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Opinion Polls Discussion Thread (Part 3)


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Old 04-05-2015, 17:50
Hound of Love
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That will put his mind at ease.
And Cameron's.
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:50
Jason C
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Clegg hanging on it appears
...and it'll seemingly be hard for the local Labour activists to stop it if there are only 3% of Green votes available to be squeezed.

Perhaps Clegg will hold on far more comfortably in the end than anybody thought he might.

rather surprising that the Sheffield Hallam constituents had to be reminded as to who their MP was, seeing as Clegg has had such a high profile over the past 5 years!
Surely that depends on whether he's kept up a presence in his constituency alongside being deputy PM?
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:52
mossy2103
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Not as crazy as it sounds.

From the vaults: Three quarters of people 'cannot name their local MP'

Granted, this was across the board AFAICT and didn't target constituencies with prominent MPs, but it does give an indication. Not everyone is a politics nerd like us lot.
But seeing as Clegg is

a) the leader of a major political party

b) the leader of the party in a coalition over the past five years

c) the deputy PM and has had much more media coverage over the past five years, and more so over the past four months than many other MPs

the conclusion is simply astonishing.
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:54
Ellie_Arbuckle
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Not as crazy as it sounds.

From the vaults: Three quarters of people 'cannot name their local MP'

Granted, this was across the board AFAICT and didn't target constituencies with prominent MPs, but it does give an indication. Not everyone is a politics nerd like us lot.
Clegg is one of the most famous men in the country. The fact people he represents don't seem to know his name puts huge doubt on the method of ICM.
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:54
PrestonAl
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I suspect there will be a lot more Tactical voting from Tories in LibDem areas to keep out Labour.
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:54
MattN
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I suspect Tory voters will be voting heavily Lib Dem in many Lab-Lib Marginals.
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:56
MattXfactor
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But seeing as Clegg is

a) the leader of a major political party

b) the leader of the party in a coalition over the past five years

c) the deputy PM and has had much more media coverage over the past five years, and more so over the past four months than many other MPs

the conclusion is simply astonishing.
My guess is that when they simply asked who will you vote for the people in the constituency thought more about who they want in government, so the Tories all probably just said "yeah we'd vote Tory" but then when reminded that its Clegg for the Lib Dems there mind goes too "oh crap we need him for any chance of a coalition happening!".
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:56
marke09
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For vast majority of people they go and vote for a candidate and thats probably the last they will hear from them until the next election so not much of a shock that people dont know who there MP is
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:57
Soppyfan
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I suspect Tory voters will be voting heavily Lib Dem in many Lab-Lib Marginals.
Possibly, but I don't think it'll mean that they'll do the same in the Tory-Lib marginals.
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:57
marke09
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Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 13m13 minutes ago

Sheffield Hallam constituency poll ICM with candidates not named LAB 34% LDEM 32% CON 21% UKIP 8% GRNS 4%
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:58
mithy73
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But seeing as Clegg is

a) the leader of a major political party

b) the leader of the party in a coalition over the past five years

c) the deputy PM and has had much more media coverage over the past five years, and more so over the past four months than many other MPs

the conclusion is simply astonishing.
It's not quite so astonishing if you consider that a fair number of people may not be so well aware of what Parliamentary constituency they live in.
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Old 04-05-2015, 17:59
Ellie_Arbuckle
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I suspect there will be a lot more Tactical voting from Tories in LibDem areas to keep out Labour.
Like in Scotland.. where it now appears Tories. Lib Dems and Labour are all tactically voting to keep the SNP out. I just hope it works in Gordon.

For vast majority of people they go and vote for a candidate and thats probably the last they will hear from them until the next election so not much of a shock that people dont know who there MP is
For the average Joe maybe but not Nick Clegg. I think its incredibly patronising to the people of Hallam to suggest they have no idea he represents them. Remember these pollsters only target people who are registered to vote. So they will have a rough idea of who their candidates are.....
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:03
Zeus
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A bad start to the week for Cameron. I'm not so much thinking of Russell Brand's incident on the road to Damascus, but Lord Scriven's little pearl wouldn't have done much to shore up trust in him.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:06
Amanda_Raymond
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Lib Dems will prob tactically vote for Labour in Con/Lab marginals, or maybe not even tactically, maybe they just switched to Labour. How well did Labour do in Hallam in 2010
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:06
PrincessPerfect
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I think the trouble with this reliance on tactical voting - both in Scotland, and in England is that I doubt many people will know the political situation within their constituency to vote tactically in the first place. This is why I doubt that tactical voting will be enough to stop the SNP in Scotland - and why I also think the same in regard to Lib-Lab marginals. If voters in Sheffield Hallam don't know their MP is Nick Clegg, and need reminding of that, then it's doubtful other voters will know who their MPs are, and quite frankly may not even recognise their names given politicians don't seem to be that well known in the country.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:06
Pat_Smith
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Blimey. I thought Cleggy was big favourite.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:08
Ellie_Arbuckle
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Lib Dems will prob tactically vote for Labour in Con/Lab marginals, or maybe not even tactically, maybe they just switched to Labour. How well did Labour do in Hallam in 2010
They were 3rd. So to come that far would indicate a massive swing but I'm doubtful of the poll given Hallam people really should know Nick Clegg is their MP.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:09
Ellie_Arbuckle
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I think the trouble with this reliance on tactical voting - both in Scotland, and in England is that I doubt many people will know the political situation within their constituency to vote tactically in the first place. This is why I doubt that tactical voting will be enough to stop the SNP in Scotland - and why I also think the same in regard to Lib-Lab marginals. If voters in Sheffield Hallam don't know their MP is Nick Clegg, and need reminding of that, then it's doubtful other voters will know who their MPs are, and quite frankly may not even recognise their names given politicians don't seem to be that well known in the country.
Well in Gordon the voting is mainly to stop Alex Salmond getting in. So the Tory and Labour voters seem to be backing the Lib Dem candidate.

And in Jim Murphys seat the Tories also seem to be flocking to his aide.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:10
wizzywick
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A bad start to the week for Cameron. I'm not so much thinking of Russell Brand's incident on the road to Damascus, but Lord Scriven's little pearl wouldn't have done much to shore up trust in him.
I don't know. Lord Scriven was on Victoria Derbyshire this morning. She asked him, rather bluntly, "Why did you publicly tweet what was in reality, a private conversation?" The audience applauded her quite enthusiastically, and that was in Sheffield.

At the end of the day, everyone knows that he isn't going to get a majority, but he isn't going to adnmit that publicly is he? Nor is Clegg going to admnit that the LibDems will lose loads of seats. It's irrelevant. He revealed a private conversation that has no bearing on anything other than the leaders know what we already know - but still need to fight for a majority.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:11
Amanda_Raymond
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I'm still not sure the Tories will deft vote for Clegg but we shall see
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:14
mithy73
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Blimey. I thought Cleggy was big favourite.
Despite this ICM poll (and the bookies who have him as favourite to win it) I'm still half-expecting a Portillo moment with Clegg. I am sceptical that tactical voting will amount to as much as this poll would indicate - though you never know.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:17
Zeus
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I don't know. Lord Scriven was on Victoria Derbyshire this morning. She asked him, rather bluntly, "Why did you publicly tweet what was in reality, a private conversation?" The audience applauded her quite enthusiastically, and that was in Sheffield.

At the end of the day, everyone knows that he isn't going to get a majority, but he isn't going to adnmit that publicly is he? Nor is Clegg going to admnit that the LibDems will lose loads of seats. It's irrelevant. He revealed a private conversation that has no bearing on anything other than the leaders know what we already know - but still need to fight for a majority.
Yes I saw that - some of the audience applauded him not all, They were probably the invited Tories and their enthusiastic applause demonstrated the level of the perceived threat, in my opinion.

You are right about the fact that we already know that they know they probably won't get a majority. But it's the timing of it all, coming on top of the West Ham/Aston Villa thing, dominating the news and once throwing more light on Cameron's alleged lack of trustworthiness with but days to go before polling.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:23
wizzywick
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Yes I saw that - some of the audience applauded him not all, They were probably the invited Tories and their enthusiastic applause demonstrated the level of the perceived threat, in my opinion.

You are right about the fact that we already know that they know they probably won't get a majority. But it's the timing of it all, coming on top of the West Ham/Aston Villa thing, dominating the news and once throwing more light on Cameron's alleged lack of trustworthiness with but days to go before polling.
I am a little suspicious about the BBC's management of the election coverage. For instance, is it fair that Miliband is appearing on two BBC interviews this week? Once this morning on Today and another tomorrow? Cameron will not feature in any more interviews. Is this the first time that Leaders Interviews have been conducted during election week itself?

Cameron is a bit of a muppet though - he is quite often caught out on things. It isn't anything new. I think we have to give the public a bit more credit for using their own intelligence when it comes to making decisions regarding their opinion on this. In my opinion Scrivens came across as bitter and twisted, and perhaps the press/media should ask Clegg if it is true?
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:26
Jason C
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Despite this ICM poll (and the bookies who have him as favourite to win it) I'm still half-expecting a Portillo moment with Clegg. I am sceptical that tactical voting will amount to as much as this poll would indicate - though you never know.
Somebody on UK Polling Report has looked into the detail of the poll and its methodologies to qualify the finalised percentages:

On the raw results, before adjustment for voters who are likely to make it to the polling station, Coppard and Clegg are running neck and neck. It is the greater propensity for Clegg’s voters to say they will definitely show up and vote which propels him into the lead.

Following the initial adjustment, ICM gives Clegg a lead of four points : Clegg is on 40% and Coppard on 36%.

ICM then made a second adjustment, which assumes – in keeping with its practice in its nationwide opinion polls – that a proportion of voters who won’t say or don’t know who they will support will go back to the party they backed last time.

Because Clegg starts out with an outright majority of the local vote in 2010, this adjustment is helpful to Clegg. ICM concludes this boosts his vote to 42%, leaving him seven points clear.

Election night will confirm whether this adjustment, which has worked well in predictions in nationwide elections, also holds good in the Hallam seat.

Without the second adjustment, the Lib Dem advantage is sufficiently narrow that it is on the edge of the margin of error. It is also the sort of difference which Labour might have hoped to overturn by an energetic campaign to turn out the vote.
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Old 04-05-2015, 18:32
Amanda_Raymond
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Someone on the guardian worked out that as it was only 500 people sampled it read 200 said Clegg and 170 said Coppard. Only 30 more for Clegg and a phone vote
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