992 again - and are the Tories going to win as some are suggesting as all us those Kippers are so scared of Nicola that they are running back to the loving arms of Dave (who as we know secretly despises them).

This has been explained many times. Under the constitution its the party which can command a majority that is asked to form the government. So if Ed can command a majority that is larger than the Tories, Dave would be advised (a nice way of saying your out) to tell the Queen to ask Ed to form the next government. This is what Brown did in 2010 when he finally bit the bullet and admitted defeat.

Something tells me though that Dave will cling on with everything he has until the very last moment if this is the outcome.

That's sealed it for the Tories, then.

Didn't he say "don't vote"? Getting his messages mixed, I think.

Don't think we'll get any polls today apart from many yougov because of bank holiday, not sure about tomorrow but i know Guardian are doing one on Weds

A bit like Ted Heath in February, 1974 (for the older readers)

Officially yes but it would be a hard sell to alot of the public and potentially damaging in the long term

It really won't be because that's the constitution and its happened in the past. This is UK democracy. We aren't in Russia.

Why do you think the majority of the public wouldn't like it (as they wouldn't have voted Conservative), and in what way would it be damaging, and to what?

The opinion polls (to keep the comment on topic) are saying that a Labour / SNP "alliance" is a likely outcome, so it must surely be such an easy sell that the public are buying it.

You Gov tonight

You Gov Ashcroft and Populus tomorrow

7 polls due Wednesday

1 early Thursday morning

Yeah I saw there's one Thursday morning which will be a poll of people who have actually voted.

Political betting is always a great source of information - and poll leaks/results on election night before the broadcasters are able to announce them.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/ind...n-expect-them/

Monday
you gov

Tuesday
Ashcroft phone
Populus online
You gov (we assume)

Wednesday
ComRes phone
ICM Phone
Survation online
Panelbase online
YouGov online
Opinium online
TNS online

Thursday post midnight
Ipsos MORI phone

Not sure
BMG online

In 2010 the position was quite different - Labour were second in seats by 48 and second in votes by 7%. The arithmetic by any stretch of the imagination didn't add up for Labour and certainly not against the likelihood of a CON/LD coalition.

There isn't quite the clear cut "constitution" in existence here that you imagine. Also, the legitimacy issue is partly about numbers but it is also partly about perception.

One possibility being mooted is that if David Cameron was well ahead of Labour in terms of seats and ahead in votes, and that if a combination of CON + LD + Unionists + UKIP came close to a majority, he could stay in power, put forward a Queen's speech and effectively invite/dare the Opposition (essentially Labour) to vote it down. Labour would then have a big decision to make. In 1974 Ted Heath's Conservatives abstained in similar circumstances when Labour presented a Queen's speech which they could not win if everyone else voted against it. However, that might have forced a second election in those days which is not the case now.

Whether he would actually follow that course is open to question - I suspect he would need at least a 30 seat lead over Labour, probably around 300 seats himself, and the tacit support of the Lib Dems and Unionists to even think about it.

Nonetheless it is one of the myriad of possibilities that will be under discussion on Friday if the results are as the polls predict.

Last election apparently Ipsis predicted a Tory majority, they got that wrong

Are we talking postal voters here?

The election is going to be a big test of the pollsters - will the established old timers like MORI and ICM be right or will the new kids on the block like populus, Survation and panelbase be right?