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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 04-05-2015, 14:08
marke09
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Are we talking postal voters here?
or maybe outside polling stations at 7 see how the early voters have voted - dont know how they would know who voted by post
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Old 04-05-2015, 14:09
MattXfactor
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or maybe outside polling stations at 7 see how the early voters have voted - dont know how they would know who voted by post
Yeah there is definitely one pollster doing a survey of people that have voted on Thursday I'm sure I read it somewhere, so that should be a good indicator of what the exit poll %s may look like.
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Old 04-05-2015, 14:17
MARTYM8
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Yeah there is definitely one pollster doing a survey of people that have voted on Thursday I'm sure I read it somewhere, so that should be a good indicator of what the exit poll %s may look like.
So it will be a survey of postal voters - otherwise what is the point and is it even legal to publish a poll after polls open. The BBC and Sky etc wouldn't be able to publish it - so why bother?
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Old 04-05-2015, 14:30
mossy2103
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...... and is it even legal to publish a poll after polls open.
It isn't:

What does the law actually state on the publication of exit polls?

The Representation of the People Act 2002 inserted a section 66A into the initial 1983 of the same name and this read as follows. It is a criminal offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted.'

Not only statements and statistics but also making forecasts based on exit polls, constitute an offence. The 2002 Act specifically makes it an offence 'to publish, before a poll is closed, any forecast – including any estimate – of that election result, if the forecast is based on exit poll information from voters, or which might reasonably be taken to be based on it.

These laws apply to both Parliamentary and local elections, elections to the Welsh Assembly and to by-elections. The 2002 Act applies both to exit polls conducted to focus on voting in a particular constituency or ward and to voting patterns nationally. Furthermore, the publication of exit polls is also prohibited during voting for European Parliamentary elections.


What happens if an exit poll, or forecast based on an exit poll, is published before voting closes?


In this case then under section 66a, the publisher concerned would be liable to a fine of up to £5,000 or even a jail term of up to six months.

What controls do the regulatory codes of broadcasters place on the publication of exit polls?

The Ofcom Broadcasting Code (which forms part of the BBC Editorial Guidelines) states: 'No opinion poll may be published on the day of the election until the polls close, or in the case of the European election, all the polls have closed across the European Union.'
http://www.inbrief.co.uk/media-law/p...-polls-law.htm
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Old 04-05-2015, 14:31
Wolfie_Smith
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We have Tom Greatrix who is a good local MP, so I can't see him losing his seat.
Ah you must stay in the neck of the woods where I grew up. I'm a Rutherglen lad. It's one seat where you could put red rosette on a turd and it would win lol. Seriously though, given the majority he and his predecessor have enjoyed, I doubt he's in trouble unfortunately. Is he better than Tommy Macavoy was?
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Old 04-05-2015, 14:57
TelevisionUser
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So it will be a survey of postal voters - otherwise what is the point and is it even legal to publish a poll after polls open. The BBC and Sky etc wouldn't be able to publish it - so why bother?
I'm not sure that it will be a representative sample of voters and if it isn't then it's pretty much useless as a poll. A standard opinion poll under those circumstances would be better and and an exit poll very much better.
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Old 04-05-2015, 15:27
marke09
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Ipsos-MORI always release their final poll in the Standard on the morning election day. Fieldwork finishes the previous evening.
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Old 04-05-2015, 15:34
Ellie_Arbuckle
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Cameron keeps going on about how he only needs to win 23 seats yet the projections have him losing over 20 seats so he really needs to win over 40.
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Old 04-05-2015, 15:44
marke09
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ICM constituency poll for Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam seat due out for the Guardian later
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Old 04-05-2015, 15:47
marke09
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Cameron keeps going on about how he only needs to win 23 seats yet the projections have him losing over 20 seats so he really needs to win over 40.
and with Labour expected to lose 40 seats in Scotland they need to win that number back in England just to stand still
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Old 04-05-2015, 15:47
mossy2103
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ICM constituency poll for Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam seat due out for the Guardian later
Should be interesting. We'll see if Cleggy has made up any ground.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:01
marke09
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Adam Boulton ‏@adamboultonSKY 46s46 seconds ago South East, England

At 10pm Thursday EXIT POLL by GfkNOP/@IpsosMORI for @SkyNews @BBCNews @itvnews & @YouGov Election Day Poll

looks from that that YouGov are doing their own exit poll
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:08
PrincessPerfect
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories

David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed.

The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons.

There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock.


This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:19
mossy2103
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories

David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed.

The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons.

There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock.


This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos.
And it will be chaotic until the Queens Speech vote (which in the above scenario would be likely to be lost), and the ensuing no confidence motion.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:20
Hildaonpluto
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories

David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed.

The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons.

There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock.


This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos.
I suspected as much -pretty desperate and undignified is our Prime Minister I feel.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:27
PrincessPerfect
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And it will be chaotic until the Queens Speech vote (which would be likely to be lost), and the ensuing no confidence motion.
I suspected as much -pretty desperate and undignified is our Prime Minister I feel.
What's hilarious is that Cameron in his bid to shape the political narrative to discredit any Labour arrangement, will (along with Clegg) look absolutely weak in this situation. His government's inability to pass laws, will render it powerless and he'll lack any kind of authority. And as for LDs; well - do MPs and party-members really want to be associated with this kind of chaos? I have to say, I've never had the kind of intense dislike of Clegg that many in this country have had, but he's really looking like an individual absolutely desperate for power for its own sake - and this is the worst kind of politician.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:29
apaul
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Adam Boulton ‏@adamboultonSKY 46s46 seconds ago South East, England

At 10pm Thursday EXIT POLL by GfkNOP/@IpsosMORI for @SkyNews @BBCNews @itvnews & @YouGov Election Day Poll

looks from that that YouGov are doing their own exit poll
Isn't YouGov going back to people they polled earlier and seeing how they voted rather than doing a full exit poll?
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:30
wizzywick
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I suspected as much -pretty desperate and undignified is our Prime Minister I feel.
Is it? I see it as him trying to protect the Union from demands of the SNP because in his eyes they are intent in breaking away from it.

Anyway, he might be able to stay anyway if he gets around 40 more seats than Labour - which isn't an impossibility. I'll be glad when it's all over.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:35
marke09
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everyone especially the media seem to be fixated with what is going to happen after the election than the election itself - lets see what the voters say and take it from there - could be a lot of people with egg on their faces friday if the public vote against the way the polls are telling them they will vote
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:35
Sanguinius
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Cameron gets first dibs at trying to form a government so I don't see the issue here if he has most votes and seats.

If they have most seats then they should try to do a deal with the Lib Dems and DUP and then put forward a Queen Speech. Try and dare Labour and the SNP to vote it down, if they do then they could be real damage for those involved with the general public because they brought a government down. Some Lab MP's are bound to rebel against the leadership, there is already rumbling concerns of legitimacy if Labour do come second in seats.

If Labour has most seats then Cameron has no choice but to immediately resign and let Labour get a shot at it.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:35
Hildaonpluto
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Is it? I see it as him trying to protect the Union from demands of the SNP because in his eyes they are intent in breaking away from it.

Anyway, he might be able to stay anyway if he gets around 40 more seats than Labour - which isn't an impossibility. I'll be glad when it's all over.
As respected political columnist Steve Richards Said today it's a myth that the SNP's increased strong presence in the House of Commons is only going to be an issue under Labour.An absolute myth.The SNP will be problematic for the tories too in a tight parliament it just suits the tory press not to highlight it.
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:43
TelevisionUser
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ICM constituency poll for Nick Clegg Sheffield Hallam seat due out for the Guardian later
Should be interesting. We'll see if Cleggy has made up any ground.
We should compare that new poll with the one from last month which shows a small Labour lead: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04...ield-hallam-3/

In other polling news, Lord Ashcroft has also released details of the local poll for the constituency of Norwich North: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/norwich-north-2/
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:43
wizzywick
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As respected political columnist Steve Richards Said today it's a myth that the SNP's increased strong presence in the House of Commons is only going to be an issue under Labour.An absolute myth.The SNP will be problematic for the tories too in a tight parliament it just suits the tory press not to highlight it.
Oh totally. I agree. The SNP are in what is likely (in my opinion) to be in a once in a lifetime position where they can be as problematic as they like because the main parties will be reliant on them. Sure, the SNP have said they won't support a Tory Government, but on certain policies where it favours Scotland, chances are they will vote in favour of them. They will just say that they take the credit for taking the nastiness out of the Tories. They won't do any deals with them though but they will insist on things to ensure that they abstain on voting rather than voting them down.

I really wish though, it was going to be a majority of one or the other because then, come Saturday, we can just get on with things and not mention a General Election again until 2020!
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:45
mithy73
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...lib-dem-tories

David Cameron and Nick Clegg are now entirely focused on how they can cling on to power even if their coalition government loses its Commons majority, Labour officials have claimed.

The polls are consistently indicating a hung parliament, with the Tories gaining slightly more seats than Labour but the Liberal Democrats losing so many that a combined Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not get a majority in the Commons.

There are now reports that Cameron will in this scenario insist on staying on in Downing Street regardless of his ability to pass laws in the Commons, rather than allow Labour a chance to form a government – leading to a constitutional gridlock.


This was something I've guessed at in the last week or so, but it looks like post May 7th will look like absolute chaos.
I don't think this is any different from when Brown remained in No. 10 until it was clear that the Tories and Lib Dems had reached an agreement. I think this is all covered by conventions drawn up in the wake of the last election anyway: Cameron should stay put until it's clear that someone else has the confidence of the majority of the House. Given that it looks like Labour won't have enough allies to form a majority coalition, it is reasonable for Cameron to assert that confidence in a Labour minority Government be tested by an actual vote in the Commons.

He has good reason to do so. As things stand, if we're looking at something in the realms of C 280 L 262 LD 26 SNP 55 DUP 9 SF 5 SDLP 3 PC 3 UKIP 3 G 1 RES 1 Ind 1 Speaker 1 (Ladbrokes GB / William Hill NI favourites to win, as of 1 May), and if we're to take at face value the various political statements made on the subject of coalitions, we have as possible coalition configurations:

C-LD coalition
For: C (280), LD (26) - Total 306
Against: L (262), SNP (55), SDLP (3), PC (3), UKIP (3), G (1), RES (1) - Total 328
Abstain: DUP (9), SF (5), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 16

C-DUP-UKIP coalition
For: C (280), DUP (9), UKIP (3) - Total 292
Against: L (262), LD (26), SNP (55), SDLP (3), PC (3), G (1), RES (1) - Total 351
Abstain: SF (5), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 7

L-LD-SDLP coalition
For: L (262), LD (26), SDLP (3) - Total 291
Against: C (280), DUP (9), UKIP (3), RES (1) - Total 293
Abstain: SNP (55), SF (5), PC (3), G (1), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 65

L-LD coalition
For: L (262), LD (26) - Total 288
Against: C (280), UKIP (3), RES (1) - Total 284
Abstain: SNP (55), DUP (9), SF (5), SDLP (3), PC (3), G (1), Ind (1), Speaker (1) - Total 78

Assumptions:

* C will not coalesce with anyone but LD, DUP, UKIP
* L will not coalesce with anyone but LD and SDLP
* Nationalists/Greens will vote against any C-led coalition
* Nationalists/Greens will abstain on a vote on any L-led coalition
* DUP will abstain if not in coalition, unless that coalition contains Nationalists
* SF will maintain their abstentionist policy and not vote
* UKIP will vote against any non-UKIP coalition
* George Galloway will vote against everyone

On those numbers and those assumptions, only a L-LD coalition would gain the confidence of the House - and that only on a knife-edge, vulnerable to by-election defeats and dependent on support or abstentions from "friendly" or "semi-friendly" Opposition members.

(What's happened to the list tag?)
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Old 04-05-2015, 16:46
PrincessPerfect
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The issue isn't that Cameron will get first chance to form a government, it's that he'll attempt to cling power regardless of whether his government can actually pass laws or not.

As has been said before this Con-LD-DUP-Ukip coalition which Cameron seems intend to form to stay in power seems fanticful; because it seems incredibly unlikely Clegg will be able to convince his party to go into a coalition with three right-wing parties, including a Tory Right deeply resentful at LD 'influence' in the last five years.

As for Labour and the SNP voting down the Queen's Speech - why not? Surely it is up to Cameron to get a majority and not for Labour to prop up his government so that he doesn't look bad? The SNP will, for sure vote down the Queen's Speech - they've nothing to lose from that either. Cameron will find even if a Queen's Speech does go through a government held hostage by a large right-wing bloc of the Conservative Right, UKIP, and the DUP is beyond his control and he'll have serious issues regarding controlling his own party, and passing laws in any case.
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