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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2351 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
Posts: 9,623
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Quote:
Are we talking postal voters here?
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#2352 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 3,125
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Quote:
or maybe outside polling stations at 7 see how the early voters have voted - dont know how they would know who voted by post
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#2353 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,361
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Yeah there is definitely one pollster doing a survey of people that have voted on Thursday I'm sure I read it somewhere, so that should be a good indicator of what the exit poll %s may look like.
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#2354 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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...... and is it even legal to publish a poll after polls open.
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What does the law actually state on the publication of exit polls? http://www.inbrief.co.uk/media-law/p...-polls-law.htm
The Representation of the People Act 2002 inserted a section 66A into the initial 1983 of the same name and this read as follows. It is a criminal offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted.' Not only statements and statistics but also making forecasts based on exit polls, constitute an offence. The 2002 Act specifically makes it an offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any forecast – including any estimate – of that election result, if the forecast is based on exit poll information from voters, or which might reasonably be taken to be based on it. These laws apply to both Parliamentary and local elections, elections to the Welsh Assembly and to by-elections. The 2002 Act applies both to exit polls conducted to focus on voting in a particular constituency or ward and to voting patterns nationally. Furthermore, the publication of exit polls is also prohibited during voting for European Parliamentary elections. What happens if an exit poll, or forecast based on an exit poll, is published before voting closes? In this case then under section 66a, the publisher concerned would be liable to a fine of up to £5,000 or even a jail term of up to six months. What controls do the regulatory codes of broadcasters place on the publication of exit polls? The Ofcom Broadcasting Code (which forms part of the BBC Editorial Guidelines) states: 'No opinion poll may be published on the day of the election until the polls close, or in the case of the European election, all the polls have closed across the European Union.' |
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#2355 |
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Join Date: May 2013
Location: Caught Somwehere In Time
Posts: 381
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We have Tom Greatrix who is a good local MP, so I can't see him losing his seat.
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#2356 |
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Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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Quote:
So it will be a survey of postal voters - otherwise what is the point and is it even legal to publish a poll after polls open. The BBC and Sky etc wouldn't be able to publish it - so why bother?
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#2357 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Ipsos-MORI always release their final poll in the Standard on the morning election day. Fieldwork finishes the previous evening.
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#2358 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Cameron keeps going on about how he only needs to win 23 seats yet the projections have him losing over 20 seats so he really needs to win over 40.
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#2359 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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ICM constituency poll for Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam seat due out for the Guardian later
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#2360 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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Quote:
Cameron keeps going on about how he only needs to win 23 seats yet the projections have him losing over 20 seats so he really needs to win over 40.
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#2361 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
ICM constituency poll for Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam seat due out for the Guardian later
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#2362 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
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Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 46s46 seconds ago South East, England
At 10pm Thursday EXIT POLL by GfkNOP/@IpsosMORI for @SkyNews @BBCNews @itvnews & @YouGov Election Day Poll looks from that that YouGov are doing their own exit poll |
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#2363 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories
David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed. The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons. There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock. This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos. |
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#2364 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories
David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed. The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons. There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock. This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos. |
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#2365 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,726
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Quote:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories
David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed. The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons. There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock. This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos. |
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#2366 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
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And it will be chaotic until the Queens Speech vote (which would be likely to be lost), and the ensuing no confidence motion.
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I suspected as much -pretty desperate and undignified is our Prime Minister I feel.
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#2367 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 9,704
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Quote:
Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 46s46 seconds ago South East, England
At 10pm Thursday EXIT POLL by GfkNOP/@IpsosMORI for @SkyNews @BBCNews @itvnews & @YouGov Election Day Poll looks from that that YouGov are doing their own exit poll |
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#2368 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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I suspected as much -pretty desperate and undignified is our Prime Minister I feel.
Anyway, he might be able to stay anyway if he gets around 40 more seats than Labour - which isn't an impossibility. I'll be glad when it's all over. |
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#2369 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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everyone especially the media seem to be fixated with what is going to happen after the election than the election itself - lets see what the voters say and take it from there - could be a lot of people with egg on their faces friday if the public vote against the way the polls are telling them they will vote
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#2370 |
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Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,459
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Cameron gets first dibs at trying to form a government so I don't see the issue here if he has most votes and seats.
If they have most seats then they should try to do a deal with the Lib Dems and DUP and then put forward a Queen Speech. Try and dare Labour and the SNP to vote it down, if they do then they could be real damage for those involved with the general public because they brought a government down. Some Lab MP's are bound to rebel against the leadership, there is already rumbling concerns of legitimacy if Labour do come second in seats. If Labour has most seats then Cameron has no choice but to immediately resign and let Labour get a shot at it. |
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#2371 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 23,726
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Quote:
Is it? I see it as him trying to protect the Union from demands of the SNP because in his eyes they are intent in breaking away from it.
Anyway, he might be able to stay anyway if he gets around 40 more seats than Labour - which isn't an impossibility. I'll be glad when it's all over. |
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#2372 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Storbritannia
Posts: 28,930
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Quote:
ICM constituency poll for Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam seat due out for the Guardian later
Quote:
Should be interesting. We'll see if Cleggy has made up any ground.
In other polling news, Lord Ashcroft has also released details of the local poll for the constituency of Norwich North: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/norwich-north-2/ |
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#2373 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Quote:
As respected political columnist Steve Richards Said today it's a myth that the SNP's increased strong presence in the House of Commons is only going to be an issue under Labour.An absolute myth.The SNP will be problematic for the tories too in a tight parliament it just suits the tory press not to highlight it.
I really wish though, it was going to be a majority of one or the other because then, come Saturday, we can just get on with things and not mention a General Election again until 2020! |
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#2374 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Quote:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories
David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed. The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons. There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock. This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos. He has good reason to do so. As things stand, if we're looking at something in the realms of C 280 L 262 LD 26 SNP 55 DUP 9 SF 5 SDLP 3 PC 3 UKIP 3 G 1 RES 1 Ind 1 Speaker 1 (Ladbrokes GB / William Hill NI favourites to win, as of 1 May), and if we're to take at face value the various political statements made on the subject of coalitions, we have as possible coalition configurations: C-LD coalition For: C (280), LD (26) - Total 306 Against: L (262), SNP (55), SDLP (3), PC (3), UKIP (3), G (1), RES (1) - Total 328 Abstain: DUP (9), SF (5), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 16 C-DUP-UKIP coalition For: C (280), DUP (9), UKIP (3) - Total 292 Against: L (262), LD (26), SNP (55), SDLP (3), PC (3), G (1), RES (1) - Total 351 Abstain: SF (5), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 7 L-LD-SDLP coalition For: L (262), LD (26), SDLP (3) - Total 291 Against: C (280), DUP (9), UKIP (3), RES (1) - Total 293 Abstain: SNP (55), SF (5), PC (3), G (1), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 65 L-LD coalition For: L (262), LD (26) - Total 288 Against: C (280), UKIP (3), RES (1) - Total 284 Abstain: SNP (55), DUP (9), SF (5), SDLP (3), PC (3), G (1), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 78 Assumptions: * C will not coalesce with anyone but LD, DUP, UKIP * L will not coalesce with anyone but LD and SDLP * Nationalists/Greens will vote against any C-led coalition * Nationalists/Greens will abstain on a vote on any L-led coalition * DUP will abstain if not in coalition, unless that coalition contains Nationalists * SF will maintain their abstentionist policy and not vote * UKIP will vote against any non-UKIP coalition * George Galloway will vote against everyone On those numbers and those assumptions, only a L-LD coalition would gain the confidence of the House - and that only on a knife-edge, vulnerable to by-election defeats and dependent on support or abstentions from "friendly" or "semi-friendly" Opposition members. (What's happened to the list tag?) |
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#2375 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: In the red mist
Posts: 19,787
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The issue isn't that Cameron will get first chance to form a government, it's that he'll attempt to cling power regardless of whether his government can actually pass laws or not.
As has been said before this Con-LD-DUP-Ukip coalition which Cameron seems intend to form to stay in power seems fanticful; because it seems incredibly unlikely Clegg will be able to convince his party to go into a coalition with three right-wing parties, including a Tory Right deeply resentful at LD 'influence' in the last five years. As for Labour and the SNP voting down the Queen's Speech - why not? Surely it is up to Cameron to get a majority and not for Labour to prop up his government so that he doesn't look bad? The SNP will, for sure vote down the Queen's Speech - they've nothing to lose from that either. Cameron will find even if a Queen's Speech does go through a government held hostage by a large right-wing bloc of the Conservative Right, UKIP, and the DUP is beyond his control and he'll have serious issues regarding controlling his own party, and passing laws in any case. |
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