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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3) |
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#2426 |
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Posts: 56,123
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Quote:
That will put his mind at ease.
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#2427 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
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Quote:
Clegg hanging on it appears
Perhaps Clegg will hold on far more comfortably in the end than anybody thought he might. Quote:
rather surprising that the Sheffield Hallam constituents had to be reminded as to who their MP was, seeing as Clegg has had such a high profile over the past 5 years!
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#2428 |
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 68,712
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Quote:
Not as crazy as it sounds.
From the vaults: Three quarters of people 'cannot name their local MP' Granted, this was across the board AFAICT and didn't target constituencies with prominent MPs, but it does give an indication. Not everyone is a politics nerd like us lot. a) the leader of a major political party b) the leader of the party in a coalition over the past five years c) the deputy PM and has had much more media coverage over the past five years, and more so over the past four months than many other MPs the conclusion is simply astonishing. |
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#2429 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Quote:
Not as crazy as it sounds.
From the vaults: Three quarters of people 'cannot name their local MP' Granted, this was across the board AFAICT and didn't target constituencies with prominent MPs, but it does give an indication. Not everyone is a politics nerd like us lot. |
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#2430 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 10,135
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I suspect there will be a lot more Tactical voting from Tories in LibDem areas to keep out Labour.
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#2431 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
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I suspect Tory voters will be voting heavily Lib Dem in many Lab-Lib Marginals.
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#2432 |
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Join Date: Nov 2013
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Quote:
But seeing as Clegg is
a) the leader of a major political party b) the leader of the party in a coalition over the past five years c) the deputy PM and has had much more media coverage over the past five years, and more so over the past four months than many other MPs the conclusion is simply astonishing. |
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#2433 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: mid west wales
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For vast majority of people they go and vote for a candidate and thats probably the last they will hear from them until the next election so not much of a shock that people dont know who there MP is
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#2434 |
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Join Date: Nov 2011
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Quote:
I suspect Tory voters will be voting heavily Lib Dem in many Lab-Lib Marginals.
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#2435 |
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Join Date: Oct 2006
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Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 13m13 minutes ago
Sheffield Hallam constituency poll ICM with candidates not named LAB 34% LDEM 32% CON 21% UKIP 8% GRNS 4% |
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#2436 |
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
Posts: 11,377
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Quote:
But seeing as Clegg is
a) the leader of a major political party b) the leader of the party in a coalition over the past five years c) the deputy PM and has had much more media coverage over the past five years, and more so over the past four months than many other MPs the conclusion is simply astonishing. |
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#2437 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Quote:
I suspect there will be a lot more Tactical voting from Tories in LibDem areas to keep out Labour.
Quote:
For vast majority of people they go and vote for a candidate and thats probably the last they will hear from them until the next election so not much of a shock that people dont know who there MP is
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#2438 |
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Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Leeds
Posts: 10,280
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A bad start to the week for Cameron. I'm not so much thinking of Russell Brand's incident on the road to Damascus, but Lord Scriven's little pearl wouldn't have done much to shore up trust in him.
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#2439 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Lib Dems will prob tactically vote for Labour in Con/Lab marginals, or maybe not even tactically, maybe they just switched to Labour. How well did Labour do in Hallam in 2010
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#2440 |
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I think the trouble with this reliance on tactical voting - both in Scotland, and in England is that I doubt many people will know the political situation within their constituency to vote tactically in the first place. This is why I doubt that tactical voting will be enough to stop the SNP in Scotland - and why I also think the same in regard to Lib-Lab marginals. If voters in Sheffield Hallam don't know their MP is Nick Clegg, and need reminding of that, then it's doubtful other voters will know who their MPs are, and quite frankly may not even recognise their names given politicians don't seem to be that well known in the country.
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#2441 |
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Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: The South, thankfully.
Posts: 2,089
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Blimey. I thought Cleggy was big favourite.
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#2442 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Quote:
Lib Dems will prob tactically vote for Labour in Con/Lab marginals, or maybe not even tactically, maybe they just switched to Labour. How well did Labour do in Hallam in 2010
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#2443 |
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Inactive Member
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 542
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Quote:
I think the trouble with this reliance on tactical voting - both in Scotland, and in England is that I doubt many people will know the political situation within their constituency to vote tactically in the first place. This is why I doubt that tactical voting will be enough to stop the SNP in Scotland - and why I also think the same in regard to Lib-Lab marginals. If voters in Sheffield Hallam don't know their MP is Nick Clegg, and need reminding of that, then it's doubtful other voters will know who their MPs are, and quite frankly may not even recognise their names given politicians don't seem to be that well known in the country.
And in Jim Murphys seat the Tories also seem to be flocking to his aide. |
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#2444 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
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A bad start to the week for Cameron. I'm not so much thinking of Russell Brand's incident on the road to Damascus, but Lord Scriven's little pearl wouldn't have done much to shore up trust in him.
At the end of the day, everyone knows that he isn't going to get a majority, but he isn't going to adnmit that publicly is he? Nor is Clegg going to admnit that the LibDems will lose loads of seats. It's irrelevant. He revealed a private conversation that has no bearing on anything other than the leaders know what we already know - but still need to fight for a majority. |
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#2445 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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I'm still not sure the Tories will deft vote for Clegg but we shall see
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#2446 |
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Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Brizzle
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Quote:
Blimey. I thought Cleggy was big favourite.
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#2447 |
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Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Leeds
Posts: 10,280
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I don't know. Lord Scriven was on Victoria Derbyshire this morning. She asked him, rather bluntly, "Why did you publicly tweet what was in reality, a private conversation?" The audience applauded her quite enthusiastically, and that was in Sheffield.
At the end of the day, everyone knows that he isn't going to get a majority, but he isn't going to adnmit that publicly is he? Nor is Clegg going to admnit that the LibDems will lose loads of seats. It's irrelevant. He revealed a private conversation that has no bearing on anything other than the leaders know what we already know - but still need to fight for a majority. You are right about the fact that we already know that they know they probably won't get a majority. But it's the timing of it all, coming on top of the West Ham/Aston Villa thing, dominating the news and once throwing more light on Cameron's alleged lack of trustworthiness with but days to go before polling. |
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#2448 |
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Berkshire
Posts: 27,919
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Yes I saw that - some of the audience applauded him not all, They were probably the invited Tories and their enthusiastic applause demonstrated the level of the perceived threat, in my opinion.
You are right about the fact that we already know that they know they probably won't get a majority. But it's the timing of it all, coming on top of the West Ham/Aston Villa thing, dominating the news and once throwing more light on Cameron's alleged lack of trustworthiness with but days to go before polling. Cameron is a bit of a muppet though - he is quite often caught out on things. It isn't anything new. I think we have to give the public a bit more credit for using their own intelligence when it comes to making decisions regarding their opinion on this. In my opinion Scrivens came across as bitter and twisted, and perhaps the press/media should ask Clegg if it is true? |
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#2449 |
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Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Bexleyheath, SE London
Posts: 17,464
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Quote:
Despite this ICM poll (and the bookies who have him as favourite to win it) I'm still half-expecting a Portillo moment with Clegg. I am sceptical that tactical voting will amount to as much as this poll would indicate - though you never know.
Quote:
On the raw results, before adjustment for voters who are likely to make it to the polling station, Coppard and Clegg are running neck and neck. It is the greater propensity for Clegg’s voters to say they will definitely show up and vote which propels him into the lead.
Following the initial adjustment, ICM gives Clegg a lead of four points : Clegg is on 40% and Coppard on 36%. ICM then made a second adjustment, which assumes – in keeping with its practice in its nationwide opinion polls – that a proportion of voters who won’t say or don’t know who they will support will go back to the party they backed last time. Because Clegg starts out with an outright majority of the local vote in 2010, this adjustment is helpful to Clegg. ICM concludes this boosts his vote to 42%, leaving him seven points clear. Election night will confirm whether this adjustment, which has worked well in predictions in nationwide elections, also holds good in the Hallam seat. Without the second adjustment, the Lib Dem advantage is sufficiently narrow that it is on the edge of the margin of error. It is also the sort of difference which Labour might have hoped to overturn by an energetic campaign to turn out the vote. |
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#2450 |
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Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 1,797
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Someone on the guardian worked out that as it was only 500 people sampled it read 200 said Clegg and 170 said Coppard. Only 30 more for Clegg and a phone vote
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