Sorry I can't find the link to the interview so you'll have to take my word for it (and I hope I'm not taking it out of context) but I remember reading an interview with Moffat where he said Matt only wanted to do 3 series when he took the role and that he had persuaded him to do a little extra (I took the little extra to mean the 50th and Christmas special, but it could just be the Christmas episode I guess).

Anyway, if there hadn't been the split season and Matt had stuck to his original plan of only doing 3 series then he actually would have left a year earlier, but that's opening up another can of worms...

Hartnell 0 ℅
Troughton 0 %
Pertwee 0 %
Tom baker 1℅
Division 5℅
Colin baker 1 %
McCoy 1 %
Mcgann 10 %
Hurt 1 %
Eccleston 2 %
Tennant 50%
Smith 50 %
Capaldi 40 %

I'd like to think that McGann, Eccleston, Tennant, Smith and Capaldi could factor into the 60th in some way but it's another eight years, lol.

That sounds good, but it was May 2014, He hadn't exactly been out of the role for very long and was probably still on the high of having enjoyed the job and still sort of being the current doctor as Capaldi's series hadn't even aired yet. He wasn't a fan before and it's likely he hasn't had time to watch series 8 since. It's not exactly like he can be classed as having a bond with the show through being a fan, because he isn't. It's for that reason that I have my doubts that if in 8 years he has a sparkling film career and is one of hollywoods most sought after actors for example, that he would neccesarily make time in his schedule to go back to 'that tv show job' he did for a few years.

Then again, he may recognize that it is the show that has made him a household name and that if he is ultra famous then, would likely credit it as 'the role that got me where I am today', and as such may feel loyalty to go back for that reason.

Without knowing him personally, it's hard to know either way. With Tennant and Capaldi they ooze love for the show and the role of the doctor so much that you can just tell that if they are fit and able they'd always want to return, but with Matt smith, I really cant be sure.

Not judging your opinion or anything, but just out of curiosity, why do you think Capaldi is less likely than Tennant or smith?

I find this obsession baffling. It's all mindless conjecture. Anyway Mark my words. Doctor Who will not be on air when it's the 60th anniversary.

Never head the phrase 'it's fun to speculate?'. Given that the forum is predominately opinion or speculation based, you could argue that every thread apart from the spoiler thread is pointless talk or mindless conjecture, but obviously a lot of people including you like to indulge in that sort of thing between the episodes or the forum wouldn't exist.

If you find that to you there is no merit in a particular thread, then simply go to another one. There is no need to post in said thread to tell everyone they are indulging in mindless conjecture because they choose to participate in it.

Ah, but that's just conjecture, Nostradamusfingers.

High five bro!

Well, New Who has defied my expectations every step of the way. If I had been asked to make a prediction on the longevity of the announced series in 2003, I would have said 6 x 45 minutes and then that's it.

It was very lucky in many ways. The assertion to do it as a continuation rather than attempt it as a remake, Taking chances on the people and styles that seemed right for the age (As in when people then would have thought of the doctor, they would be picturing eccentric's in silly outfits, so it was very brave to cast the new doctor as grumpy northener in a leather jacket, and making his companion someone who was best known as a former pop star), The man bringing it back being not only a passionate fan but someone who understood not to make it a show for the old fans as he was trying to bring in a new audience also. Plus the well done marketing campaign (I'd barely heard of doctor who before but it seemed to be everywhere in the media at that time). I still think the 'do you want to come with me' ad's promising 'ghosts from the past and aliens from the future seems like an ad that stands up to any today, even though it's 10 years old. They worded as though it was the ultimate cool show in sci fi, which it pretty much is really.

Basically the stars aligned so to speak to make it the success it is. Had any of the above elements been different it may well have gone as people were expecting it too, but I bet many of those people were happy to be pleasantly proved wrong.

Well said, DBB. Remember....if a certain actor who gets a lot of stick hadn't engaged a new audience as well as oldsters like me in the most important role, who's to say I'd be looking back at Tennant and Smith with fondness, and enjoying Mr Capaldi. It's been a great trip and it shows no sign of stopping anytime soon.

Yes, if that same certain actor hadn't nailed the role in the way he did, there may not be anniversary episodes around for certain posters (especially the one who's user name ends in 523) to complain about them not returning to.

Although it has to be said the writing was an extremely important factor also.

1st - 7th Unlikely (1st-3rd are already dead)
8th- 50/50
9th- 100% Not
10th-12th- 100% Yes

Don't think any of us can say 100% for any of them, as they probably couldn't even say that themselves at this stage. I'd probably say:

8th - probably about 90% or more chance he would be willing, but likely only about a 10% chance they'd actually ask him. ( based on the fact they didn't put him in the episode in the 50th (apart from the obvious old clip stuff along with 1-7), just in a minisode only die hard fans would watch, and I think in 8 years he'd be even less relevant to the current audience then.)

9th - 90% unlikely
10th/12th - 99% likely
11th - I'd have to go with 50% likelyhood either way, as I really can't tell with him.

I think that it is due to age. Capaldi is statistically less likely to still be alive for the 60th.

That seems harsh. He's only 57, which is not exactly seen as really old these days. Plus for someone of his age he seems full of vigour and manages to play the doctor as well as the 30 year old who came before him, and it's not as though they've had to cut down the amount of running or action for him.

I think he'd be pretty miffed if he knew some people were giving him a predicted life expectancy of less than another 8 years.

P.s not to mention Patrick Troughton and Jon Pertwee appeared in the five doctors when they were both in their 60's, at a time when life expectancy would have been lower than it is now, and Tom Baker made an appearance in the 50th at the age of 79.

I've just looked at your age and you've really surprised me.

I think there is a fair chance Doctor Who will still be on in some form in 2023.

It'll be a talent show!

Strictly Come The D Factor's Got Talent

I suppose it depends on whether the show is controlled by BBC Wales or BBC Worldwide? I can see BBC Wales resting the show for its own good at some point in the future if UK viewing figures fall. BBC Worldwide, however, will want it to keep going in some form for as long as it's an international money-spinner.

Considering it's been guaranteed until at least 2020, I don't think it's too much of a stretch of the imagination to think that it will continue another three years after that.

"Guaranteed" is a strong word. While it's very encouraging news, such a commitment is unlikely to be unconditional. In the worst case scenario where Series 9 performs abominably, the BBC will not just keep such an expensive series on air for another four years.

It was not meant to be harsh. I hope that he lives to be 100.

I just think that this was the reason for lower percentage given by the poster who gave it.

As we age, our odds of being around in ten years goes down statistically. Slowly at first, then much faster later. It's just life. Maybe the poster meant something else, but this is what naturally came to my mind when I read the percentages.

I am 46 (47 in September). Why does this surprise you?